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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
09.05.2026 13:30 UTC Match prediction
09.05.2026 13:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

VfB Stuttgart - Bayer Leverkusen

Germany Football
VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart
3 : 1
Finished
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction VfB Stuttgart - Bayer Leverkusen May 9, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like VfB Stuttgart.

Line favourite market consensus: VfB Stuttgart. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.24 / X 3.98 / 2 2.80
  • 1X2 market: VfB Stuttgart 42.4% / X 23.8% / Bayer Leverkusen 33.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 71.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.5%
1 42.3%
X 23.8%
2 33.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.1%
Over 2.5 71.4%
Under 2.5 28.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 09.05.2026 13:30 UTC
Match center

VfB Stuttgart - Bayer Leverkusen

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.95 market consensus · line only
X 4.04 market consensus · line only
1 1.02 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
X2 1.64 market consensus · line only
12 1.24 market consensus · line only
1X 1.42 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.66 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.35 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.71 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.28 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.32 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 3.30 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 3.33 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.30 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.20 45.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.32 43.1% 2.20 45.5%
X 4.00 25.0% 4.16 24.0% 3.80 26.3% 4.00 25.0% 4.00 25.0% 3.90 25.6%
2.75 36.4% 2.95 33.9% 2.75 36.4% 2.80 35.7% 2.72 36.8% 2.75 36.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 3.35 29.9% 3.32 30.1% 3.25 30.8% 3.40 29.4% 3.35 29.9% 3.40 29.4% 3.40 29.4% 3.26 30.7% 3.30 30.3%
yes 1.30 76.9% 1.29 77.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.29 77.5% 1.30 76.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.65 60.6% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.57 63.7%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.20 83.3%
home_draw 1.42 70.4% 1.46 68.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.47 68.0% 1.40 71.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.5 1.10 90.9% 1.05 95.2%
Over 1.75 — 1.07 93.5%
Over 2.0 — 1.09 91.7%
Over 2.25 — 1.20 83.3%
Over 2.5 1.33 75.2% 1.31 76.3%
Over 2.75 — 1.37 73.0%
Over 3.5 1.80 55.6% —
Over 4.5 2.75 36.4% —
Over 5.5 4.75 21.1% —
Under 1.5 6.50 15.4% —
Under 2.5 3.30 30.3% —
Under 3.5 2.00 50.0% —
Under 4.5 1.44 69.4% —
Under 5.5 1.18 84.8% —
Match center
VfB Stuttgart
D D L W L
02.05 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart 3:3 1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
26.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart 1:1 Werder BremenWerder Bremen
19.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart 2:4 BavariyaBavariya
12.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart 4:0 Hamburger SVHamburger SV
04.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart 0:2 Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
2.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
5 Points
Bayer Leverkusen
W W L W W
02.05 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 4:1 RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
25.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 2:1 1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
18.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 1:2 FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
11.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 1:0 Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 6:3 VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.8 Scored
1.4 Conceded
12 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyVfB Stuttgart - Bayer Leverkusen

VfB Stuttgart
1 matches total
Bayer Leverkusen
VfB Stuttgart: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Bayer Leverkusen: 0 (0%)
Biggest win VfB Stuttgart 4:1 (10.01 17:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (4:1, 10.01 17:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 4

Match history

10.01 17:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart
4:1
Bayer Leverkusen