Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
22.09.2024 15:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

VfB Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund

Germany Futbol
VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart
5 : 1
Finished
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction VfB Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund 22 сентября 2024

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like VfB Stuttgart.

Line favourite market consensus: VfB Stuttgart. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.33 / X 3.81 / 2 2.98
  • 1X2 market: VfB Stuttgart 41.8% / X 25.6% / Borussia Dortmund 32.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 2.7%
1 41.8%
X 25.6%
2 32.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 22.09.2024 15:30 UTC
Match center

VfB Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.98 market consensus · line only
X 3.81 market consensus · line only
1 2.33 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.65 market consensus · line only
12 1.31 market consensus · line only
1X 1.44 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
П1 2.33 42.9%
Х 3.81 26.3%
П2 2.98 33.6%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 1.65 60.6%
home_away 1.31 76.3%
home_draw 1.44 69.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
ТБ 3.5 2.14 46.7%
ТМ 3.5 1.77 56.5%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
П1 1.73 57.8%
П2 2.20 45.5%
Match center
VfB Stuttgart
W
14.09 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart 3:1 Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
3.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
3 Points
Borussia Dortmund
W
13.09 18:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 4:2 1. FC Heidenheim1. FC Heidenheim
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
4.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
3 Points