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Bundesliga Germany

12.04.2026 15:30 UTC Match prediction

12.04.2026 15:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart - Hamburger SV

Germany Football

Stadium MKhP-Arena

VfB Stuttgart

4 : 0

Finished

Hamburger SV

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 VfB Stuttgart — 68%

1 · VfB Stuttgart ✓ Pick68.1%

market72%

X · draw19.1%

market17%

2 · Hamburger SV12.8%

market11%

Model estimate: win VfB Stuttgart 68.1%, draw 19.1%, win Hamburger SV 12.8%. Model favourite — VfB Stuttgart.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction VfB Stuttgart - Hamburger SV April 12, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like VfB Stuttgart.

Strongest: VfB Stuttgart - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.33 / X 5.73 / 2 8.31
1X2 market: VfB Stuttgart 71.8% / X 16.6% / Hamburger SV 11.5%
Glicko: VfB Stuttgart 68.1% / X 19.1% / Hamburger SV 12.8%
Total 2.5: over probability 38.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.7%

1 ✓ Pick 71.8%

X 16.7%

2 11.5%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.1%

Over 2.5 69.8%

Under 2.5 30.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 71.1%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 12.04.2026 15:30 UTC

Stadium MKhP-Arena (Shtutgart)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model VfB Stuttgart 68%

💹 Market VfB Stuttgart 7184%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

VfB Stuttgart - Hamburger SV

VfB Stuttgart: Win 1.30 VfB Stuttgart: Draw 5.75 Hamburger SV Win: 8.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov VfB Stuttgart bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov VfB Stuttgart menshe 2.5: 1.80 Individualnyy…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 4:0

Events 18

Statistics 24

Lineups 36

min Event Player Team

21' 21' Normal Goal | Angelo Stiller | assist/sub out: Jamie Leweling VfB Stuttgart

24' 24' Yellow Card | Chema Andrés VfB Stuttgart

32' 32' Normal Goal | Chris Führich | assist/sub out: Ermedin Demirović VfB Stuttgart

56' 56' Normal Goal | Maximilian Mittelstädt | assist/sub out: Chris Führich VfB Stuttgart

60' 60' Substitution 1 | Rayan Philippe | assist/sub out: Otto Stange Hamburger SV

60' 60' Substitution 2 | Albert Grønbæk | assist/sub out: Robert Glatzel Hamburger SV

66' 66' Goal Disallowed - offside | Ermedin Demirović VfB Stuttgart

70' 70' Substitution 2 | Chema Andrés | assist/sub out: Nikolas Nartey VfB Stuttgart

Metric VfB Stuttgart Hamburger SV SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 3.48 0.71 final

Zablokirovannye udary 7 0 final

Shots off target 5 4 final

Shots on target 11 5 final

Udary vsego 23 9 final

Fouls soversheno 10 14 final

Zheltye kartochki 2 1 final

Offsides 5 1 final

VfB Stuttgart #3 R. Hendriks, #6 Angelo Stiller, #7 M. Mittelstädt, #9 E. Demirović, #10 C. Führich, #18 Jamie Leweling, #22 L. Assignon, #24 J. Chabot, #26 Deniz Undav, #30 José María Andrés Baixauli, #33 Alexander Nübel

Hamburger SV #1 Daniel Heuer Fernandes, #2 W. Mikelbrencis, #8 Daniel Elfadli, #11 R. Königsdörffer, #14 R. Philippe, #17 W. Omari, #20 Fábio Vieira, #21 N. Remberg, #23 A. Grønbæk, #25 J. Torunarigha

Player Team Metric SStats

Alexander Nübel VfB Stuttgart football.player.assists 0

Alexander Nübel VfB Stuttgart Dribling popytki 2

Alexander Nübel VfB Stuttgart Edinoborstva vyigrano 2

Alexander Nübel VfB Stuttgart Seyvy 0

Alexander Nübel VfB Stuttgart football.player.minutes_played 90

Alexander Nübel VfB Stuttgart Klyuchevye pasy 34

Alexander Nübel VfB Stuttgart Reyting 4

Alexander Nübel VfB Stuttgart Reyting (staryy) 7.3

Alexander Nübel VfB Stuttgart Otbory vsego 21

Angelo Stiller VfB Stuttgart football.player.assists 0

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

VfB Stuttgart 73.4% 68.1% market and model agree

Draw 16.0% 19.1% draw risk

Hamburger SV 10.6% 12.8%

xG - 2.13 : 0.79

Total 2.5 Over 38.3% - Under 61.7%

Model check - - Difference 0.05

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 68.1% / 19.1% / 12.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,598 / 1,459 VfB Stuttgart / Hamburger SV

RD 76 / 79 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 8.31 market consensus · no value · model 12.8%

X 5.73 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 68.1%

Double chance

X2 3.32 market consensus · no value · model 31.9%

12 1.13 market consensus · no value · model 80.9%

1X 1.08 market consensus · no value · model 87.3%

Handicap

2 -0.5 3.35 market consensus · line only

2 -1 2.71 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 6.70 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.31 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 38.3%

Under 2.5 3.12 market consensus · weak value +92.6% · model 61.7%

Both teams to score

No 2.26 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.59 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.33 75.2%	1.32 75.8%	1.37 73.0%	1.33 75.2%	1.36 73.5%	1.30 76.9%
X	5.70 17.5%	6.00 16.7%	5.84 17.1%	5.75 17.4%	6.00 16.7%	5.50 18.2%
	7.00 14.3%	8.40 11.9%	8.60 11.6%	8.50 11.8%	8.00 12.5%	9.50 10.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.30 43.5%	2.33 42.9%	2.24 44.6%	2.20 45.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.30 43.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.21 45.3%	2.23 44.8%
yes	1.57 63.7%	1.61 62.1%	1.59 62.9%	1.62 61.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.57 63.7%	1.55 64.5%	1.59 62.9%	1.60 62.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
draw_away	3.20 31.3%	3.36 29.8%	3.40 29.4%	3.30 30.3%	3.40 29.4%	3.40 29.4%
home_away	1.10 90.9%	1.17 85.5%	1.14 87.7%	1.14 87.7%	1.11 90.1%	1.08 92.6%
home_draw	1.08 92.6%	1.09 91.7%	1.08 92.6%	1.11 90.1%	1.05 95.2%	1.06 94.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	—	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.5	1.09 91.7%	—	1.07 93.5%
Over 1.75	—	—	1.08 92.6%
Over 2.5	1.35 74.1%	—	—
Over 3.25	—	1.82 55.0%	—
Over 3.5	1.85 54.1%	1.91 52.4%	—
Over 4.5	3.00 33.3%	—	—
Over 5.5	5.25 19.1%	—	—
Under 1.5	7.00 14.3%	—	—
Under 2.5	3.10 32.3%	—	—
Under 3.25	—	2.08 48.1%	—
Under 3.5	1.90 52.6%	1.99 50.3%	—
Under 4.5	1.38 72.5%	—	—
Under 5.5	1.15 87.0%	—	—

Match center

VfB Stuttgart

Founded 1893

Hamburger SV

Founded 1887

Match center

VfB Stuttgart

AK A. Karazor Yellow Cards

LJ L. JovanoviÄ Back Injury

Hamburger SV

YP Y. Poulsen Thigh Injury

AS A. Sambi Lokonga Thigh Injury

VfB Stuttgart Founded: 1893

Hamburger SV Founded: 1887

Match center

VfB Stuttgart

L W W D W

04.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart 0:2 Borussia Dortmund

22.03 18:30 UTC Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart 5:2 FC Augsburg

15.03 18:30 UTC Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart 1:0 RB Leipzig

07.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart 2:2 Maynts

01.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart 4:0 VfL Wolfsburg

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

2.4 Scored

1.2 Conceded

10 Points

Hamburger SV

D L D W L

04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Hamburger SV 1:1 FC Augsburg

21.03 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Hamburger SV 2:3 Borussia Dortmund

14.03 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Hamburger SV 1:1 1. FC Köln

07.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Hamburger SV 2:1 VfL Wolfsburg

04.03 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

Hamburger SV 0:1 Bayer Leverkusen

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

1.2 Scored

1.4 Conceded

5 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyVfB Stuttgart - Hamburger SV

VfB Stuttgart

1 matches total

Hamburger SV

VfB Stuttgart: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Hamburger SV: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Hamburger SV 1:2 (30.11 14:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 30.11 14:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 1

Match history

30.11 14:30 UTC

Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart

1:2

Hamburger SV

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.