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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
26.04.2026 13:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction
26.04.2026 13:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

VfB Stuttgart - Werder Bremen

Germany Football
Stadium MKhP-Arena
VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart
1 : 1
Finished
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 VfB Stuttgart — 61%

1 · VfB Stuttgart ✓ Pick60.6%
market62%
X · draw21.8%
market22%
2 · Werder Bremen17.6%
market16%

Model estimate: win VfB Stuttgart 60.6%, draw 21.8%, win Werder Bremen 17.6%. Model favourite — VfB Stuttgart.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction VfB Stuttgart - Werder Bremen April 26, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like VfB Stuttgart.

Strongest: VfB Stuttgart - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.52 / X 4.27 / 2 5.90
  • 1X2 market: VfB Stuttgart 61.8% / X 22.1% / Werder Bremen 16.1%
  • Glicko: VfB Stuttgart 60.6% / X 21.8% / Werder Bremen 17.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 82.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.2%
1 ✓ Pick 62.0%
X 22.1%
2 16.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 7.0%
Over 2.5 65.4%
Under 2.5 34.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 11/11
Confidence 65.0%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 26.04.2026 13:30 UTC
Stadium MKhP-Arena (Shtutgart)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model VfB Stuttgart 61%
💹 Market VfB Stuttgart 6184%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

VfB Stuttgart - Werder Bremen

VfB Stuttgart: Win 1.53 VfB Stuttgart: Draw 4.20 Werder Bremen Win: 6.25 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.10 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov VfB Stuttgart bolshe 2.5: 2.25 Individualnyy total golov VfB Stuttgart menshe 2.5: 1.57 Individualny…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 12
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
18' 18' Normal Goal | Jens Stage | assist/sub out: Yukinari Sugawara Sara Van Emst Werder Bremen
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Dan-Axel Zagadou | assist/sub out: Ramon Hendriks VfB Stuttgart
57' 57' Substitution 2 | Lorenz Assignon | assist/sub out: Chris Führich VfB Stuttgart
57' 57' Substitution 3 | Tiago Tomás | assist/sub out: Ermedin Demirović VfB Stuttgart
61' 61' Normal Goal | Ermedin Demirović | assist/sub out: Bilal El Khannouss VfB Stuttgart
65' 65' Substitution 1 | Niklas Stark | assist/sub out: Maximilian Wöber A. Onaiwu Werder Bremen
65' 65' Substitution 2 | Jovan Milošević | assist/sub out: Justin Njinmah Werder Bremen
78' 78' Substitution 4 | Jamie Leweling | assist/sub out: Badredine Bouanani VfB Stuttgart
Metric VfB Stuttgart Werder Bremen SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.82 0.93 final
Zablokirovannye udary 8 2 final
Shots off target 8 4 final
Shots on target 4 3 final
Udary vsego 20 9 final
Fouls soversheno 8 10 final
Zheltye kartochki 0 1 final
Offsides 0 1 final
VfB Stuttgart #2 O. Deman, #3 Yukinari Sugawara, #4 N. Stark, #5 A. Pieper, #6 J. Stage, #14 S. Lynen, #18 Cameron Puertas, #19 J. Milošević, #20 Romano Schmid, #30 M. Backhaus, #31 Abdoul Karim Coulibaly
Werder Bremen #6 Angelo Stiller, #7 M. Mittelstädt, #8 Tiago Tomás, #11 Bilal El Khannouss, #14 L. Jaquez, #18 Jamie Leweling, #22 L. Assignon, #23 D. Zagadou, #26 Deniz Undav, #30 José María Andrés Baixauli, #33 Alexander Nübel
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Karazor Werder Bremen Seyvy 0
Alexander Nübel Werder Bremen football.player.assists 0
Alexander Nübel Werder Bremen Seyvy 1
Alexander Nübel Werder Bremen football.player.minutes_played 90
Alexander Nübel Werder Bremen Klyuchevye pasy 36
Alexander Nübel Werder Bremen Reyting 2
Alexander Nübel Werder Bremen Reyting (staryy) 6.2
Alexander Nübel Werder Bremen Otbory vsego 25
Angelo Stiller Werder Bremen football.player.assists 0
Angelo Stiller Werder Bremen Dribling popytki 6
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
VfB Stuttgart 64.0% 60.6% market and model agree
Draw 21.1% 21.8% draw risk
Werder Bremen 15.0% 17.6%
xG - 1.91 : 0.92
Total 2.5 Over 82.4% - Under 17.6%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 60.6% / 21.8% / 17.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,603 / 1,431 VfB Stuttgart / Werder Bremen
RD 75 / 74 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.90 market consensus · no value · model 17.6%
X 4.27 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.52 market consensus · no value · model 60.6%
Double chance
X2 2.47 market consensus · no value · model 39.4%
12 1.20 market consensus · no value · model 78.2%
1X 1.13 market consensus · no value · model 82.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.52 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.00 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 5.10 market consensus · line only
2 +1 9.00 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.43 market consensus · value +17.9% · model 82.4%
Under 2.5 2.70 market consensus · no value · model 17.6%
Both teams to score
No 2.44 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.51 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.51 66.2% 1.58 63.3% 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.52 65.8% 1.53 65.4%
X 4.40 22.7% 4.26 23.5% 4.00 25.0% 4.20 23.8% 4.10 24.4% 4.40 22.7%
5.60 17.9% 6.65 15.0% 5.50 18.2% 6.25 16.0% 6.60 15.2% 6.00 16.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.45 40.8% 2.37 42.2% 2.45 40.8% 2.38 42.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.40 41.7% 2.34 42.7% 2.55 39.2%
yes 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.47 68.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.50 40.0% 2.53 39.5% 2.40 41.7% 2.38 42.0% 2.57 38.9% 2.50 40.0%
home_away 1.15 87.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.22 82.0% 1.17 85.5%
home_draw 1.14 87.7% 1.14 87.7% 1.14 87.7% 1.14 87.7% 1.13 88.5% 1.11 90.1%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.5 1.14 87.7% 1.10 90.9%
Over 1.75 — 1.12 89.3%
Over 2.0 — 1.15 87.0%
Over 2.25 — 1.29 77.5%
Over 2.5 1.44 69.4% 1.43 69.9%
Over 2.75 — 1.52 65.8%
Over 3.5 2.10 47.6% —
Over 4.5 3.40 29.4% —
Over 5.5 6.25 16.0% —
Under 1.5 5.50 18.2% —
Under 2.5 2.70 37.0% —
Under 3.5 1.73 57.8% —
Under 4.5 1.30 76.9% —
Under 5.5 1.11 90.1% —
Match center
VfB Stuttgart
Founded 1893
Werder Bremen
Founded 1899
Match center
VfB Stuttgart
L W L W W
19.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart 2:4 BavariyaBavariya
12.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart 4:0 Hamburger SVHamburger SV
04.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart 0:2 Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
22.03 18:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart 5:2 FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
15.03 18:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart 1:0 RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
2.4 Scored
1.6 Conceded
9 Points
Werder Bremen
W L L W L
18.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Werder Bremen 3:1 Hamburger SVHamburger SV
12.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Werder Bremen 1:3 1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Werder Bremen 1:2 RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Werder Bremen 1:0 VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
15.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Werder Bremen 0:2 MayntsMaynts
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.6 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyVfB Stuttgart - Werder Bremen

VfB Stuttgart
2 matches total
Werder Bremen
VfB Stuttgart: 1 (50%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Werder Bremen: 1 (50%)
Biggest win VfB Stuttgart 4:0 (14.12 18:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (4:0, 14.12 18:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

5 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 5

Match history

14.12 18:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart
4:0
Werder Bremen
13.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart
1:2
Werder Bremen
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.