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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
09.05.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction
09.05.2026 16:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

VfL Wolfsburg - Bayern München

Germany Football
Stadium Volkswagen Arena
VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
0 : 1
Finished
Bayern München
Bayern München

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction VfL Wolfsburg - Bayern München May 9, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayern München.

Line favourite market consensus: Bayern München. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 5.40 / X 5.10 / 2 1.48
  • 1X2 market: VfL Wolfsburg 17.5% / X 18.6% / Bayern München 63.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 77.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.7%
1 17.5%
X 18.6%
2 63.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.4%
Over 2.5 77.7%
Under 2.5 22.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 09.05.2026 16:30 UTC
Match center

VfL Wolfsburg - Bayern München

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.09 Fonbet · line only
X 7.20 Fonbet · line only
1 5.27 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.15 market consensus · line only
12 1.16 market consensus · line only
1X 2.60 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.17 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.04 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.47 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.68 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.21 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 4.21 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 3.29 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.30 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
5.70 17.5% 5.66 17.7% 5.00 20.0% 5.25 19.1% 5.80 17.2% 5.00 20.0%
X 4.90 20.4% 5.38 18.6% 4.60 21.7% 5.25 19.1% 5.40 18.5% 4.75 21.1%
1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.48 67.6% 1.50 66.7% 1.40 71.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 3.25 30.8% 3.44 29.1% 3.40 29.4% 3.40 29.4% 3.10 32.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.14 31.9% 3.30 30.3%
yes 1.30 76.9% 1.31 76.3% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.29 77.5% 1.29 77.5% 1.31 76.3% 1.29 77.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.13 88.5% 1.16 86.2% 1.17 85.5% 1.17 85.5% 1.17 85.5% 1.13 88.5%
home_away 1.12 89.3% 1.17 85.5% 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5% 1.17 85.5% 1.13 88.5%
home_draw 2.70 37.0% 2.70 37.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.38 42.0% 2.72 36.8% 2.63 38.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.5 1.06 94.3% 1.06 94.3%
Over 1.75 — 1.03 97.1%
Over 2.0 — 1.04 96.2%
Over 2.25 — 1.13 88.5%
Over 2.5 1.22 82.0% —
Over 3.5 1.57 63.7% —
Over 4.5 2.25 44.4% —
Over 5.5 3.55 28.2% —
Over 6.5 6.25 16.0% —
Under 1.5 8.50 11.8% —
Under 2.5 4.20 23.8% —
Under 3.5 2.35 42.6% —
Under 4.5 1.62 61.7% —
Under 5.5 1.28 78.1% —
Under 6.5 1.11 90.1% —
Match center
VfL Wolfsburg
D D W L L
03.05 17:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg 1:1 FrayburgFrayburg
25.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg 0:0 Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
18.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg 2:1 Union BerlinUnion Berlin
11.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg 1:2 Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg 3:6 Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
2.0 Conceded
5 Points
Bayern München
D W W W W
02.05 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 3:3 1. FC Heidenheim1. FC Heidenheim
25.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 4:3 MayntsMaynts
19.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 4:2 VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
11.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 5:0 FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli
04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 3:2 FrayburgFrayburg
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
3.8 Scored
2.0 Conceded
13 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyVfL Wolfsburg - Bayern München

VfL Wolfsburg
1 matches total
Bayern München
VfL Wolfsburg: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Bayern München: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Bavariya 1:8 (11.01 16:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 9 goals (1:8, 11.01 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 8
8 Goals conceded 1

Match history

11.01 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg
1:8
Bavariya