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Bundesliga Germany

18.04.2026 13:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction

18.04.2026 13:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

Werder Bremen - Hamburger SV

Germany Football

Stadium Vezershtadion

Werder Bremen

3 : 1

Finished

Hamburger SV

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Werder Bremen — 45%

1 · Werder Bremen45.2%

X · draw26.3%

2 · Hamburger SV28.5%

Model estimate: win Werder Bremen 45.2%, draw 26.3%, win Hamburger SV 28.5%. Model favourite — Werder Bremen.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Werder Bremen - Hamburger SV April 18, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Werder Bremen.

Strongest: Werder Bremen - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.96 / X 3.62 / 2 3.74
1X2 market: Werder Bremen 48.4% / X 26.2% / Hamburger SV 25.4%
Glicko: Werder Bremen 45.2% / X 26.3% / Hamburger SV 28.5%
Total 2.5: over probability 51.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%

1 48.4%

X 26.2%

2 25.4%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%

Over 2.5 55.1%

Under 2.5 44.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 47.2%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 18.04.2026 13:30 UTC

Stadium Vezershtadion (Bremen)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Werder Bremen 45%

💹 Market Werder Bremen 4842%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Werder Bremen - Hamburger SV

Werder Bremen: Win 1.95 Werder Bremen: Draw 3.60 Hamburger SV Win: 3.75 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.73 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Werder Bremen bolshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov Werder Bremen menshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:1

Events 19

Statistics 26

Lineups 39

min Event Player Team

37' 37' Normal Goal | Jens Stage | assist/sub out: Yukinari Sugawara Sara Van Emst Werder Bremen

41' 41' Normal Goal | Robert Glatzel | assist/sub out: Nicolás Capaldo Hamburger SV

45' 45' Yellow Card | Olivier Deman S. Antipin Werder Bremen

45' 45' Yellow Card | Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer Hamburger SV

57' 57' Normal Goal Werder Bremen

58' 58' Yellow Card | Miro Muheim Hamburger SV

61' 61' Substitution 1 | Jovan Milošević | assist/sub out: Marco Grüll Werder Bremen

66' 66' Substitution 1 | Albert Grønbæk | assist/sub out: Philip Otele Hamburger SV

Metric Werder Bremen Hamburger SV SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.74 0.57 final

Zablokirovannye udary 2 3 final

Shots off target 6 5 final

Shots on target 10 3 final

Udary vsego 18 11 final

Fouls soversheno 14 14 final

Red cards 0 1 final

Zheltye kartochki 4 3 final

Werder Bremen #2 O. Deman, #3 Yukinari Sugawara, #5 A. Pieper, #6 J. Stage, #11 J. Njinmah, #14 S. Lynen, #18 Cameron Puertas, #19 J. Milošević, #20 Romano Schmid, #30 M. Backhaus, #31 Abdoul Karim Coulibaly

Hamburger SV #1 Daniel Heuer Fernandes, #2 W. Mikelbrencis, #9 R. Glatzel, #11 R. Königsdörffer, #17 W. Omari, #20 Fábio Vieira, #21 N. Remberg, #23 A. Grønbæk, #24 N. Capaldo, #25 J. Torunarigha, #28 M. Muheim

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Pieper Werder Bremen Dribling popytki 3

A. Pieper Werder Bremen Edinoborstva vsego 1

A. Pieper Werder Bremen Edinoborstva vyigrano 4

A. Pieper Werder Bremen Fouls soversheno 1

A. Pieper Werder Bremen Seyvy 0

A. Pieper Werder Bremen football.player.minutes_played 99

A. Pieper Werder Bremen Klyuchevye pasy 53

A. Pieper Werder Bremen Reyting (staryy) 6.3

A. Pieper Werder Bremen Perekhvaty 1

A. Pieper Werder Bremen Otbory vsego 44

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Werder Bremen 48.7% 45.2% market and model agree

Draw 25.8% 26.3% draw risk

Hamburger SV 25.5% 28.5%

xG - 1.44 : 1.09

Total 2.5 Over 51.3% - Under 48.7%

Model check - - Difference 0.04

Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 45.2% / 26.3% / 28.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,419 / 1,450 Werder Bremen / Hamburger SV

RD 75 / 78 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.74 market consensus · no value · model 28.5%

X 3.62 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.96 market consensus · no value · model 45.2%

Double chance

X2 1.84 market consensus · no value · model 54.8%

12 1.27 market consensus · no value · model 73.7%

1X 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 71.5%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.87 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.45 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.60 market consensus · line only

2 +1 6.80 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.73 market consensus · no value · model 51.3%

Under 2.5 2.12 market consensus · weak value +3.2% · model 48.7%

Both teams to score

No 2.24 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.61 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.96 51.0%	2.00 50.0%	2.02 49.5%	1.91 52.4%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%
X	3.50 28.6%	3.85 26.0%	3.74 26.7%	3.50 28.6%	3.60 27.8%	3.55 28.2%
	3.65 27.4%	3.60 27.8%	3.94 25.4%	3.60 27.8%	3.75 26.7%	3.85 26.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	2.20 45.5%	2.29 43.7%	2.20 45.5%	2.30 43.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.25 44.4%	2.20 45.5%	2.17 46.1%
yes	1.62 61.7%	1.63 61.4%	1.61 62.1%	1.62 61.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.60 62.5%	1.60 62.5%	1.61 62.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.80 55.6%	1.88 53.2%	1.83 54.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.87 53.5%	1.83 54.6%
home_away	1.25 80.0%	1.32 75.8%	1.29 77.5%	1.28 78.1%	1.28 78.1%	1.22 82.0%
home_draw	1.25 80.0%	1.30 76.9%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.28 78.1%	1.22 82.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.05 95.2%	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75	—	—	1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.11 90.1%
Over 1.5	1.25 80.0%	—	1.21 82.6%
Over 1.75	—	—	1.25 80.0%
Over 2.5	1.73 57.8%	—	—
Over 2.75	—	1.95 51.3%	—
Over 3.5	2.80 35.7%	—	—
Over 4.5	5.00 20.0%	—	—
Under 0.5	9.50 10.5%	—	—
Under 1.5	3.95 25.3%	—	—
Under 2.5	2.10 47.6%	—	—
Under 2.75	—	1.95 51.3%	—
Under 3.5	1.42 70.4%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.17 85.5%	—	—

Match center

Werder Bremen

Founded 1899

Hamburger SV

Founded 1887

Match center

Werder Bremen

L L W L W

12.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Werder Bremen 1:3 1. FC Köln

04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Werder Bremen 1:2 RB Leipzig

21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Werder Bremen 1:0 VfL Wolfsburg

15.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Werder Bremen 0:2 Maynts

08.03 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

Werder Bremen 4:1 Union Berlin

2 Wins

0 Draws

3 Losses

1.4 Scored

1.6 Conceded

6 Points

Hamburger SV

L D L D W

12.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga

Hamburger SV 0:4 VfB Stuttgart

04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Hamburger SV 1:1 FC Augsburg

21.03 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Hamburger SV 2:3 Borussia Dortmund

14.03 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Hamburger SV 1:1 1. FC Köln

07.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Hamburger SV 2:1 VfL Wolfsburg

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

1.2 Scored

2.0 Conceded

5 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyWerder Bremen - Hamburger SV

Werder Bremen

1 matches total

Hamburger SV

Werder Bremen: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Hamburger SV: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Hamburger SV 2:3 (07.12 14:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 5 goals (2:3, 07.12 14:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 3

3 Goals conceded 2

Match history

07.12 14:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Werder Bremen

2:3

Hamburger SV

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.