Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
05.10.2024 13:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

Werder Bremen - SC Freiburg

Germany Futbol
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen
0 : 1
Finished
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Werder Bremen - SC Freiburg 5 октября 2024

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like SC Freiburg.

Line favourite market consensus: SC Freiburg. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.75 / X 3.46 / 2 2.66
  • 1X2 market: Werder Bremen 35.4% / X 28.1% / SC Freiburg 36.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 54.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 2.9%
1 35.4%
X 28.1%
2 36.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 2.9%
Over 2.5 54.0%
Under 2.5 46.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 05.10.2024 13:30 UTC
Match center

Werder Bremen - SC Freiburg

Form 3/4 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.66 market consensus · line only
X 3.46 market consensus · line only
1 2.75 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.50 market consensus · line only
12 1.35 market consensus · line only
1X 1.53 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.80 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.11 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
П1 2.75 36.4%
Х 3.46 28.9%
П2 2.66 37.6%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 1.50 66.7%
home_away 1.35 74.1%
home_draw 1.53 65.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
ТБ 2.5 1.80 55.6%
ТМ 2.5 2.11 47.4%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
П1 1.97 50.8%
П2 1.90 52.6%
Match center
Werder Bremen
W L W
29.09 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
Werder Bremen 4:3 1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
21.09 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Werder Bremen 0:5 BavariyaBavariya
15.09 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
Werder Bremen 2:1 MayntsMaynts
2 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
3.0 Conceded
6 Points
SC Freiburg
L W W L
28.09 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
SC Freiburg 0:3 FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli
21.09 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
SC Freiburg 3:0 1. FC Heidenheim1. FC Heidenheim
14.09 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
SC Freiburg 2:1 VfL BochumVfL Bochum
01.09 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
SC Freiburg 0:2 BavariyaBavariya
2 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.3 Scored
1.5 Conceded
6 Points