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China. League 1
China. League 1
01.08.2026 11:00 UTC
01.08.2026 11:00 UTC
Not started

China. League 1

Changchun Yatai - Shijiazhuang Gongfu

Football
Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
- : -
Not started
S
Shijiazhuang Gongfu
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Changchun Yatai — 55%

1 · Changchun Yatai55.0%
X · draw19.4%
2 · Shijiazhuang Gongfu25.6%

Model estimate: win Changchun Yatai 55.0%, draw 19.4%, win Shijiazhuang Gongfu 25.6%. Model favourite — Changchun Yatai.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Changchun Yatai (odds1.73) Score 1:0 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Chanchun Yatay: probability 50% vs 58% on the line (odds 1.73)
  • • no edge over the line (-8 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Changchun Yatai - Shijiazhuang Gongfu August 1, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Changchun Yatai. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.73 / X 3.47 / 2 4.26

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 10.1%
1 52.5%
X 26.2%
2 21.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 11:00 UTC
Market 1 52.5% @ 1.73 / X 26.2% @ 3.47 / 2 21.3% @ 4.26
Match center

Changchun Yatai - Shijiazhuang Gongfu

Form 4/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Changchun Yatai 52.5% 55.0% market and model agree
Draw 26.2% 19.4% draw risk
Shijiazhuang Gongfu 21.3% 25.6%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 55.0% / 19.4% / 25.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,519 / 1,452 Changchun Yatai / Shijiazhuang Gongfu
RD 187 / 190 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,144-1,894 / 1,072-1,832 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.26 market consensus · no value · model 25.6%
X 3.47 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.73 market consensus · no value · model 55.0%
Handicap
2 +1 1.55 market consensus · line only
1 -1 2.30 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.87 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.80 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.87 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.83 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.87 53.5%
yes 1.83 54.6%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.29 43.7%
X 2.06 48.5%
5.30 18.9%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.88 53.2%
Under 1 1.82 55.0%

Handicap

Outcome Leon
2.30 43.5%
1.55 64.5%
Match center
Changchun Yatai
W L W W
25.07 09:00 UTC China: League One Standings
Changchun Yatai 2:1 Nankin SitiNankin Siti
17.07 09:00 UTC China: League One Standings
Changchun Yatai 1:5 Usi UgouUsi Ugou
05.07 09:30 UTC China: League One Standings
Changchun Yatai 3:1 Meychzhou KhakkaMeychzhou Khakka
13.06 05:30 UTC China: League One Standings
Changchun Yatai 2:1 Dalian K'un City
3 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
9 Points
Shijiazhuang Gongfu
D D L L D
25.07 09:30 UTC China: League One Standings
Shijiazhuang Gongfu 1:1 Nantun ChzhiyunNantun Chzhiyun
17.07 09:30 UTC China: League One Standings
Shijiazhuang Gongfu 0:0 Yanbyan Londzhin
11.07 09:30 UTC China: League One Standings
Shijiazhuang Gongfu 0:2 Guangdong GZ-Power
04.07 09:00 UTC China: League One Standings
Shijiazhuang Gongfu 1:2 Ningbo Professional
13.06 09:30 UTC China: League One Standings
Shijiazhuang Gongfu 0:0 Suchzhou DongvuSuchzhou Dongvu
0 Wins
3 Draws
2 Losses
0.4 Scored
1.0 Conceded
3 Points