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AI verdict
AI pick Alcoyano
win probability ~37%
confidence Low
best odds 1.01
Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Alcoyano. Full breakdown below.
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✓ Prematch ready
Prematch data
✓Line
✓Form
✓H2H
✓Prediction
14.08.2026 17:30 UTC
Finished
Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27
Alcoyano - Hercules
1
:
0
Finished
Alcoyano take on Hercules on August 14, 2026 in the Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27.
Recent form (W-D-L): Alcoyano 2-2-1, Hercules 1-2-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 37% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Alcoyano — 37%
Model estimate: win Alcoyano 37.3%, draw 29.4%, win Hercules 33.3%. Model favourite — Alcoyano.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Alcoyano (odds2.51)
Score 2:1
confidence 59%
✓ outcome correct
- • Model backs Alkoyano 🇪🇸: probability 59% vs 40% on the line (odds 2.51)
- • edge over the line +19 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 2:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Alcoyano - Hercules August 14, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Alcoyano.
Line favourite Fonbet: Alcoyano. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / X 5.90 / 2 2.72
- Glicko: Alcoyano 37.3% / X 29.4% / Hercules 33.3%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 11.5%
5 books · best price +1.6%
1
35.9%
X
30.0%
2
34.1%
Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Statistics and model
Friendlies ClubsLeague table
Alcoyano
Hercules
Best price
across 11 books
1
2.50
Unibet
X
3.10
BetVictor
2
3.14
1xBet
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Alcoyano
W-D-L 8-1-1
Scored 1.85
Conceded 0.49
xG 1.44
xGA 1.01
Corners 3.0
Hercules
W-D-L 5-3-2
Scored 1.18
Conceded 0.88
xG 1.05
xGA 1.38
Corners 4.0
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
%
Market consensus
Forecast by market
Match result
Alcoyano
36%
2.54
Draw
30%
5.90
Hercules
34%
37.00
Handicap
Alcoyano (0)
51%
1.81
Hercules (0)
49%
11.00
Total
Over 2.5
46%
11.50
Under 2.5
54%
1.76
Both teams to score
Yes
54%
3.35
No
46%
1.98
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Alcoyano
1
:
1
Hercules
12.10
X3.02
23.73
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Match center
Start
14.08.2026 17:30 UTC
Market
1 64.8% @ 1.01 / X 11.1% @ 5.90 / 2 24.1% @ 2.72
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community
Alcoyano 50%
📐 Math model
Alcoyano 37%
💹 Market
Alcoyano 36%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center
Alcoyano - Hercules
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
8
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:0
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Alcoyano
35.9%
37.3%
market and model agree
Draw
30.0%
29.4%
draw risk
Hercules
34.1%
33.3%
1X2: 5 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
37.3% / 29.4% / 33.3%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,700 / 1,394
Alcoyano / Hercules
RD
291 / 209
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,118-2,283 / 977-1,812
strength interval
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.63
market consensus · no value · model 33.3%
X
5.90
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.01
Fonbet · no value · model 37.3%
Double chance
12
1.09
Fonbet · no value · model 70.6%
1X
1.02
Fonbet · no value · model 66.7%
X2
1.41
market consensus · no value · model 62.7%
Handicap
2 0
1.90
market consensus · line only
1 0
1.01
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.98
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
1.01
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.25
Fonbet · line only
Yes
3.35
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Kambi BetMGM | Kambi Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.25 80.0% | 1.98 50.5% | 1.98 50.5% |
| yes | 3.35 29.9% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.70 58.8% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet | Kambi BetMGM | Kambi Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.25 80.0% | 1.32 75.8% | 1.09 91.7% | 1.27 78.7% | 1.27 78.7% |
| 1x | 1.34 74.6% | 1.42 70.4% | 1.02 98.0% | 1.35 74.1% | 1.35 74.1% |
| x2 | 1.39 71.9% | 1.47 68.0% | 10.50 9.5% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.38 72.5% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.22 31.1% | |
| X | 2.01 49.8% |
| 3.42 29.2% |
Handicap
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | 1.04 96.2% | — | |
| — | — | 11.50 8.7% | — | |
| — | — | 12.00 8.3% | — | |
| 1.78 56.2% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.01 99.0% | 1.81 55.3% | |
| — | — | 7.60 13.2% | — | |
| — | — | 1.01 99.0% | — | |
| — | — | 1.01 99.0% | — | |
| 1.88 53.2% | 1.90 52.6% | 11.00 9.1% | 1.93 51.8% |
Match center
Alcoyano
Team form
Hercules
10
Matches
10
13
Goals
11
1.3
Per match
1.1
5
Wins
4
4
Draws
2
1
Losses
4
Form & head-to-head
H2H 0-0-2, avg 2.0 gls
2025-03-09 · Alkoyano 1:2 Erkules
2024-12-15 · Alkoyano 0:1 Erkules
Source: ruscore
Odds · 5 bookmakers
Best price: 1 2.5 (Pari) · X 3.15 (Pari) · 2 2.7 (Pari)
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 2.5 | 3.15 | 2.7 |
| Winline | 2.49 | 3.05 | 2.7 |
| Fonbet | 2.5 | 3.15 | 2.7 |
| Betcity | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.65 |
| Liga Stavok | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.7 |
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Alcoyano
W
D
L
D
W
Alcoyano
La Nucia 1:2 Alcoyano
Alcoyano
San Sebastian Reyes 1:1 Alcoyano
Alcoyano
Alcoyano 0:2 San Sebastian Reyes
Alcoyano
Porreres 0:0 Alcoyano
Alcoyano
Alcoyano 2:0 Sant Andreu
2
Wins
2
Draws
1
Losses
1.0
Scored
0.8
Conceded
8
Points
Hercules
D
D
D
W
W
Hercules 0:0 Castellon
Hercules
UCAM Murcia 1:1 Hercules
Hercules
Hercules 1:1 Gimnastic Tarragona
Hercules
Algeciras 0:2 Hercules
Hercules
Hercules 2:1 Ibiza UD
Hercules
2
Wins
3
Draws
0
Losses
1.2
Scored
0.6
Conceded
9
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyAlcoyano - Hercules
Alcoyano
8
matches total
Alcoyano: 2 (25%)
Draws:4 (50%)
Hercules: 2 (25%)
Biggest win
Hercules 1:2 (09.03.25, 10:30)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
3 goals (1:2, 09.03.25, 10:30)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
1:1 (12.08.22, 13:00)
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Alcoyano
1:2
Hercules
Alcoyano
1:0
Hercules
Alcoyano
0:1
Hercules
Alcoyano
1:1
Hercules
Alcoyano
0:0
Hercules
Alcoyano
0:0
Hercules
Alcoyano
0:0
Hercules
Alcoyano
1:0
Hercules
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1
Alcoyano
Team 2
Hercules
Matches in history
46
Biggest draw
2:2
Highest-scoring match
5:2
Primera Federason
14 / 7 / 5 / 2 / 16 / 6
Tovarischeskiy (kluby)
2 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 2
Segunda
22 / 9 / 4 / 9 / 33 / 38
Cup Spain
6 / 1 / 1 / 4 / 8 / 10
Primera
2 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 3 / 2
Unlock the full match prediction
The Alcoyano - Hercules breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alcoyano vs Hercules?
By the PropickAI model, Alcoyano is favoured — about 37% win probability.
What does PropickAI predict for Alcoyano vs Hercules?
The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Alcoyano. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.
When does Alcoyano vs Hercules start?
August 14, 2026.