UEFA Europa League. Third qualifying rounds. Second Leg
UD LogroG±G©s take on Zaragoza on August 14, 2026 in the UEFA Europa League. Third qualifying rounds. Second Leg.
Recent form (W-D-L): UD LogroG±G©s 1-0, Zaragoza 1-0-1. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Zaragoza — 48%
Pure model vs market (2 · Zaragoza): model 29% · market 50% Δ −21 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win UD LogroG±G©s 26.6%, draw 24.9%, win Zaragoza 48.5%. Model favourite — Zaragoza.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Market consensus
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.18 84.8% | 1.24 80.7% |
| 1x | 1.74 57.5% | 1.86 53.8% |
| x2 | 1.18 84.8% | 1.24 80.7% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 4.06 24.6% | |
| X | 2.28 43.9% |
| 2.41 41.5% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | 1.92 52.1% | |
| — | — | 1.50 66.7% | |
| 2.70 37.0% | 2.75 36.4% | — | |
| — | — | 1.82 55.0% | |
| — | — | 2.48 40.3% | |
| 1.38 72.5% | 1.40 71.4% | — |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 1.68 59.5% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.72 58.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 2.00 50.0% | 2.03 49.3% | 2.05 48.8% |
Andorra (And)
Full head-to-head historyUD LogroG±G©s - Zaragoza
The UD LogroG±G©s - Zaragoza breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
August 14, 2026.
