Colombia. Serie A
Deportes Tolima face Independiente Medellin on August 3, 2026 in the Colombia. Serie A.
Recent form (W-D-L): Deportes Tolima 2-0-0, Independiente Medellin 2-0-0. Sportsbooks lean towards Deportes Tolima, an implied 47% to win. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Deportes Tolima — 47%
Pure model vs market (1 · Deportes Tolima): model 38% · market 48% Δ −10 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Deportes Tolima 47.1%, draw 28.4%, win Independiente Medellin 24.5%. Model favourite — Deportes Tolima.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Deportes Tolima.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 16 books (10Bet, 1xBet, Baltbet, Bet365, BetVictor, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.96 51.0% | 1.96 51.0% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.98 50.5% | 2.00 50.0% | 1.93 51.8% | |
| X | 3.30 30.3% | 3.18 31.5% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.20 31.3% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.30 30.3% |
| 3.90 25.6% | 4.05 24.7% | 4.20 23.8% | 4.00 25.0% | 3.90 25.6% | 3.80 26.3% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.89 52.9% |
| yes | 1.84 54.4% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.27 78.7% | 1.32 75.8% |
| 1x | 1.18 84.8% | 1.21 82.6% |
| x2 | 1.71 58.5% | 1.72 58.1% |
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 8.00 12.5% |
| 0_1 | 8.50 11.8% |
| 0_2 | 17.00 5.9% |
| 0_3 | 46.00 2.2% |
| 0_4 | 101.00 1.0% |
| 1_0 | 5.50 18.2% |
| 1_1 | 5.50 18.2% |
| 1_2 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 1_3 | 29.00 3.5% |
| 1_4 | 76.00 1.3% |
| 2_0 | 7.50 13.3% |
| 2_1 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 2_2 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 2_3 | 34.00 2.9% |
| 2_4 | 91.00 1.1% |
| 3_0 | 15.00 6.7% |
| 3_1 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 3_2 | 23.00 4.4% |
Deportivo Kali
Full head-to-head historyDeportes Tolima - Independiente Medellin
The Deportes Tolima - Independiente Medellin breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
