Colombia. Serie A
Deportes Tolima take on Independiente Medellin on August 4, 2026 in the Colombia. Serie A.
Recent form (W-D-L): Deportes Tolima 2-0-0, Independiente Medellin 2-0-0. The bookmaker line makes Deportes Tolima the favourite at about 47%. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Deportes Tolima — 47%
Pure model vs market (1 · Deportes Tolima): model 39% · market 48% Δ −9 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Deportes Tolima 47.0%, draw 28.5%, win Independiente Medellin 24.5%. Model favourite — Deportes Tolima.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Deportes Tolima.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 16 books (10Bet, 1xBet, Baltbet, Bet365, BetVictor, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.99 50.3% | 1.97 50.8% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.93 51.8% | |
| X | 3.20 31.3% | 3.16 31.7% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.20 31.3% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.30 30.3% |
| 3.90 25.6% | 4.01 24.9% | 4.20 23.8% | 4.05 24.7% | 3.70 27.0% | 3.80 26.3% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.87 53.5% |
| yes | 1.87 53.5% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.29 77.5% | 1.32 75.8% |
| 1x | 1.19 84.0% | 1.21 82.6% |
| x2 | 1.74 57.5% | 1.72 58.1% |
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 8.50 11.8% |
| 0_1 | 8.00 12.5% |
| 0_2 | 15.00 6.7% |
| 0_3 | 41.00 2.4% |
| 0_4 | 101.00 1.0% |
| 1_0 | 5.75 17.4% |
| 1_1 | 5.50 18.2% |
| 1_2 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 1_3 | 29.00 3.5% |
| 1_4 | 76.00 1.3% |
| 2_0 | 7.50 13.3% |
| 2_1 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 2_2 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 2_3 | 34.00 2.9% |
| 2_4 | 91.00 1.1% |
| 3_0 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 3_1 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 3_2 | 23.00 4.4% |
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.1 |
| Winline | 2.09 | 3 | 3.45 |
| Fonbet | 2 | 3.1 | 3.9 |
| Betcity | 2 | 3.1 | 3.9 |
Deportivo Kali
Full head-to-head historyDeportes Tolima - Independiente Medellin
The Deportes Tolima - Independiente Medellin breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
