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Colombia. Serie A
Colombia. Serie A
03.08.2026 01:20 UTC
Not started

Colombia. Serie A

Millonarios - Deportivo Pasto

Football
Millonarios
Millonarios
- : -
Not started
D
Deportivo Pasto

Millonarios meet Deportivo Pasto on August 3, 2026 in the Colombia. Serie A.

Recent form (W-D-L): Millonarios 0-1-1, Deportivo Pasto 0-0-2. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Millonarios56%

1 · Millonarios55.7%
X · draw19.2%
2 · Deportivo Pasto25.0%

Model estimate: win Millonarios 55.7%, draw 19.2%, win Deportivo Pasto 25.0%. Model favourite — Millonarios.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Millonarios (odds1.55) Score 2:1 confidence 56%
  • Model backs Milonarios: probability 56% vs 65% on the line (odds 1.55)
  • no edge over the line (-9 pp) — informational only
  • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Millonarios - Deportivo Pasto August 3, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Millonarios. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.55 / X 3.90 / 2 5.60

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.0%
1 59.7%
X 23.7%
2 16.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Primera A
League table
Millonarios
#1129 ptsGP 218-5-832:24
Deportivo Pasto
#734 ptsGP 2310-4-932:33
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Millonarios
W-D-L 4-3-3 Scored 1.59 Conceded 1.10 xG 1.39 xGA 1.08 Corners 6.9
Deportivo Pasto
W-D-L 2-1-7 Scored 1.20 Conceded 1.81 xG 1.14 xGA 1.17 Corners 4.5

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Millonarios
Rating 1536
Deportivo Pasto
Rating 1505

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Millonarios 2 : 1 Deportivo Pasto
11.99
X3.15
23.57

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 03.08.2026 01:20 UTC
Market 1 59.7% @ 1.55 / X 23.7% @ 3.90 / 2 16.5% @ 5.60
Match center

Millonarios - Deportivo Pasto

Form 2/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Millonarios 59.7% 55.7% market and model agree
Draw 23.7% 19.2% draw risk
Deportivo Pasto 16.5% 25.0%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 55.7% / 19.2% / 25.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,374 / 1,291 Milonarios / Deportivo Pasto
RD 291 / 232 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 791-1,956 / 827-1,755 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.60 market consensus · no value · model 25.0%
X 3.90 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.55 market consensus · no value · model 55.7%
Double chance
12 1.21 market consensus · no value · model 80.8%
1X 1.11 market consensus · no value · model 75.0%
X2 2.30 market consensus · no value · model 44.3%
Handicap
2 +1 1.74 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.97 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.94 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.77 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Double chance

Outcome Betcity
12 1.21 82.6%
1x 1.11 90.1%
x2 2.30 43.5%

Handicap

Outcome Betcity
1.97 50.8%
1.74 57.5%

Total

Outcome Betcity
Over 2.5 1.94 51.6%
Under 2.5 1.77 56.5%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Betcity
1.55 64.5%
X 3.90 25.6%
5.60 17.9%
Match center
Millonarios
D L
02.08 01:15 UTC Colombia: Primera A - Clausura Standings
Millonarios 2:2 Khunior
25.07 21:10 UTC Colombia: Primera A - Clausura Standings
Millonarios 0:1 BukaramangaBukaramanga
0 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.5 Conceded
1 Points
Deportivo Pasto
L L
01.08 19:00 UTC Colombia: Primera A - Clausura Standings
Deportivo Pasto 1:2 Agilas Doradas
25.07 19:05 UTC Colombia: Primera A - Clausura Standings
Deportivo Pasto 2:3 Medelin
0 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.5 Scored
2.5 Conceded
0 Points