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Colombia. Serie A
Colombia. Serie A
01.08.2026 01:00 UTC
01.08.2026 01:00 UTC
Not started

Colombia. Serie A

Santa Fe - Once Caldas

Football
S
Santa Fe
- : -
Not started
O
Once Caldas
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Santa Fe — 43%

Pure model vs market (1 · Santa Fe): model 29% · market 46% Δ −17 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Santa Fe43.2%
X · draw27.1%
2 · Once Caldas29.7%

Model estimate: win Santa Fe 43.2%, draw 27.1%, win Once Caldas 29.7%. Model favourite — Santa Fe.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Once Caldas (odds2.04) Score 0:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Onse Kaldas: probability 50% vs 49% on the line (odds 2.04)
  • • legkiy pereves +1 pp nad liniey
  • • Expected score 0:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Santa Fe - Once Caldas August 1, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Santa Fe. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.08 / X 3.51 / 2 3.50

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%
1 45.7%
X 27.1%
2 27.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Primera A
League table
Santa Fe
#635 ptsGP 248-11-536:26
Once Caldas
#437 ptsGP 229-10-338:26
Best price across 13 books
1 2.15 Bet365
X 3.35 10Bet
2 3.60 Betano

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Santa Fe
W-D-L 4-5-1 Scored 1.99 Conceded 0.90 xG 1.19 xGA 1.23 Corners 2.6
Once Caldas
W-D-L 3-5-2 Scored 1.52 Conceded 1.30 xG 1.52 xGA 1.17 Corners 5.2

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Santa Fe
Rating 1585 xG 1.24 Win 43%
Once Caldas
Rating 1595 xG 0.96 Win 28%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Santa Fe 1 : 1 Once Caldas
11.56
X4.05
24.71

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 01:00 UTC
Market 1 45.7% @ 2.08 / X 27.1% @ 3.51 / 2 27.2% @ 3.50
Match center

Santa Fe - Once Caldas

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Santa Fe 44.2% 43.2% market and model agree
Draw 27.4% 27.1% draw risk
Once Caldas 28.4% 29.7%
xG - 1.24 : 0.96

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 43.2% / 27.1% / 29.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,400 / 1,723 Santa Fe / Once Caldas
RD 291 / 229 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 818-1,983 / 1,266-2,180 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.25 market consensus · no value · model 29.7%
X 3.36 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.08 market consensus · no value · model 43.2%
Double chance
12 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 72.9%
1X 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 70.3%
X2 1.67 market consensus · no value · model 56.8%
Handicap
2 0 2.34 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.54 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.94 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.77 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.37 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.52 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 2.37 42.2%
yes 1.52 65.8%

Double chance

Outcome Betcity
12 1.30 76.9%
1x 1.26 79.4%
x2 1.67 59.9%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.62 38.2%
X 2.25 44.4%
3.54 28.3%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.57 63.7%
Under 1 2.26 44.3%
Match center
Santa Fe
L
26.07 19:05 UTC Colombia: Primera A - Clausura Standings
Santa Fe 1:2 Agilas Doradas
0 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
0 Points
Once Caldas
W
26.07 23:15 UTC Colombia: Primera A - Clausura Standings
Once Caldas 5:1 Kukuta
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
5.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historySanta Fe - Once Caldas

Santa Fe
0 matches total
Once Caldas
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history