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Colombia. Serie B
Colombia. Serie B
02.08.2026 01:00 UTC
02.08.2026 01:00 UTC
Not started

Colombia. Serie B

Cancún - Leones Negros UDG

Football
C
Cancún
- : -
Not started
L
Leones Negros UDG

Cancún face Leones Negros UDG on August 2, 2026 in the Colombia. Serie B.

Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Cancún — 49%

Pure model vs market (1 · Cancún): model 34% · market 51% Δ −17 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Cancún49.5%
X · draw26.0%
2 · Leones Negros UDG24.6%

Model estimate: win Cancún 49.5%, draw 26.0%, win Leones Negros UDG 24.6%. Model favourite — Cancún.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Leones Negros UDG (odds2.37) Score 0:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Leones Negros: probability 50% vs 42% on the line (odds 2.37)
  • • edge over the line +8 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 0:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Cancún - Leones Negros UDG August 2, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Cancún. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.85 / X 3.54 / 2 4.12

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.6%
1 50.7%
X 26.5%
2 22.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Liga de Expansión MX
League table
Cancún
not in table
Leones Negros UDG
#73 ptsGP 11-0-04:2
Best price across 13 books
1 1.87 Unibet
X 3.60 Bet365
2 4.20 Bet365

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Cancún
W-D-L 4-5-1 Scored 1.60 Conceded 1.20 xG 1.21 xGA 1.43
Leones Negros UDG
W-D-L 2-4-4 Scored 1.30 Conceded 1.52 xG 1.26 xGA 1.47

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Cancún
Rating 1583 xG 1.43 Win 47%
Leones Negros UDG
Rating 1538 xG 1.00 Win 26%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center
Start 02.08.2026 01:00 UTC
Market 1 50.7% @ 1.85 / X 26.5% @ 3.54 / 2 22.8% @ 4.12
Match center

Cancún - Leones Negros UDG

Form 0/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line
More needed
Form championat, soccer365, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Cancún 50.4% 49.5% market and model agree
Draw 26.2% 26.0% draw risk
Leones Negros UDG 23.4% 24.6%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 49.5% / 26.0% / 24.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,700 Cancun FC / Leones Negros
RD 350 / 291 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 1,118-2,283 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.96 market consensus · no value · model 24.6%
X 3.50 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.83 market consensus · no value · model 49.5%
Double chance
12 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 74.0%
1X 1.19 market consensus · no value · model 75.4%
X2 1.78 market consensus · no value · model 50.5%
Handicap
2 +0.5 1.90 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.47 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.80 market consensus · line only
1 -1 2.50 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.87 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.83 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.90 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.80 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.90 52.6%
yes 1.80 55.6%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet
12 1.23 81.3%
1x 1.19 84.0%
x2 1.78 56.2%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.33 42.9%
X 2.22 45.1%
4.55 22.0%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 2.54 39.4%
Under 1.5 1.42 70.4%
Match center
Leones Negros UDG
W
25.07 20:00 UTC Mexico: Liga Ekspanson MKh - Apertura Standings
Leones Negros UDG 4:2 Tlaskala
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
4.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
3 Points