Post-match / SStats
Score
1:1
Events
15
Statistics
26
Lineups
89
min
Event
Player
Team
9'
9' Yellow Card | N. Larcamon
Cruz Azul
12'
12' Yellow Card
Cruz Azul
12'
12' Yellow Card | D. Bouanga
D. Bouanga
Los Angeles FC
13'
13' Yellow Card | C. Rotondi
C. Rotondi
Cruz Azul
13'
13' Yellow Card | C. Rodríguez
C. Rodríguez
Cruz Azul
18'
18' Penalty | G. Fernández
G. Fernández
Cruz Azul
20'
20' Yellow Card | R. Porteous
R. Porteous
Los Angeles FC
41'
41' Yellow Card | E. Segura
E. Segura
Los Angeles FC
Metric
Cruz Azul
Los Angeles FC
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
2.46
0.78
final
Zablokirovannye udary
11
2
final
Shots off target
11
3
final
Shots on target
10
1
final
Udary vsego
32
6
final
Fouls soversheno
18
13
final
Red cards
1
0
final
Zheltye kartochki
5
3
final
Cruz Azul
#1 H. Lloris, #4 E. Segura, #5 R. Porteous, #7 Son Heung-Min, #8 M. Delgado, #11 T. Tillman, #14 Sergi Palencia, #30 D. Martínez, #66 M. Choinière, #91 N. Tafari, #99 D. Bouanga
Los Angeles FC
#3 O. Campos, #4 Willer Ditta, #6 G‰. Lira, #8 A. Palavecino, #10 A. MontaG±o, #16 J. MGЎrquez, #21 G. FernGЎndez, #23 K. Mier, #29 C. Rotondi, #33 G. Piovi, #1 H. Lloris
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
A. GudiG±o
Los Angeles FC
Seyvy
0
A. MontaG±o
Los Angeles FC
Dribling popytki
4
A. MontaG±o
Los Angeles FC
Dribling uspeshno
1
A. MontaG±o
Los Angeles FC
Edinoborstva vyigrano
8
A. MontaG±o
Los Angeles FC
Fouls soversheno
2
A. MontaG±o
Los Angeles FC
Seyvy
0
A. MontaG±o
Los Angeles FC
Klyuchevye pasy
15
A. MontaG±o
Los Angeles FC
Reyting (staryy)
6.5
A. MontaG±o
Los Angeles FC
Shots on target
3
A. MontaG±o
Los Angeles FC
Bloki
1
Market and Glicko
Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Cruz Azul
56.2%
52.3%
market and model agree
Draw
23.3%
22.1%
draw risk
Los Angeles FC
20.5%
25.6%
xG
-
1.94 : 1.30
Total 2.5
Over 56.6%
-
Under 43.4%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.05
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
52.3% / 22.1% / 25.6%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,800 / 1,810
Cruz Azul / Los Angeles FC
RD
175 / 183
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value:
no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
4.82
market consensus · no value · model 25.6%
X
4.53
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.55
market consensus · no value · model 52.3%
Double chance
X2
2.38
market consensus · weak value +13.5% · model 47.7%
12
1.17
market consensus · no value · model 77.9%
1X
1.15
market consensus · no value · model 74.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5
2.35
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.94
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
4.04
market consensus · line only
2 +1
8.47
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.54
market consensus · no value · model 56.6%
Under 2.5
2.40
market consensus · no value · model 43.4%
Both teams to score
No
2.16
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.63
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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