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CONCACAF Champions League World

16.04.2026 01:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction

16.04.2026 01:00 UTC

Finished

CONCACAF Champions League

Los Angeles Galaxy - Toluca

World Football

Stadium Digniti Khels Sports Park

Los Angeles Galaxy

0 : 3

Finished

Toluca

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Los Angeles Galaxy - Toluca April 16, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Toluca.

Line favourite market consensus: Toluca. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.66 / X 3.58 / 2 2.40
1X2 market: Los Angeles Galaxy 35.0% / X 26.1% / Toluca 38.9%
Glicko: Los Angeles Galaxy - / X 100.0% / Toluca -
Total 2.5: over probability 49.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.2%

1 35.1%

X 26.1%

2 38.9%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.9%

Over 2.5 58.8%

Under 2.5 41.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X

Agreement 6/7

Confidence 58.1%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 16.04.2026 01:00 UTC

Stadium Digniti Khels Sports Park (Karson)

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Match center

Los Angeles Galaxy - Toluca

Los Angeles Galaxy: Win 2.80 Los Angeles Galaxy: Draw 3.60 Toluca Win: 2.35 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.60 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.30 Individualnyy total golov Los Angeles Galaxy bolshe 1.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Los Angeles Galaxy menshe 1.5: 1.62 …

Form 5/3 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:3

Events 15

Statistics 22

Lineups 46

min Event Player Team

10' 10' Normal Goal | J. Gallardo J. Gallardo Toluca

46' 46' Substitution 1 | C. Garcés | assist/sub out: E. Wynder C. Garcés Los Angeles Galaxy

54' 54' Yellow Card | D. Barbosa D. Barbosa Toluca

58' 58' Normal Goal | Paulinho Paulinho Toluca

64' 64' Normal Goal Toluca

64' 64' Substitution 1 | Helinho | assist/sub out: P. Pérez Helinho Toluca

68' 68' Substitution 2 | E. Cerrillo | assist/sub out: L. Sanabria E. Cerrillo Los Angeles Galaxy

68' 68' Substitution 3 | João Klauss | assist/sub out: R. Ramos João Klauss Los Angeles Galaxy

Metric Los Angeles Galaxy Toluca SStats

Zablokirovannye udary 3 2 final

Shots off target 3 5 final

Shots on target 4 5 final

Udary vsego 10 12 final

Fouls soversheno 7 11 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 1 final

Offsides 2 5 final

Ball possession, % 57 43 final

Los Angeles Galaxy #3 J. Aude, #6 E. Cerrillo, #12 J. Marcinkowski, #18 M. Reus, #99 João Klauss, #15 J. Haak, #25 C. Garcés, #27 E. Thommy, #4 M. Yoshida, #11 Gabriel Pec, #2 M. Yamane

Toluca #10 J. Angulo, #20 J. Gallardo, #22 L. García, #26 Paulinho, #5 F. Romero, #25 E. López, #4 B. Méndez, #8 N. Castro, #2 D. Barbosa, #11 Helinho, #19 S. Simón

Player Team Metric SStats

A. BriseG±o Toluca Seyvy 0

A. BriseG±o Toluca football.player.minutes_played 6

A. BriseG±o Toluca Klyuchevye pasy 2

A. BriseG±o Toluca Otbory vsego 1

A. Vega Toluca Seyvy 0

B. Méndez Toluca Dribling popytki 4

B. Méndez Toluca Edinoborstva vsego 3

B. Méndez Toluca Edinoborstva vyigrano 6

B. Méndez Toluca Seyvy 0

B. Méndez Toluca football.player.minutes_played 82

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Los Angeles Galaxy 34.1% -

Draw 26.3% 100.0% draw risk

Toluca 39.7% - market favourite

Total 2.5 Over 49.6% - Under 50.4%

Model check - - Difference 0.74

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.74

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

Rating 1,588 / 1,662 Los Angeles Galaxy / Toluca

RD 178 / 205 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.41 market consensus · line only

X 3.58 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.66 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.43 market consensus · line only

12 1.26 market consensus · line only

1X 1.54 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.46 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.19 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.34 market consensus · line only

2 +1 3.52 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.59 market consensus · no value · model 49.6%

Under 2.5 2.27 market consensus · value +14.4% · model 50.4%

Both teams to score

No 2.45 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.49 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	2.60 38.5%
X	3.60 27.8%
	2.55 39.2%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
	2.74 36.5%	2.62 38.2%	2.60 38.5%	2.62 38.2%	2.70 37.0%	2.63 38.0%
X	3.75 26.7%	3.56 28.1%	3.60 27.8%	3.70 27.0%	3.50 28.6%	3.60 27.8%
	2.28 43.9%	2.44 41.0%	2.55 39.2%	2.52 39.7%	2.25 44.4%	2.45 40.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet	William Hill
no	2.40 41.7%	2.47 40.5%	2.50 40.0%	2.45 40.8%	2.38 42.0%	2.45 40.8%	2.43 41.2%	2.50 40.0%	2.45 40.8%
yes	1.53 65.4%	1.48 67.6%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.47 68.0%	1.48 67.6%	1.46 68.5%	1.50 66.7%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
draw_away	1.44 69.4%	1.45 69.0%	1.40 71.4%	1.52 65.8%	1.40 71.4%	1.44 69.4%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.27 78.7%	1.28 78.1%	1.27 78.7%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.60 62.5%	1.52 65.8%	1.57 63.7%	1.55 64.5%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%

Match center

Los Angeles Galaxy

Founded 1995

Toluca

Founded 1917

Match center

Los Angeles Galaxy

L W W D D

09.04 03:00 UTC CONCACAF Champions League

Los Angeles Galaxy 2:4 Toluka

19.03 23:00 UTC CONCACAF Champions League

Los Angeles Galaxy 3:0 Mount Pleasant Academy

12.03 01:30 UTC CONCACAF Champions League

Los Angeles Galaxy 3:0 Mount Pleasant Academy

26.02 04:30 UTC CONCACAF Champions League

Los Angeles Galaxy 0:0 Sporting San Miguelito

20.02 01:00 UTC CONCACAF Champions League

Los Angeles Galaxy 1:1 Sporting San Miguelito

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

1.8 Scored

1.0 Conceded

8 Points

Toluca

W W L

09.04 03:00 UTC CONCACAF Champions League

Toluca 4:2 Los Angeles Galaxy

19.03 03:00 UTC CONCACAF Champions League

Toluca 4:0 San-Diego

12.03 03:30 UTC CONCACAF Champions League

Toluca 2:3 San-Diego

2 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

3.3 Scored

1.7 Conceded

6 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyLos Angeles Galaxy - Toluca

Los Angeles Galaxy

1 matches total

Toluca

Los Angeles Galaxy: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Toluca: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Toluka 2:4 (09.04 03:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 6 goals (2:4, 09.04 03:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 4

4 Goals conceded 2

Match history

09.04 03:00 UTC CONCACAF Champions League

Los Angeles Galaxy

2:4

Toluka

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.