Match center
Start
07.05.2026 01:30 UTC
Sign in to unlock the full prediction
Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
07.05.2026 01:30 UTC
Finished
CONCACAF Champions League
Toluca - Los Angeles FC
4
:
0
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Toluca - Los Angeles FC May 7, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Toluca.
Line favourite market consensus: Toluca. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.51 / X 4.43 / 2 5.27
- 1X2 market: Toluca 61.4% / X 20.9% / Los Angeles FC 17.7%
- Glicko: Toluca - / X 100.0% / Los Angeles FC -
- Total 2.5: over probability 18.1%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 7.8%
1
61.4%
X
20.9%
2
17.6%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 7.6%
Over 2.5
60.8%
Under 2.5
39.2%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
4/5
Confidence
65.5%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
0:0
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
Buy the full AI analysis
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Match center
Toluca - Los Angeles FC
Toluca: Win 1.42 Toluca: Draw 4.30 Los Angeles FC Win: 7.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.60 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.30 Individualnyy total golov Toluca bolshe 2.5: 2.40 Individualnyy total golov Toluca menshe 2.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total golov Los Angeles F…
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
4:0
Events
16
Statistics
22
Lineups
44
min
Event
Player
Team
38'
38' Yellow Card
Los Angeles FC
46'
46' Substitution 1 | J. Shaffelburg | assist/sub out: R. Hollingshead
J. Shaffelburg
Los Angeles FC
49'
49' Penalty | Helinho
Helinho
Toluca
58'
58' Normal Goal
Toluca
59'
59' Substitution 2 | M. Choinière | assist/sub out: S. Eustáquio
M. Choinière
Los Angeles FC
59'
59' Yellow Card | N. Castro
N. Castro
Toluca
59'
59' Substitution 3 | T. Tillman | assist/sub out: D. Martínez
T. Tillman
Los Angeles FC
74'
74' Substitution 1 | M. Isaís | assist/sub out: D. Barbosa
M. Isaís
Toluca
Metric
Toluca
Los Angeles FC
SStats
Zablokirovannye udary
3
1
final
Shots off target
13
4
final
Shots on target
15
1
final
Udary vsego
31
5
final
Fouls soversheno
9
7
final
Red cards
0
1
final
Zheltye kartochki
1
1
final
Offsides
0
1
final
Toluca
#8 N. Castro, #14 M. Ruiz, #17 M. Isaís, #22 L. García, #26 Paulinho, #5 F. Romero, #10 J. Angulo, #25 E. López, #4 B. Méndez, #11 Helinho, #19 S. Simón
Los Angeles FC
#1 H. Lloris, #7 Son Heung-Min, #11 T. Tillman, #18 J. Shaffelburg, #33 A. Long, #8 M. Delgado, #91 N. Tafari, #99 D. Bouanga, #5 R. Porteous, #66 M. Choinière, #14 Sergi Palencia
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
A. Long
Los Angeles FC
football.player.minutes_played
77
A. Smolyakov
Los Angeles FC
football.player.minutes_played
18
D. Bouanga
Los Angeles FC
football.player.minutes_played
94
D. Martínez
Los Angeles FC
football.player.minutes_played
35
H. Lloris
Los Angeles FC
football.player.minutes_played
94
J. Ebobisse
Los Angeles FC
football.player.minutes_played
17
J. Shaffelburg
Los Angeles FC
football.player.minutes_played
45
M. Choinière
Los Angeles FC
football.player.minutes_played
59
M. Delgado
Los Angeles FC
football.player.minutes_played
94
N. Tafari
Los Angeles FC
football.player.minutes_played
94
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Toluca
65.8%
-
market favourite
Draw
21.4%
100.0%
draw risk
Los Angeles FC
12.7%
-
Total 2.5
Over 18.1%
-
Under 81.9%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.79
Favourite-trap risk
Thin market consensus
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.79
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
Rating
1,711 / 1,835
Toluca / Los Angeles FC
RD
167 / 155
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
5.19
market consensus · line only
X
6.70
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.12
Fonbet · line only
Double chance
X2
2.43
market consensus · line only
12
1.18
market consensus · line only
1X
1.14
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
2.54
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.97
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
6.40
market consensus · line only
2 +1
9.30
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.53
market consensus · no value · model 18.1%
Under 2.5
2.37
market consensus · weak value +94.1% · model 81.9%
Both teams to score
No
2.13
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.65
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.54 64.9% | 1.51 66.2% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.55 64.5% | 1.47 68.0% | |
| X | 4.50 22.2% | 4.65 21.5% | 4.33 23.1% | 4.33 23.1% | 4.85 20.6% | 4.40 22.7% |
| 5.00 20.0% | 5.26 19.0% | 4.80 20.8% | 5.75 17.4% | 5.70 17.5% | 5.00 20.0% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.20 45.5% | 2.09 47.9% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.06 48.5% | 2.02 49.5% |
| yes | 1.62 61.7% | 1.66 60.2% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.66 60.2% | 1.68 59.5% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 2.38 42.0% | 2.47 40.5% | 2.40 41.7% | 2.50 40.0% | 2.55 39.2% | 2.40 41.7% |
| home_away | 1.14 87.7% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.19 84.0% | 1.17 85.5% |
| home_draw | 1.17 85.5% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.10 90.9% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.03 97.1% | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 1.25 | — | 1.05 95.2% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.17 85.5% | 1.11 90.1% |
| Over 1.75 | — | 1.14 87.7% |
| Over 2.0 | — | 1.18 84.8% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.53 65.4% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 2.38 42.0% | — |
| Over 4.5 | 4.20 23.8% | — |
| Over 5.5 | 8.00 12.5% | — |
| Under 0.5 | 11.00 9.1% | — |
| Under 1.5 | 5.00 20.0% | — |
| Under 2.5 | 2.45 40.8% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.57 63.7% | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.22 82.0% | — |
| Under 5.5 | 1.07 93.5% | — |
Match center
Toluca
Founded
1917
Los Angeles FC
Founded
2014
Match center
Toluca
L
W
W
W
L
Toluca
1:2
Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC
Toluca
3:0
Los Angeles Galaxy
Los Angeles Galaxy
Toluca
4:2
Los Angeles Galaxy
Los Angeles Galaxy
Toluca
4:0
San-Diego
San-Diego
Toluca
2:3
San-Diego
San-Diego
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
2.8
Scored
1.4
Conceded
9
Points
Los Angeles FC
W
D
W
W
D
Los Angeles FC
2:1
Toluka
Toluka
Los Angeles FC
1:1
Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul
Los Angeles FC
3:0
Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul
Los Angeles FC
2:1
LD Alajuelense
Los Angeles FC
1:1
LD Alajuelense
3
Wins
2
Draws
0
Losses
1.8
Scored
0.8
Conceded
11
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyToluca - Los Angeles FC
Toluca
1
matches total
Toluca: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Los Angeles FC: 1 (100%)
Biggest win
Los Angeles FC 1:2 (30.04 02:30 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
3 goals (1:2, 30.04 02:30 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Toluka
1:2
Los Angeles FC
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
Unlock the full match prediction
The Toluca - Los Angeles FC breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form