Match center
Start
09.04.2026 03:00 UTC
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09.04.2026 03:00 UTC
Finished
CONCACAF Champions League
Toluca - Los Angeles Galaxy
4
:
2
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Toluca - Los Angeles Galaxy April 9, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Toluca.
Line favourite market consensus: Toluca. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.22 / X 6.31 / 2 11.33
- 1X2 market: Toluca 76.5% / X 15.0% / Los Angeles Galaxy 8.5%
- Glicko: Toluca - / X 100.0% / Los Angeles Galaxy -
- Total 2.5: over probability 53.6%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.6%
1
76.9%
X
14.9%
2
8.3%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.9%
Over 2.5
63.0%
Under 2.5
37.0%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
3/4
Confidence
66.8%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:2
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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Match center
Toluca - Los Angeles Galaxy
Toluca: Win 1.25 Toluca: Draw 7.00 Los Angeles Galaxy Win: 10.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.10 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Toluca bolshe 2.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov Toluca menshe 2.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov Los Ange…
Form
2/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
4:2
Events
18
Statistics
24
Lineups
88
min
Event
Player
Team
12'
12' Normal Goal
Toluca
36'
36' Yellow Card | E. Cerrillo
E. Cerrillo
Los Angeles Galaxy
43'
43' Normal Goal | Paulinho
Paulinho
Toluca
45+1'
45+1' Substitution 1 | F. Pereira | assist/sub out: A. BriseG±o
F. Pereira
Toluca
59'
59' Substitution 1 | E. Wynder | assist/sub out: M. Reus
E. Wynder
Los Angeles Galaxy
59'
59' Substitution 2 | Harbor Miller | assist/sub out: J. Haak
Harbor Miller
Los Angeles Galaxy
66'
66' Normal Goal | Gabriel Pec
Gabriel Pec
Los Angeles Galaxy
70'
70' Substitution 2 | Helinho | assist/sub out: E. López
Helinho
Toluca
Metric
Toluca
Los Angeles Galaxy
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
2.25
1.58
final
Zablokirovannye udary
5
2
final
Shots off target
6
2
final
Shots on target
6
3
final
Udary vsego
17
7
final
Fouls soversheno
12
10
final
Zheltye kartochki
1
1
final
Offsides
2
1
final
Toluca
#2 M. Yamane, #4 M. Yoshida, #6 E. Cerrillo, #11 Gabriel Pec, #12 J. Marcinkowski, #22 E. Wynder, #25 C. Garcés, #26 Harbor Miller, #27 E. Thommy, #99 João Klauss, #5 F. Romero
Los Angeles Galaxy
#4 B. Méndez, #5 F. Romero, #6 F. Pereira, #8 N. Castro, #9 A. Vega, #10 J. Angulo, #11 Helinho, #19 S. Simón, #20 J. Gallardo, #22 L. García, #6 E. Cerrillo
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
A. Vega
Toluca
football.player.minutes_played
84
B. Méndez
Toluca
football.player.minutes_played
93
B. Scott
Toluca
Seyvy
0
C. Garcés
Toluca
Dribling popytki
1
C. Garcés
Toluca
Edinoborstva vsego
4
C. Garcés
Toluca
Edinoborstva vyigrano
3
C. Garcés
Toluca
Seyvy
0
C. Garcés
Toluca
Klyuchevye pasy
31
C. Garcés
Toluca
Reyting (staryy)
6
C. Garcés
Toluca
Bloki
1
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Toluca
76.0%
-
market favourite
Draw
15.3%
100.0%
draw risk
Los Angeles Galaxy
8.7%
-
Total 2.5
Over 53.6%
-
Under 46.4%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.85
Favourite-trap risk
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.85
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
X
6.36
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.22
market consensus · line only
2
8.45
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
3.93
market consensus · line only
12
1.10
market consensus · line only
1X
1.04
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
3.32
market consensus · line only
2 -1
2.98
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
7.50
market consensus · line only
1 -0.5
1.33
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.50
market consensus · no value · model 53.6%
Under 2.5
2.55
market consensus · weak value +18.4% · model 46.4%
Both teams to score
No
1.81
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.90
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 1.22 82.0% | |
| X | 7.00 14.3% |
| 11.00 9.1% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.30 76.9% | 1.31 76.3% | 1.19 84.0% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.23 81.3% | 1.15 87.0% | |
| X | 5.00 20.0% | 4.80 20.8% | 6.55 15.3% | 7.00 14.3% | 6.80 14.7% | 6.50 15.4% |
| 10.25 9.8% | 6.80 14.7% | 12.80 7.8% | 11.00 9.1% | 15.50 6.5% | 10.50 9.5% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.80 55.6% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.78 56.2% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.76 56.8% | 1.81 55.3% |
| yes | 1.95 51.3% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.93 51.8% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.93 51.8% | 1.87 53.5% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 3.35 29.9% | 4.45 22.5% | 3.75 26.7% | 4.50 22.2% | 4.33 23.1% | 3.50 28.6% |
| home_away | 1.15 87.0% | 1.09 91.7% | 1.11 90.1% | 1.12 89.3% | 1.08 92.6% | 1.10 90.9% |
| home_draw | 1.05 95.2% | 1.00 100.0% | 1.06 94.3% | 1.05 95.2% | 1.03 97.1% | 1.04 96.2% |
Match center
Toluca
Founded
1917
Los Angeles Galaxy
Founded
1995
Match center
Toluca
W
L
Toluca
4:0
San-Diego
San-Diego
Toluca
2:3
San-Diego
San-Diego
1
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
3.0
Scored
1.5
Conceded
3
Points
Los Angeles Galaxy
W
W
D
D
L
Los Angeles Galaxy
3:0
Mount Pleasant Academy
Mount Pleasant Academy
Los Angeles Galaxy
3:0
Mount Pleasant Academy
Mount Pleasant Academy
Los Angeles Galaxy
0:0
Sporting San Miguelito
Los Angeles Galaxy
1:1
Sporting San Miguelito
Los Angeles Galaxy
2:3
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
2
Wins
2
Draws
1
Losses
1.8
Scored
0.8
Conceded
8
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyToluca - Los Angeles Galaxy
Toluca
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
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