Match center
Start
06.05.2026 00:00 UTC
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06.05.2026 00:00 UTC
Group D. 4 round
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Barcelona SC - Boca Juniors
1
:
0
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Barcelona SC - Boca Juniors May 6, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Boca Juniors.
Line favourite market consensus: Boca Juniors. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.54 / X 3.19 / 2 1.88
- 1X2 market: Barcelona SC 20.7% / X 29.4% / Boca Juniors 49.9%
- Glicko: Barcelona SC - / X 100.0% / Boca Juniors -
- Total 2.5: over probability 57.7%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.6%
1
20.7%
X
29.4%
2
49.9%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 6.4%
Over 2.5
37.8%
Under 2.5
62.3%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
Glavnyy konsensus AI: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
4/6
Confidence
71.6%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
1:2
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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Match center
Barcelona SC - Boca Juniors
Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Barcelona - Boka Khuniors, 6 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Cup Libertadores 2026, Group D. 4 round. Barcelona - Boka Khuniors, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
yes
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:0
Events
21
Statistics
24
Lineups
46
min
Event
Player
Team
10'
10' Yellow Card | Tomás Aranda
T. Aranda
Boca Juniors
24'
24' Substitution 1 | Leandro Brey | assist/sub out: Javier García
L. Brey
Boca Juniors
33'
33' Red Card | Santiago Ascacíbar
S. Ascacíbar
Boca Juniors
33'
33' Yellow Card | Miguel Merentiel
M. Merentiel
Boca Juniors
38'
38' Yellow Card | B. Castillo
B. Castillo
Barcelona SC
45+1'
45+1' Yellow Card | D. Benedetto
D. Benedetto
Barcelona SC
45+6'
45+6' Red Card | M. Celiz
M. Céliz
Barcelona SC
46'
46' Substitution 1 | D. Benedetto | assist/sub out: J. Intriago
D. Benedetto
Barcelona SC
Metric
Barcelona SC
Boca Juniors
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
1.5
1.25
final
Zablokirovannye udary
2
5
final
Shots off target
4
1
final
Shots on target
5
4
final
Udary vsego
11
10
final
Fouls soversheno
15
11
final
Red cards
1
1
final
Zheltye kartochki
5
4
final
Barcelona SC
#1 J. Contreras, #4 G. Vallecilla, #9 D. Benedetto, #28 J. QuiG±Gіnez, #51 Jefferson Wila, #8 M. CG©liz, #14 A. Rangel, #32 Matias Lugo, #26 B. Castillo, #33 J. BGЎez, #18 B. CarabalG
Boca Juniors
#3 L. Blanco, #12 L. Brey, #16 M. Merentiel, #36 T. Aranda, #9 M. Giménez, #18 M. Delgado, #32 A. Costa, #2 L. Di Lollo, #5 L. Paredes, #23 M. Weigandt, #25 S. Ascacíbar
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
A. Costa
Boca Juniors
football.player.assists
0
A. Costa
Boca Juniors
football.player.minutes_played
90
Á. Romero
Boca Juniors
football.player.assists
0
Á. Romero
Boca Juniors
football.player.minutes_played
1
A. Velasco
Boca Juniors
football.player.assists
0
A. Velasco
Boca Juniors
football.player.minutes_played
29
E. Zeballos
Boca Juniors
football.player.assists
0
E. Zeballos
Boca Juniors
football.player.minutes_played
30
J. García
Boca Juniors
football.player.assists
0
J. García
Boca Juniors
football.player.minutes_played
66
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Barcelona SC
22.8%
-
Draw
31.0%
100.0%
draw risk
Boca Juniors
46.3%
-
market favourite
Total 2.5
Over 57.7%
-
Under 42.3%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.69
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.69
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
Rating
1,483 / 1,645
Barcelona SC / Boca Juniors
RD
147 / 216
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.34
market consensus · line only
X
4.00
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.28
Fonbet · line only
Double chance
X2
1.18
market consensus · line only
12
1.32
market consensus · line only
1X
1.90
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.28
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.10
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
1.84
market consensus · line only
2 +1
2.70
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.49
market consensus · value +43.6% · model 57.7%
Under 2.5
1.51
market consensus · no value · model 42.3%
Both teams to score
No
1.61
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.18
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 2.80 35.7% | |
| X | 3.20 31.3% |
| 2.48 40.3% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.10 24.4% | 4.74 21.1% | 4.40 22.7% | 4.75 21.1% | 4.80 20.8% | 4.75 21.1% | |
| X | 3.30 30.3% | 3.27 30.6% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.25 30.8% | 3.35 29.9% | 3.10 32.3% |
| 1.92 52.1% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.83 54.6% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.57 63.7% | 1.61 62.1% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.59 62.9% | 1.67 59.9% |
| yes | 2.25 44.4% | 2.18 45.9% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.18 45.9% | 2.05 48.8% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.20 83.3% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.17 85.5% |
| home_away | 1.28 78.1% | 1.35 74.1% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.32 75.8% | 1.30 76.9% |
| home_draw | 1.85 54.1% | 1.92 52.1% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.98 50.5% | 2.00 50.0% |
Match center
Barcelona SC
Founded
1925
Boca Juniors
Founded
1905
Match center
Barcelona SC
L
L
L
W
D
Barcelona SC
1:2
U. Catolica
U. Catolica
Barcelona SC
0:3
Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
Barcelona SC
0:1
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
1:0
Botafogo
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
1:1
Botafogo
Botafogo
1
Wins
1
Draws
3
Losses
0.6
Scored
1.4
Conceded
4
Points
Boca Juniors
L
W
W
W
L
Boca Juniors
0:1
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
3:0
Barcelona SC
Barcelona SC
Boca Juniors
2:1
U. Catolica
U. Catolica
Boca Juniors
2:1
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
Boca Juniors
0:1
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
1.4
Scored
0.8
Conceded
9
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyBarcelona SC - Boca Juniors
Barcelona SC
1
matches total
Barcelona SC: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Boca Juniors: 1 (100%)
Biggest win
Boca Juniors 0:3 (15.04 00:00 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
3 goals (0:3, 15.04 00:00 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Barcelona SC
0:3
Boca Juniors
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1
Barcelona SC
Team 2
Boca Juniors
Barcelona SC
Team comparison
Boca Juniors
7
Games
3
2
Wins
2
1
Draws
0
4
Losses
1
4
Scored
5
8
Conceded
2
7
Points
6
0
Attacks
0
0
Dangerous attacks
0
0
Big chances
0
0
Shots on goal
0
2.67
Shots on target
4.33
Barcelona Boka Khuniors 7 Games 3 2 Wins 2 1 Draws 0 4 Losses 1 4 Scored 5 8 Conceded 2 7 Points 6 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 2.67 Udary v stvor 4.33 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 3.33 Uglovye 2.67 1.67 Offsaydy 1.67 8.67 Foly 11 53.67 % vladeniya myachom 49 0.86 Warnings 2.33 0 Sendoffs 0.33 Goly Hector Villalba Jhonny Quinonez 1:0 73' Nakazaniya Tomas Aranda 10' Migel Merentel 33' Santyago Askasibar 33' Byron Castillo 38' Dario Benedetto 45+1' Milton Aaron Celiz 45+6' Bryan Carabali 52' Matias Lugo 68' Alex Rangel 81' Ayrton Kosta 90' Alan Velasko 90+5'
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