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Start
08.04.2026 00:00 UTC
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08.04.2026 00:00 UTC
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Barcelona SC - Cruzeiro
0
:
1
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Barcelona SC - Cruzeiro April 8, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Cruzeiro.
Line favourite market consensus: Cruzeiro. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.13 / X 3.03 / 2 2.39
- 1X2 market: Barcelona SC 30.0% / X 30.9% / Cruzeiro 39.1%
- Glicko: Barcelona SC - / X 100.0% / Cruzeiro -
- Total 2.5: over probability 45.5%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.8%
1
29.9%
X
30.9%
2
39.2%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.9%
Over 2.5
39.8%
Under 2.5
60.2%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
4/4
Confidence
62.8%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
1:1
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
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Match center
Barcelona SC - Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC: Win 3.40 Barcelona SC: Draw 3.00 Cruzeiro Win: 2.35 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.50 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total golov Barcelona SC bolshe 0.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total golov Barcelona SC menshe 0.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total g…
Form
5/0
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
0:1
Events
1
Statistics
24
Lineups
40
min
Event
Player
Team
53'
53' Normal Goal | Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
Metric
Barcelona SC
Cruzeiro
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
0.52
2.13
final
Zablokirovannye udary
10
0
final
Shots off target
6
2
final
Shots on target
2
3
final
Udary vsego
18
5
final
Fouls soversheno
16
12
final
Zheltye kartochki
1
2
final
Offsides
4
2
final
Barcelona SC
#6 Kaiki, #11 Gerson, #15 Fabrício Bruno, #16 Lucas Silva, #19 Kaio Jorge, #23 Fagner, #31 Matheus Cunha, #34 Jonathan Jesus, #88 Christian, #99 K. Arroyo
Cruzeiro
#1 J. Contreras, #3 L. Sosa, #4 G. Vallecilla, #8 M. CG©liz, #9 D. Benedetto, #14 A. Rangel, #18 B. CarabalG, #28 J. QuiG±Gіnez, #32 Matias Lugo, #33 J. BGЎez
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
Willian Vargas
Seyvy
0
Christian
Barcelona SC
football.player.assists
0
Christian
Barcelona SC
Dribling popytki
9
Christian
Barcelona SC
Dribling uspeshno
4
Christian
Barcelona SC
Edinoborstva vyigrano
15
Christian
Barcelona SC
Fouls soversheno
2
Christian
Barcelona SC
Fouls na igroke
3
Christian
Barcelona SC
Seyvy
0
Christian
Barcelona SC
football.player.minutes_played
90
Christian
Barcelona SC
Klyuchevye pasy
19
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Barcelona SC
31.7%
-
Draw
32.2%
100.0%
draw risk
Cruzeiro
36.1%
-
market favourite
Total 2.5
Over 45.5%
-
Under 54.5%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.68
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.68
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.39
market consensus · line only
X
3.03
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
3.14
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.33
market consensus · line only
12
1.34
market consensus · line only
1X
1.55
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.36
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.09
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
2.34
market consensus · line only
2 +1
4.00
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.37
market consensus · weak value +7.9% · model 45.5%
Under 2.5
1.57
market consensus · no value · model 54.5%
Both teams to score
No
1.72
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.01
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 3.30 30.3% | |
| X | 3.10 32.3% |
| 2.38 42.0% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.20 31.3% | 2.81 35.6% | 3.19 31.4% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.35 29.9% | 3.25 30.8% | |
| X | 3.15 31.8% | 3.05 32.8% | 3.13 32.0% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.10 32.3% | 2.90 34.5% |
| 2.28 43.9% | 2.39 41.8% | 2.44 41.0% | 2.38 42.0% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.30 43.5% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Superbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.73 57.8% | 1.68 59.5% | 1.72 58.1% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.72 58.1% |
| yes | 2.00 50.0% | 2.16 46.3% | 2.01 49.8% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.02 49.5% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.01 49.8% | 2.05 48.8% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.33 75.2% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.33 75.2% |
| home_away | 1.30 76.9% | 1.37 73.0% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.33 75.2% |
| home_draw | 1.60 62.5% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.53 65.4% |
Match center
Barcelona SC
Founded
1925
Cruzeiro
Founded
1921
Match center
Barcelona SC
W
D
W
L
L
Barcelona SC
1:0
Botafogo
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
1:1
Botafogo
Botafogo
Barcelona SC
1:0
Argentinos JRS
Argentinos JRS
Barcelona SC
0:1
Argentinos JRS
Argentinos JRS
Barcelona SC
1:2
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
2
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
0.8
Scored
0.8
Conceded
7
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyBarcelona SC - Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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The Barcelona SC - Cruzeiro breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form