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CONMEBOL Libertadores
CONMEBOL Libertadores World
15.04.2026 00:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
15.04.2026 00:00 UTC
Finished

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Boca Juniors - Barcelona SC

World Football
Stadium Bombonera
Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
3 : 0
Finished
Barcelona SC
Barcelona SC

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Boca Juniors - Barcelona SC April 15, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Boca Juniors.

Line favourite market consensus: Boca Juniors. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.31 / X 4.77 / 2 10.96
  • 1X2 market: Boca Juniors 71.5% / X 19.8% / Barcelona SC 8.8%
  • Glicko: Boca Juniors - / X 100.0% / Barcelona SC -
  • Total 2.5: over probability 64.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.4%
1 71.7%
X 19.7%
2 8.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.8%
Over 2.5 45.7%
Under 2.5 54.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 3/6
Confidence 71.9%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:2

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 15.04.2026 00:00 UTC
Stadium Bombonera (Buenos-Ayres)

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Match center

Boca Juniors - Barcelona SC

Boca Juniors: Win 1.36 Boca Juniors: Draw 5.00 Barcelona SC Win: 8.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.65 Individualnyy total golov Boca Juniors bolshe 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Boca Juniors menshe 1.5: 2.00 Individualnyy tot…

Form 3/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:0
Events 4
Statistics 24
Lineups 45
min Event Player Team
1' 1' Yellow Card | Adam Bareiro Boca Juniors
7' 7' Yellow Card | Jefferson Intriago Y. Engelhardt Barcelona SC
12' 12' Substitution 1 | Agustín Marchesín | assist/sub out: Leandro Brey R. Zieler Boca Juniors
39' 39' Normal Goal | Lautaro Di Lollo | assist/sub out: Lautaro Blanco Boca Juniors
Metric Boca Juniors Barcelona SC SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.21 0.4 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 2 final
Shots off target 5 3 final
Shots on target 11 1 final
Udary vsego 19 6 final
Fouls soversheno 9 14 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 2 final
Offsides 3 1 final
Boca Juniors #1 A. Marchesín, #2 L. Di Lollo, #3 L. Blanco, #5 L. Paredes, #16 M. Merentiel, #18 M. Delgado, #23 M. Weigandt, #25 S. Ascacíbar, #28 A. Bareiro, #32 A. Costa, #36 T. Aranda
Barcelona SC #1 J. Contreras, #3 L. Sosa, #4 G. Vallecilla, #9 D. Benedetto, #14 A. Rangel, #18 B. CarabalG­, #28 J. QuiG±Gіnez, #32 Matias Lugo, #33 J. BGЎez, #35 J. Intriago
Player Team Metric SStats
Willian Vargas Seyvy 0
A. Bareiro Boca Juniors Dribling popytki 9
A. Bareiro Boca Juniors Edinoborstva vyigrano 12
A. Bareiro Boca Juniors Fouls soversheno 2
A. Bareiro Boca Juniors Seyvy 0
A. Bareiro Boca Juniors football.player.minutes_played 86
A. Bareiro Boca Juniors Klyuchevye pasy 23
A. Bareiro Boca Juniors Pasy vsego 1
A. Bareiro Boca Juniors Reyting (staryy) 7.2
A. Bareiro Boca Juniors Shots on target 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Boca Juniors 70.7% - market favourite
Draw 20.8% 100.0% draw risk
Barcelona SC 8.4% -
Total 2.5 Over 64.4% - Under 35.6%
Model check - - Difference 0.79
Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.79

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 8.59 market consensus · line only
X 4.80 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.32 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 3.31 market consensus · line only
12 1.16 market consensus · line only
1X 1.04 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.22 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.54 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 7.00 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.36 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.07 market consensus · value +33.2% · model 64.4%
Under 2.5 1.74 market consensus · no value · model 35.6%
Both teams to score
No 1.43 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.62 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.33 75.2%
X 5.25 19.1%
9.00 11.1%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.29 77.5% 1.39 71.9% 1.32 75.8% 1.33 75.2% 1.34 74.6% 1.29 77.5%
X 4.70 21.3% 4.05 24.7% 5.03 19.9% 5.25 19.1% 4.90 20.4% 4.60 21.7%
12.50 8.0% 7.50 13.3% 11.70 8.6% 9.00 11.1% 13.50 7.4% 11.00 9.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.42 70.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.43 69.9% 1.40 71.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.42 70.4% 1.49 67.1%
yes 2.65 37.7% 2.74 36.5% 2.61 38.3% 2.75 36.4% 2.62 38.2% 2.60 38.5% 2.70 37.0% 2.61 38.3% 2.43 41.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 3.35 29.9% 3.46 28.9% 3.00 33.3% 3.45 29.0% 3.50 28.6% 3.30 30.3%
home_away 1.17 85.5% 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5% 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5% 1.09 91.7%
home_draw 1.04 96.2% 1.02 98.0% 1.08 92.6% 1.06 94.3% 1.05 95.2% 1.06 94.3%
Match center
Boca Juniors
Founded 1905
Barcelona SC
Founded 1925
Match center
Boca Juniors
W W L
08.04 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Boca Juniors 2:1 U. CatolicaU. Catolica
26.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Boca Juniors 2:1 Alianza LimaAlianza Lima
19.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Boca Juniors 0:1 Alianza LimaAlianza Lima
2 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.3 Scored
1.0 Conceded
6 Points
Barcelona SC
L W D W L
08.04 00:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Barcelona SC 0:1 CruzeiroCruzeiro
11.03 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Barcelona SC 1:0 BotafogoBotafogo
04.03 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Barcelona SC 1:1 BotafogoBotafogo
26.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Barcelona SC 1:0 Argentinos JRSArgentinos JRS
19.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Barcelona SC 0:1 Argentinos JRSArgentinos JRS
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
0.6 Scored
0.6 Conceded
7 Points
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.