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Start
15.04.2026 00:00 UTC
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15.04.2026 00:00 UTC
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Bolivar - Deportivo La Guaira
1
:
1
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Bolivar - Deportivo La Guaira April 15, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bolivar.
Line favourite market consensus: Bolivar. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.21 / X 6.20 / 2 12.82
- 1X2 market: Bolivar 77.4% / X 15.2% / Deportivo La Guaira 7.4%
- Glicko: Bolivar - / X 100.0% / Deportivo La Guaira -
- Total 2.5: over probability 62.5%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.6%
1
77.5%
X
15.1%
2
7.3%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 7.5%
Over 2.5
61.6%
Under 2.5
38.4%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
3/6
Confidence
75.7%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:2
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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Match center
Bolivar - Deportivo La Guaira
Bolívar: Win 1.20 Bolívar: Draw 6.50 Deportivo La Guaira Win: 15.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.00 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Bolívar bolshe 2.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Bolívar menshe 2.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Dep…
Form
5/1
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:1
Events
1
Statistics
26
Lineups
37
min
Event
Player
Team
29'
29' Normal Goal | Flabian LondoG±o | assist/sub out: JosG© AlG Meza
Deportivo La Guaira
Metric
Bolivar
Deportivo La Guaira
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
1.97
0.24
final
Zablokirovannye udary
9
0
final
Shots off target
10
2
final
Shots on target
6
2
final
Udary vsego
25
4
final
Fouls soversheno
10
12
final
Red cards
0
1
final
Zheltye kartochki
1
0
final
Bolivar
#3 Diego Osío, #7 J. Meza, #8 J. Perdomo, #12 J. Sanchez, #13 R. Ibarra, #20 J. Gutierrez, #27 J. Correa, #36 F. Londono
Deportivo La Guaira
#1 C. Lampe, #3 X. Arreaga, #5 S. Echeverría, #6 E. Vaca, #9 M. Cauteruccio, #11 B. Oyola, #14 R. Matheus, #23 L. Justiniano, #26 E. Saavedra, #77 D. Romero, #80 C. Melgar
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
Carlos Sejas
Seyvy
0
Jesús Sagredo
Seyvy
0
L. PeG±a
Dribling popytki
3
L. PeG±a
Edinoborstva vsego
2
L. PeG±a
Edinoborstva vyigrano
8
L. PeG±a
Fouls soversheno
2
L. PeG±a
Seyvy
0
L. PeG±a
football.player.minutes_played
97
L. PeG±a
Klyuchevye pasy
14
L. PeG±a
Reyting (staryy)
6.2
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Bolivar
82.1%
-
market favourite
Draw
12.3%
100.0%
draw risk
Deportivo La Guaira
5.6%
-
Total 2.5
Over 62.5%
-
Under 37.5%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.88
Favourite-trap risk
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.88
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
X
6.19
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.21
market consensus · line only
2
9.45
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
4.10
market consensus · line only
12
1.11
market consensus · line only
1X
1.03
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
4.25
market consensus · line only
2 -1
3.29
market consensus · line only
1 -0.5
1.21
market consensus · line only
1 -1
1.28
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.51
market consensus · no value · model 62.5%
Under 2.5
2.42
market consensus · no value · model 37.5%
Both teams to score
No
1.67
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.08
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 1.22 82.0% | |
| X | 6.00 16.7% |
| 13.00 7.7% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.22 82.0% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.23 81.3% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.18 84.8% | |
| X | 5.60 17.9% | 6.50 15.4% | 6.59 15.2% | 6.00 16.7% | 6.40 15.6% | 6.00 16.7% |
| 14.00 7.1% | 11.50 8.7% | 12.80 7.8% | 13.00 7.7% | 15.00 6.7% | 15.00 6.7% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.70 58.8% | 1.69 59.2% | 1.69 59.2% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.66 60.2% |
| yes | 2.05 48.8% | 2.13 47.0% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.07 48.3% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.07 48.3% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 4.00 25.0% | 4.24 23.6% | 3.75 26.7% | 4.30 23.3% | 4.50 22.2% | 4.10 24.4% |
| home_away | 1.11 90.1% | 1.12 89.3% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.12 89.3% | 1.10 90.9% | 1.10 90.9% |
| home_draw | 1.03 97.1% | 1.01 99.0% | 1.05 95.2% | 1.05 95.2% | 1.04 96.2% | 1.01 99.0% |
Match center
Bolivar
Founded
1925
Deportivo La Guaira
Founded
2008
Match center
Bolivar
L
W
L
L
L
Bolivar
0:1
Independ. Rivadavia
Independ. Rivadavia
Bolivar
4:0
Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno
Bolivar
0:2
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
Bolivar
1:2
Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal
Bolivar
2:3
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
1
Wins
0
Draws
4
Losses
1.4
Scored
1.6
Conceded
3
Points
Deportivo La Guaira
D
Deportivo La Guaira
0:0
Fluminense
Fluminense
0
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
0.0
Scored
0.0
Conceded
1
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyBolivar - Deportivo La Guaira
Bolivar
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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The Bolivar - Deportivo La Guaira breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form