CONMEBOL Libertadores
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Bolivar — 46%
Model estimate: win Bolivar 46.4%, draw 24.9%, win Fluminense 28.7%. Model favourite — Bolivar.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bolivar.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model consensus
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Bolivar - Fluminense, 1 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Cup Libertadores 2026, Group C. 3 round. Bolivar - Fluminense, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 1.95 51.3% | |
| X | 3.50 28.6% |
| 3.70 27.0% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.97 50.8% | 1.72 58.1% | 2.00 50.0% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.72 58.1% | 1.70 58.8% | |
| X | 3.65 27.4% | 3.80 26.3% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.80 26.3% | 3.60 27.8% |
| 3.45 29.0% | 5.09 19.7% | 3.30 30.3% | 4.50 22.2% | 4.80 20.8% | 4.75 21.1% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.15 46.5% | 1.78 56.2% | 2.20 45.5% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.82 55.0% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.76 56.8% | 1.91 52.4% |
| yes | 1.62 61.7% | 1.93 51.8% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.93 51.8% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.93 51.8% | 1.78 56.2% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.80 55.6% | 2.15 46.5% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.91 52.4% | 2.12 47.2% | 2.10 47.6% |
| home_away | 1.22 82.0% | 1.27 78.7% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.27 78.7% | 1.25 80.0% |
| home_draw | 1.28 78.1% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.17 85.5% |
Bolivar
Fluminense
Bolivar
Deportivo La Guaira
Independ. Rivadavia
Cerro Porteno
Palmeiras
Sporting Cristal
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
Deportivo La Guaira
Full head-to-head historyBolivar - Fluminense
Bolivar Fluminense 2 Games 2 0 Wins 0 1 Draws 1 Losses 1 Scored 1 2 Conceded 2 1 Points 1 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 7.5 Udary v stvor 8 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 8 Uglovye 4.5 2 Offsaydy 0 8 Foly 9.5 67.5 % vladeniya myachom 67.5 0.5 Warnings 0.5 0.5 Sendoffs 0 Sleduyuschiy match 20.05.2026 Cup Libertadores — 2026 Fluminense –:– Bolivar Group C. 5 round Goly Robson Mateus Khose Sagredo 1:0 6' Robson Mateus Patricio Rodriguez 2:0 61' Nakazaniya Rodrigo Kastilo 21' Fakundo Bernal 29' Fakundo Bernal 48' Jhon Garcia 57' Lionel Khustinyano 74'
The Bolivar - Fluminense breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
