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CONMEBOL Libertadores
CONMEBOL Libertadores World
25.04.2025 00:30 UTC Match prediction
25.04.2025 00:30 UTC
Finished

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Cerro Porteno - Sporting Cristal

World Football
Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno
2 : 2
Finished
Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Cerro Porteno - Sporting Cristal April 25, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Cerro Porteno.

Line favourite Fonbet: Cerro Porteno. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.60 / X 3.85 / 2 5.80
  • 1X2 market: Cerro Porteno 59.1% / X 24.6% / Sporting Cristal 16.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 55.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.7%
1 59.1%
X 24.6%
2 16.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.3%
Over 2.5 44.8%
Under 2.5 55.2%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 25.04.2025 00:30 UTC
Match center

Cerro Porteno - Sporting Cristal

Form 5/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.80 Fonbet · line only
X 3.85 Fonbet · line only
1 1.60 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
X2 2.35 Fonbet · line only
12 1.25 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.14 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.23 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.68 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 4.65 market consensus · line only
2 +1 8.50 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.12 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.72 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.70 Fonbet · line only
Yes 2.15 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.64 61.0%
X 3.87 25.8%
5.75 17.4%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.64 61.0% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.62 61.7%
X 3.75 26.7% 3.90 25.6% 3.60 27.8% 3.80 26.3% 3.75 26.7% 3.60 27.8%
5.40 18.5% 5.92 16.9% 5.00 20.0% 5.75 17.4% 5.50 18.2% 5.50 18.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Betway Bwin Fonbet
no 1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.66 60.2% 1.70 58.8%
yes 2.05 48.8% 2.07 48.3% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.07 48.3% 1.95 51.3% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8% 2.15 46.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betway
draw_away 2.20 45.5% 2.33 42.9% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.29 77.5%
home_draw 1.15 87.0% 1.14 87.7% 1.15 87.0% 1.14 87.7% 1.17 85.5% 1.14 87.7%
Match center
Cerro Porteno
L W W W W
10.04 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Cerro Porteno 0:1 PalmeirasPalmeiras
01.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Cerro Porteno 4:2 BolívarBolívar
12.03 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Cerro Porteno 4:2 FBC MelgarFBC Melgar
05.03 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Cerro Porteno 1:0 FBC MelgarFBC Melgar
27.02 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Cerro Porteno 3:1 Monagas SC
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.4 Scored
1.2 Conceded
12 Points
Sporting Cristal
L L
10.04 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sporting Cristal 0:3 BolívarBolívar
03.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sporting Cristal 2:3 PalmeirasPalmeiras
0 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
3.0 Conceded
0 Points