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CONMEBOL Libertadores World

14.04.2026 22:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction

14.04.2026 22:00 UTC

Finished

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Club Nacional - Deportes Tolima

World Football

Club Nacional

3 : 1

Finished

Deportes Tolima

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Club Nacional - Deportes Tolima April 14, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Club Nacional.

Line favourite market consensus: Club Nacional. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.95 / X 3.20 / 2 4.18
1X2 market: Club Nacional 48.1% / X 29.3% / Deportes Tolima 22.6%
Glicko: Club Nacional - / X 100.0% / Deportes Tolima -
Total 2.5: over probability 53.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.5%

1 48.2%

X 29.4%

2 22.5%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.9%

Over 2.5 39.8%

Under 2.5 60.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X

Agreement 4/7

Confidence 70.0%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 14.04.2026 22:00 UTC

Match center

Club Nacional - Deportes Tolima

Club Nacional: Win 1.91 Club Nacional: Draw 3.30 Deportes Tolima Win: 4.33 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.30 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.60 Individualnyy total golov Club Nacional bolshe 1.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Club Nacional menshe 1.5: 1.62 Individual…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:1

Events 21

Statistics 24

Lineups 38

min Event Player Team

14' 14' Yellow Card | Luis Sandoval Deportes Tolima

37' 37' Yellow Card | Luciano Boggio Club Nacional

41' 41' Yellow Card | Daniel Pedrozo Deportes Tolima

45+3' 45+3' Yellow Card | Adrián Parra Deportes Tolima

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Paolo Calione | assist/sub out: Maximiliano Silvera Club Nacional

48' 48' Normal Goal | Maximiliano Gómez | assist/sub out: Nicolas Lopez M. Terrier Club Nacional

62' 62' Substitution 1 | Daniel Pedrozo | assist/sub out: Juan Torres Deportes Tolima

62' 62' Substitution 2 | Adrián Parra | assist/sub out: Edwar López Deportes Tolima

Metric Club Nacional Deportes Tolima SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.7 0.4 final

Zablokirovannye udary 1 1 final

Shots off target 5 3 final

Shots on target 7 3 final

Udary vsego 13 7 final

Fouls soversheno 11 18 final

Zheltye kartochki 3 5 final

Offsides 0 2 final

Club Nacional #1 Neto Volpi, #2 A. Angulo, #3 J. Angulo, #4 D. Pedrozo, #6 C. Trujillo, #7 J. González, #9 L. Sandoval, #17 C. Arrieta, #24 A. Parra, #80 B. Rovira

Deportes Tolima #1 Luis Mejía, #2 A. Rogel, #4 S. Coates, #6 L. Boggio, #7 N. López, #9 M. Gómez, #14 N. Lodeiro, #15 P. Calione, #23 L. Rodríguez, #30 B. Barcia, #77 N. Rodríguez

Player Team Metric SStats

A. dos Santos Deportes Tolima football.player.assists 1

A. dos Santos Deportes Tolima Dribling popytki 1

A. dos Santos Deportes Tolima Edinoborstva vyigrano 1

A. dos Santos Deportes Tolima Seyvy 0

A. dos Santos Deportes Tolima football.player.minutes_played 10

A. dos Santos Deportes Tolima Tochnost pasov % 1

A. dos Santos Deportes Tolima Klyuchevye pasy 1

A. dos Santos Deportes Tolima Reyting (staryy) 7.2

A. dos Santos Deportes Tolima Bloki 1

A. dos Santos Deportes Tolima Otbory vsego 1

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Club Nacional 50.1% - market favourite

Draw 28.6% 100.0% draw risk

Deportes Tolima 21.3% -

Total 2.5 Over 53.3% - Under 46.7%

Model check - - Difference 0.71

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.71

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

Rating 1,549 / 1,441 Club Nacional / Deportes Tolima

RD 240 / 179 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 4.18 market consensus · line only

X 3.21 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.95 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.82 market consensus · line only

12 1.31 market consensus · line only

1X 1.21 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.85 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.41 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 4.34 market consensus · line only

2 +1 9.30 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.37 market consensus · value +26.4% · model 53.3%

Under 2.5 1.57 market consensus · no value · model 46.7%

Both teams to score

No 1.70 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.04 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.95 51.3%
X	3.25 30.8%
	4.20 23.8%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.90 52.6%	1.86 53.8%	2.00 50.0%	1.95 51.3%	2.02 49.5%	1.90 52.6%
X	3.15 31.8%	3.40 29.4%	3.23 31.0%	3.25 30.8%	3.20 31.3%	3.30 30.3%
	4.40 22.7%	3.75 26.7%	4.32 23.2%	4.20 23.8%	4.60 21.7%	4.10 24.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.70 58.8%	1.80 55.6%	1.68 59.5%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.73 57.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.66 60.2%	1.70 58.8%
yes	2.05 48.8%	1.98 50.5%	2.06 48.5%	2.05 48.8%	2.07 48.3%	2.00 50.0%	2.05 48.8%	2.06 48.5%	2.00 50.0%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
draw_away	1.85 54.1%	1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.83 54.6%	1.75 57.1%
home_away	1.28 78.1%	1.36 73.5%	1.30 76.9%	1.34 74.6%	1.30 76.9%	1.30 76.9%
home_draw	1.20 83.3%	1.23 81.3%	1.22 82.0%	1.23 81.3%	1.22 82.0%	1.22 82.0%

Match center

Club Nacional

Founded 1899

Deportes Tolima

Founded 1954

Match center

Club Nacional

D W L W D

08.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Club Nacional 1:1 Coquimbo Unido

28.05 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Club Nacional 1:0 Atletico Nacional

15.05 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Club Nacional 0:2 Internacional

07.05 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Club Nacional 3:1 Bahia

23.04 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Club Nacional 3:3 Internacional

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

1.6 Scored

1.4 Conceded

8 Points

Deportes Tolima

D W L L W

08.04 02:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Deportes Tolima 0:0 Universitario

12.03 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Deportes Tolima 2:0 O'Higgins

05.03 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Deportes Tolima 0:1 O'Higgins

27.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Deportes Tolima 0:1 Deportivo Tachira FC

20.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Deportes Tolima 1:0 Deportivo Tachira FC

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

0.6 Scored

0.4 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyClub Nacional - Deportes Tolima

Club Nacional

0 matches total

Deportes Tolima

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.