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Start
08.04.2026 22:00 UTC
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08.04.2026 22:00 UTC
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Coquimbo Unido - Club Nacional
1
:
1
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Coquimbo Unido - Club Nacional April 8, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Coquimbo Unido.
Line favourite market consensus: Coquimbo Unido. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.45 / X 2.91 / 2 3.21
- 1X2 market: Coquimbo Unido 38.4% / X 32.3% / Club Nacional 29.3%
- Glicko: Coquimbo Unido - / X 100.0% / Club Nacional -
- Total 2.5: over probability 54.4%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.3%
1
38.4%
X
32.3%
2
29.3%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.9%
Over 2.5
36.6%
Under 2.5
63.4%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
4/4
Confidence
62.5%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
1:1
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
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Match center
Coquimbo Unido - Club Nacional
Coquimbo Unido: Win 2.30 Coquimbo Unido: Draw 2.80 Club Nacional Win: 3.10 Obschiy total golov bolshe 1.5: 1.50 Obschiy total golov menshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Coquimbo Unido bolshe 1.5: 2.75 Individualnyy total golov Coquimbo Unido menshe 1.5: 1.40 Individua…
Form
0/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:1
Events
0
Statistics
24
Lineups
36
Metric
Coquimbo Unido
Club Nacional
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
1.85
0.44
final
Zablokirovannye udary
5
3
final
Shots off target
3
2
final
Shots on target
8
2
final
Udary vsego
16
7
final
Fouls soversheno
13
8
final
Zheltye kartochki
2
2
final
Offsides
6
1
final
Coquimbo Unido
#2 B. Gazzolo, #7 S. Galani, #8 A. Camargo, #9 N. Johansen, #11 A. E. Azocar Machuca, #15 C. Zavala, #16 J. Cornejo, #17 F. Salinas, #30 B. Chandia
Club Nacional
#2 A. Rogel, #4 S. Coates, #6 L. Boggio, #9 M. Gómez, #14 N. Lodeiro, #23 L. Rodríguez, #25 I. Suárez, #30 B. Barcia, #32 T. Viera, #77 N. Rodríguez
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
A. dos Santos
Club Nacional
Seyvy
0
A. Rogel
Club Nacional
football.player.assists
0
A. Rogel
Club Nacional
Dribling popytki
3
A. Rogel
Club Nacional
Edinoborstva vyigrano
4
A. Rogel
Club Nacional
Seyvy
0
A. Rogel
Club Nacional
football.player.minutes_played
90
A. Rogel
Club Nacional
Klyuchevye pasy
11
A. Rogel
Club Nacional
Reyting (staryy)
6.6
A. Rogel
Club Nacional
Shots on target
1
A. Rogel
Club Nacional
Bloki
1
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Coquimbo Unido
39.9%
-
market favourite
Draw
31.5%
100.0%
draw risk
Club Nacional
28.6%
-
Total 2.5
Over 54.4%
-
Under 45.6%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.68
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.68
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.22
market consensus · line only
X
2.91
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.45
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.53
market consensus · line only
12
1.37
market consensus · line only
1X
1.32
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.55
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.20
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
3.36
market consensus · line only
2 +1
6.63
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.58
market consensus · value +40.3% · model 54.4%
Under 2.5
1.49
market consensus · no value · model 45.6%
Both teams to score
No
1.70
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.06
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 2.45 40.8% | |
| X | 2.90 34.5% |
| 3.30 30.3% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.42 41.3% | 2.32 43.1% | 2.50 40.0% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.47 40.5% | 2.40 41.7% | |
| X | 2.94 34.0% | 3.15 31.8% | 2.87 34.8% | 2.90 34.5% | 2.82 35.5% | 3.00 33.3% |
| 3.20 31.3% | 2.87 34.8% | 3.41 29.3% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.45 29.0% | 3.10 32.3% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.77 56.5% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.66 60.2% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.64 61.0% | 1.74 57.5% |
| yes | 1.95 51.3% | 1.98 50.5% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.07 48.3% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.10 47.6% | 1.95 51.3% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.53 65.4% | 1.55 64.5% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.50 66.7% |
| home_away | 1.33 75.2% | 1.43 69.9% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.33 75.2% |
| home_draw | 1.33 75.2% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.34 74.6% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.33 75.2% |
Match center
Coquimbo Unido
Founded
1957
Club Nacional
Founded
1899
Match center
Club Nacional
W
L
W
D
L
Club Nacional
1:0
Atletico Nacional
Club Nacional
0:2
Internacional
Internacional
Club Nacional
3:1
Bahia
Bahia
Club Nacional
3:3
Internacional
Internacional
Club Nacional
0:1
Bahia
Bahia
2
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
1.4
Scored
1.4
Conceded
7
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyCoquimbo Unido - Club Nacional
Coquimbo Unido
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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The Coquimbo Unido - Club Nacional breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form