PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
CONMEBOL Libertadores
CONMEBOL Libertadores World
16.04.2026 00:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction
16.04.2026 00:30 UTC
Finished

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Corinthians - Santa Fe

World Football
Stadium Néo Kímika Aréna
Corinthians
Corinthians
2 : 0
Finished
Santa Fe
Santa Fe

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Corinthians - Santa Fe April 16, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Corinthians.

Line favourite market consensus: Corinthians. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.39 / X 4.27 / 2 9.06
  • 1X2 market: Corinthians 67.5% / X 22.0% / Santa Fe 10.4%
  • Glicko: Corinthians - / X 100.0% / Santa Fe -
  • Total 2.5: over probability 62.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.4%
1 67.6%
X 22.0%
2 10.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.6%
Over 2.5 42.3%
Under 2.5 57.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 5/9
Confidence 68.7%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 16.04.2026 00:30 UTC
Stadium Néo Kímika Aréna (San-Paulu)

? ? ??? ? ??????§? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ? ??? ? ? ??° ? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ?????  ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????±? ? ? ??? ? ??????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ?????¦? ? ??? ? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????· SStats.

Match center

Corinthians - Santa Fe

Corinthians: Win 1.40 Corinthians: Draw 4.33 Santa Fe Win: 9.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.25 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Corinthians bolshe 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Corinthians menshe 1.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov…

Form 5/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:0
Events 12
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
51' 51' Normal Goal | Raniele | assist/sub out: Rodrigo Garro Corinthians
57' 57' Yellow Card | Gabriel Paulista M. Peart-Harris Corinthians
76' 76' Substitution 1 | Raniele | assist/sub out: Allan Corinthians
76' 76' Substitution 2 | Breno Bidon | assist/sub out: Andre Carrillo Corinthians
77' 77' Substitution 1 | Omar Fernández | assist/sub out: Edwin Mosquera Santa Fe
79' 79' Substitution 2 | Jhojan Torres | assist/sub out: Franco Fagúndez Santa Fe
80' 80' Normal Goal | Gustavo Henrique | assist/sub out: Rodrigo Garro G. Cortéz Corinthians
81' 81' Substitution 3 | Kayke Ferrari | assist/sub out: Jesse Lingard Corinthians
Metric Corinthians Santa Fe SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.24 0.3 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 1 final
Shots off target 3 4 final
Shots on target 9 1 final
Udary vsego 14 6 final
Fouls soversheno 5 20 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 0 final
Offsides 1 0 final
Corinthians #1 Hugo Souza, #2 Matheuzinho, #3 Gabriel Paulista, #7 Breno, #8 R. Garro, #9 Yuri Alberto, #13 Gustavo Henrique, #14 Raniele, #21 Matheus Bidu, #49 Andre
Santa Fe #1 A. Mosquera, #3 V. Moreno, #6 K. Toscano, #7 J. Torres, #8 O. Fernández, #11 H. Rodallega, #13 H. Palacios, #14 L. Palacios, #16 D. Torres, #18 E. Olivera, #32 C. Mafla
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Mosquera Santa Fe football.player.assists 0
A. Mosquera Santa Fe Seyvy 2
A. Mosquera Santa Fe football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Mosquera Santa Fe Klyuchevye pasy 16
A. Mosquera Santa Fe Reyting 7
A. Mosquera Santa Fe Reyting (staryy) 7.2
A. Mosquera Santa Fe Otbory vsego 6
A. Zapata Santa Fe football.player.assists 0
A. Zapata Santa Fe Dribling popytki 1
A. Zapata Santa Fe Dribling uspeshno 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Corinthians 68.4% - market favourite
Draw 21.8% 100.0% draw risk
Santa Fe 9.8% -
Total 2.5 Over 62.2% - Under 37.8%
Model check - - Difference 0.78
Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.78

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 8.94 market consensus · line only
X 4.27 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.39 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.90 market consensus · line only
12 1.19 market consensus · line only
1X 1.06 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.88 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.17 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 6.80 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.41 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.24 market consensus · value +39.4% · model 62.2%
Under 2.5 1.64 market consensus · no value · model 37.8%
Both teams to score
No 1.45 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.60 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.40 71.4%
X 4.33 23.1%
9.00 11.1%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.40 71.4% 1.42 70.4% 1.41 70.9% 1.40 71.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.36 73.5%
X 4.10 24.4% 3.90 25.6% 4.49 22.3% 4.33 23.1% 4.35 23.0% 4.20 23.8%
9.00 11.1% 7.20 13.9% 9.25 10.8% 9.00 11.1% 9.50 10.5% 9.00 11.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.45 69.0% 1.43 69.9% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.47 68.0% 1.50 66.7% 1.40 71.4% 1.42 70.4% 1.46 68.5%
yes 2.55 39.2% 2.77 36.1% 2.70 37.0% 2.62 38.2% 2.57 38.9% 2.55 39.2% 2.63 38.0% 2.61 38.3% 2.48 40.3%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 2.85 35.1% 2.97 33.7% 2.75 36.4% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3% 2.88 34.7%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.21 82.6% 1.20 83.3% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.13 88.5%
home_draw 1.05 95.2% 1.04 96.2% 1.07 93.5% 1.09 91.7% 1.06 94.3% 1.07 93.5%
Match center
Corinthians
Founded 1910
Santa Fe
Founded 1941
Match center
Corinthians
W W L W D
10.04 00:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Corinthians 2:0 PlatensePlatense
13.03 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Corinthians 2:0 Barcelona SCBarcelona SC
06.03 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Corinthians 0:3 Barcelona SCBarcelona SC
27.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Corinthians 3:2 UCVUCV
20.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Corinthians 1:1 UCVUCV
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.2 Conceded
10 Points
Santa Fe
D W L
10.04 02:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Santa Fe 1:1 PenarolPenarol
25.02 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Santa Fe 2:1 Deportes Iquique
18.02 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Santa Fe 1:2 Deportes Iquique
1 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.3 Scored
1.3 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyCorinthians - Santa Fe

Corinthians
0 matches total
Santa Fe
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????±? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????»? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????µ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ????? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.