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CONMEBOL Libertadores World

29.04.2026 00:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction

29.04.2026 00:30 UTC

Finished

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Cruzeiro - Boca Juniors

World Football

Stadium Mineyran

Cruzeiro

1 : 0

Finished

Boca Juniors

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Cruzeiro - Boca Juniors April 29, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Cruzeiro.

Line favourite market consensus: Cruzeiro. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.46 / X 2.89 / 2 3.19
1X2 market: Cruzeiro 38.1% / X 32.5% / Boca Juniors 29.5%
Glicko: Cruzeiro - / X 100.0% / Boca Juniors -
Total 2.5: over probability 9.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.6%

1 38.1%

X 32.5%

2 29.4%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.2%

Over 2.5 37.7%

Under 2.5 62.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X

Agreement 3/4

Confidence 71.5%

Total Under 2.5

Score 0:0

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 29.04.2026 00:30 UTC

Stadium Mineyran (Belu-Orizonti)

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Match center

Cruzeiro - Boca Juniors

Cruzeiro: Win 1.90 Cruzeiro: Draw 3.40 Boca Juniors Win: 4.10 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.35 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.57 Individualnyy total golov Cruzeiro bolshe 1.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Cruzeiro menshe 1.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Boca Ju…

Form 2/4 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:0

Events 17

Statistics 26

Lineups 46

min Event Player Team

7' 7' Yellow Card | Leandro Paredes L. Paredes Boca Juniors

25' 25' Yellow Card | Kaio Jorge Kaio Jorge Cruzeiro

29' 29' Yellow Card | Fágner Fagner Cruzeiro

40' 40' Yellow Card | A. Bareiro A. Bareiro Boca Juniors

40' 40' Yellow Card | Gerson Gerson Cruzeiro

45+1' 45+1' Yellow Card | A. Bareiro A. Bareiro Boca Juniors

45+1' 45+1' Red Card | A. Bareiro A. Bareiro Boca Juniors

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Fágner | assist/sub out: Kauã Moraes Fagner Cruzeiro

Metric Cruzeiro Boca Juniors SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.39 0 final

Zablokirovannye udary 4 0 final

Shots off target 5 0 final

Shots on target 2 0 final

Udary vsego 11 0 final

Fouls soversheno 11 0 final

Red cards 0 1 final

Zheltye kartochki 4 5 final

Cruzeiro #6 Kaiki, #11 Gerson, #19 Kaio Jorge, #81 Otávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa, #88 Christian, #10 Matheus Pereira, #29 L. Romero, #34 Jonathan Jesus, #15 Fabrício Bruno, #99 K. Arroyo, #23 Fagner

Boca Juniors #3 L. Blanco, #12 L. Brey, #28 A. Bareiro, #36 T. Aranda, #16 M. Merentiel, #18 M. Delgado, #32 A. Costa, #2 L. Di Lollo, #5 L. Paredes, #23 M. Weigandt, #25 S. Ascacíbar

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Bareiro Boca Juniors football.player.assists 0

A. Bareiro Boca Juniors Dribling popytki 1

A. Bareiro Boca Juniors Dribling uspeshno 1

A. Bareiro Boca Juniors Edinoborstva vyigrano 12

A. Bareiro Boca Juniors Seyvy 0

A. Bareiro Boca Juniors football.player.minutes_played 46

A. Bareiro Boca Juniors Klyuchevye pasy 11

A. Bareiro Boca Juniors Reyting (staryy) 5.2

A. Bareiro Boca Juniors Perekhvaty 1

A. Bareiro Boca Juniors Otbory vsego 8

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Cruzeiro 50.4% - market favourite

Draw 28.1% 100.0% draw risk

Boca Juniors 21.5% -

Total 2.5 Over 9.6% - Under 90.4%

Model check - - Difference 0.72

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.72

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.19 market consensus · line only

X 2.89 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.47 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.52 market consensus · line only

12 1.37 market consensus · line only

1X 1.33 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.55 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.21 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.25 market consensus · line only

2 +1 6.14 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.50 market consensus · no value · model 9.6%

Under 2.5 1.51 market consensus · value +36.5% · model 90.4%

Both teams to score

No 1.72 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.02 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	2.50 40.0%
X	2.90 34.5%
	3.20 31.3%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	2.42 41.3%	2.53 39.5%	2.50 40.0%	2.50 40.0%	2.57 38.9%	2.40 41.7%
X	2.80 35.7%	2.96 33.8%	2.88 34.7%	2.90 34.5%	3.00 33.3%	2.88 34.7%
	3.35 29.9%	3.23 31.0%	2.90 34.5%	3.20 31.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.20 31.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.80 55.6%	1.70 58.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.73 57.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.68 59.5%	1.76 56.8%
yes	2.05 48.8%	2.03 49.3%	1.95 51.3%	2.05 48.8%	2.02 49.5%	2.00 50.0%	2.00 50.0%	2.03 49.3%	1.93 51.8%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.55 64.5%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.55 64.5%	1.53 65.4%
home_away	1.35 74.1%	1.41 70.9%	1.36 73.5%	1.40 71.4%	1.39 71.9%	1.36 73.5%
home_draw	1.30 76.9%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.30 76.9%	1.37 73.0%	1.36 73.5%

Match center

Cruzeiro

Founded 1921

Boca Juniors

Founded 1905

Match center

Cruzeiro

L W

15.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Cruzeiro 1:2 U. Catolica

08.04 00:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Cruzeiro 1:0 Barcelona SC

1 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.0 Conceded

3 Points

Boca Juniors

W W W L

15.04 00:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Boca Juniors 3:0 Barcelona SC

08.04 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Boca Juniors 2:1 U. Catolica

26.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Boca Juniors 2:1 Alianza Lima

19.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Boca Juniors 0:1 Alianza Lima

3 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

1.8 Scored

0.8 Conceded

9 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyCruzeiro - Boca Juniors

Cruzeiro

0 matches total

Boca Juniors

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.