Match center
Start
15.04.2026 22:00 UTC
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15.04.2026 22:00 UTC
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Cruzeiro - U. Catolica
1
:
2
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Cruzeiro - U. Catolica April 15, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Cruzeiro.
Line favourite market consensus: Cruzeiro. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.40 / X 4.43 / 2 7.99
- 1X2 market: Cruzeiro 66.8% / X 21.2% / U. Catolica 11.9%
- Glicko: Cruzeiro - / X 100.0% / U. Catolica -
- Total 2.5: over probability 56.6%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.5%
1
67.1%
X
21.2%
2
11.7%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5
48.8%
Under 2.5
51.2%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
5/9
Confidence
65.4%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
1:1
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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Match center
Cruzeiro - U. Catolica
Cruzeiro: Win 1.44 Cruzeiro: Draw 4.50 U. Catolica Win: 7.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.05 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.75 Individualnyy total golov Cruzeiro bolshe 1.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Cruzeiro menshe 1.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov U. Catol…
Form
1/1
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:2
Events
21
Statistics
24
Lineups
38
min
Event
Player
Team
30'
30' Normal Goal | Justo Giani | assist/sub out: Fernando Zuqui
C. Edudzi
U. Catolica
32'
32' Yellow Card | Justo Giani
C. Edudzi
U. Catolica
46'
46' Substitution 1 | Wanderson | assist/sub out: Keny Arroyo
Mariano Troilo
Cruzeiro
46'
46' Substitution 2 | Kauã Moraes | assist/sub out: William
Cruzeiro
48'
48' Yellow Card | Fernando Zuqui
A. Attard
U. Catolica
49'
49' Yellow Card | Gerson
Cruzeiro
54'
54' Yellow Card | Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
59'
59' Yellow Card | V. Bernedo
U. Catolica
Metric
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
2.21
0.89
final
Zablokirovannye udary
1
0
final
Shots off target
10
5
final
Shots on target
6
4
final
Udary vsego
17
9
final
Fouls soversheno
12
15
final
Zheltye kartochki
5
4
final
Offsides
0
2
final
Cruzeiro
#2 Kauã Moraes, #6 Kaiki, #8 Matheus Henrique, #11 Gerson, #15 Fabrício Bruno, #22 Néiser Villarreal, #25 Lucas Villalba, #31 Matheus Cunha, #88 Christian
U. Catolica
#1 V. Bernedo, #2 D. Gonzalez, #3 E. Mena, #7 J. Giani, #8 F. Zuqui, #9 F. Zampedri, #11 C. Montes, #15 C. Cuevas, #19 B. Ampuero, #20 J. Valencia, #26 J. Diaz
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
Daniel González
football.player.assists
0
Daniel González
Dribling popytki
2
Daniel González
Dribling uspeshno
1
Daniel González
Edinoborstva vsego
2
Daniel González
Edinoborstva vyigrano
8
Daniel González
Seyvy
0
Daniel González
football.player.minutes_played
90
Daniel González
Klyuchevye pasy
16
Daniel González
Reyting (staryy)
6.2
Daniel González
Shots on target
1
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Cruzeiro
66.7%
-
market favourite
Draw
21.4%
100.0%
draw risk
U. Catolica
11.9%
-
Total 2.5
Over 56.6%
-
Under 43.4%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.79
Favourite-trap risk
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.79
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
7.95
market consensus · line only
X
4.45
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.40
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
2.86
market consensus · line only
12
1.18
market consensus · line only
1X
1.07
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
2.87
market consensus · line only
2 -1
2.17
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
6.60
market consensus · line only
1 -0.5
1.42
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.95
market consensus · value +10.3% · model 56.6%
Under 2.5
1.86
market consensus · no value · model 43.4%
Both teams to score
No
1.62
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.19
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 1.40 71.4% | |
| X | 4.75 21.1% |
| 7.50 13.3% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.42 70.4% | 1.48 67.6% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.36 73.5% | |
| X | 4.30 23.3% | 3.95 25.3% | 4.50 22.2% | 4.75 21.1% | 4.60 21.7% | 4.50 22.2% |
| 7.50 13.3% | 5.80 17.2% | 7.95 12.6% | 7.50 13.3% | 9.00 11.1% | 8.50 11.8% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | Unibet | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.62 61.7% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.61 62.1% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.58 63.3% | 1.65 60.6% |
| yes | 2.15 46.5% | 2.21 45.3% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.12 47.2% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.14 46.7% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.15 46.5% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 2.85 35.1% | 2.83 35.3% | 2.75 36.4% | 2.95 33.9% | 3.00 33.3% | 2.89 34.6% |
| home_away | 1.17 85.5% | 1.21 82.6% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.18 84.8% |
| home_draw | 1.05 95.2% | 1.08 92.6% | 1.10 90.9% | 1.10 90.9% | 1.07 93.5% | 1.06 94.3% |
Match center
Cruzeiro
Founded
1921
U. Catolica
Founded
1937
Match center
Cruzeiro
W
Cruzeiro
1:0
Barcelona SC
Barcelona SC
1
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
1.0
Scored
0.0
Conceded
3
Points
U. Catolica
L
U. Catolica
1:2
Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
0
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
1.0
Scored
2.0
Conceded
0
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyCruzeiro - U. Catolica
Cruzeiro
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form