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CONMEBOL Libertadores
CONMEBOL Libertadores World
Group A. 4 round 06.05.2026 22:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
06.05.2026 22:00 UTC Group A. 4 round
Finished

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Cusco - Estudiantes L.P.

World Football
Cusco
Cusco
1 : 1
Finished
Estudiantes L.P.
Estudiantes L.P.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Cusco - Estudiantes L.P. May 6, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Estudiantes L.P..

Line favourite market consensus: Estudiantes L.P.. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.25 / X 3.05 / 2 2.31
  • 1X2 market: Cusco 28.8% / X 30.7% / Estudiantes L.P. 40.5%
  • Glicko: Cusco - / X 100.0% / Estudiantes L.P. -
  • Total 2.5: over probability 52.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.8%
1 28.8%
X 30.7%
2 40.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.7%
Over 2.5 38.2%
Under 2.5 61.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

Glavnyy konsensus AI: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 4/6
Confidence 71.5%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 06.05.2026 22:00 UTC
Match center

Cusco - Estudiantes L.P.

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Kusko - Estudiantes LP, 7 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Cup Libertadores 2026, Group A. 4 round. Kusko - Estudiantes LP, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 3/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 15
Statistics 22
Lineups 46
min Event Player Team
37' 37' Normal Goal | Lucas Colitto L. Colitto Cusco
41' 41' Yellow Card | Alexis Castro A. Castro Estudiantes L.P.
45' 45' Yellow Card | Aldair Fuentes A. Fuentes Cusco
58' 58' Normal Goal | T. Palacios | assist/sub out: Mikel Amondarain T. Palacios Estudiantes L.P.
61' 61' Substitution 1 | Iván Colman | assist/sub out: Juan Tévez I. Colman Cusco
61' 61' Substitution 2 | Lucas Colitto | assist/sub out: Nicolás Silva L. Colitto Cusco
65' 65' Substitution 1 | Fabricio Pérez | assist/sub out: Edwuin Cetré Perez Fabricio Estudiantes L.P.
65' 65' Substitution 2 | Guido Carrillo | assist/sub out: Facundo Farías G. Carrillo Estudiantes L.P.
Metric Cusco Estudiantes L.P. SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.02 0.86 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 3 final
Shots off target 4 5 final
Shots on target 8 2 final
Udary vsego 14 10 final
Fouls soversheno 8 5 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 3 final
Offsides 6 0 final
Cusco #7 J. Manzaneda, #9 Facundo Callejo, #16 O. Valenzuela, #21 J. Zevallos, #28 P. Díaz, #6 Á. Ampuero, #10 I. Colman, #88 D. Soto, #8 A. Fuentes, #22 L. Colitto, #24 M. Ruidías
Estudiantes L.P. #9 G. Carrillo, #13 G. Benedetti, #16 F. Muslera, #22 A. Castro, #29 Perez Fabricio, #8 Gabriel Neves, #10 T. Palacios, #24 T. Palacios, #14 L. Gonzalez Pirez, #32 M. Amondarain, #20 E. Meza
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Castro Estudiantes L.P. football.player.minutes_played 76
E. Cetre Estudiantes L.P. football.player.minutes_played 29
E. Mancuso Estudiantes L.P. football.player.minutes_played 18
E. Meza Estudiantes L.P. football.player.minutes_played 85
F. Farias Estudiantes L.P. football.player.minutes_played 29
F. Muslera Estudiantes L.P. football.player.minutes_played 94
G. Benedetti Estudiantes L.P. football.player.minutes_played 94
G. Carrillo Estudiantes L.P. football.player.minutes_played 65
Gabriel Neves Estudiantes L.P. football.player.minutes_played 94
L. Alario Estudiantes L.P. football.player.minutes_played 9
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Cusco 29.9% -
Draw 29.9% 100.0% draw risk
Estudiantes L.P. 40.3% - market favourite
Total 2.5 Over 52.6% - Under 47.4%
Model check - - Difference 0.70
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.70

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.63 market consensus · line only
X 1.04 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.33 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.32 market consensus · line only
12 1.34 market consensus · line only
1X 1.58 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.37 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.14 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.29 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.79 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.48 market consensus · value +30.5% · model 52.6%
Under 2.5 1.53 market consensus · no value · model 47.4%
Both teams to score
No 1.71 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.04 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
3.25 30.8% 3.38 29.6% 3.20 31.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.35 29.9% 3.30 30.3%
X 3.05 32.8% 3.13 32.0% 2.90 34.5% 3.25 30.8% 3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3%
2.30 43.5% 2.35 42.6% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.35 42.6% 2.20 45.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Unibet William Hill
no 1.70 58.8% 1.69 59.2% 1.73 57.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.77 56.5% 1.73 57.8%
yes 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.07 48.3% 2.15 46.5% 2.05 48.8% 1.92 52.1% 2.00 50.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.35 74.1% 1.30 76.9%
home_away 1.30 76.9% 1.37 73.0% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.35 74.1% 1.33 75.2%
home_draw 1.57 63.7% 1.61 62.1% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.10 90.9% 1.06 94.3%
Over 0.75 — 1.08 92.6%
Over 1.0 — 1.11 90.1%
Over 1.25 — 1.28 78.1%
Over 1.5 1.50 66.7% 1.44 69.4%
Over 1.75 — 1.59 62.9%
Over 2.0 — 1.82 55.0%
Over 2.25 — 2.21 45.3%
Over 2.5 2.45 40.8% —
Over 3.5 4.75 21.1% —
Over 4.5 9.50 10.5% —
Under 0.5 6.50 15.4% —
Under 1.5 2.55 39.2% —
Under 2.5 1.53 65.4% —
Under 3.5 1.18 84.8% —
Under 4.5 1.05 95.2% —
Match center
Cusco
Founded 2008
Estudiantes L.P.
Founded 1905
Match center
Cusco
L L L
01.05 02:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Cusco 0:1 Independiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin
14.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Cusco 1:2 Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.
09.04 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Cusco 0:2 FlamengoFlamengo
0 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
0.3 Scored
1.7 Conceded
0 Points
Estudiantes L.P.
D W D W L
30.04 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Estudiantes L.P. 1:1 FlamengoFlamengo
14.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Estudiantes L.P. 2:1 CuscoCusco
09.04 00:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Estudiantes L.P. 1:1 Independiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin
26.09 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Estudiantes L.P. 1:0 FlamengoFlamengo
19.09 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Estudiantes L.P. 1:2 FlamengoFlamengo
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.0 Conceded
8 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyCusco - Estudiantes L.P.

Cusco
1 matches total
Estudiantes L.P.
Cusco: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Estudiantes L.P.: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Estudiantes L.P. 1:2 (14.04 22:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 14.04 22:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 1

Match history

14.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Cusco
1:2
Estudiantes L.P.
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Cusco
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Estudiantes L.P.
Cusco Team comparison Estudiantes L.P.
3 Games 3
0 Wins 1
0 Draws 2
3 Losses 0
1 Scored 4
5 Conceded 3
0 Points 5
0 Attacks 0
0 Dangerous attacks 0
0 Big chances 0
0 Shots on goal 0
2.33 Shots on target 7
prezhdeniya 4 0.33 Sendoffs 0 Goly Lukas Kolitto 1:0 37' Tyago Palasios Mikel Amondarain 1 58' Nakazaniya Aleksis Kastro 41' Aldair Fuentes 45' Fakundo Farias 85' Gabriel Neves 89'

Kusko Estudiantes LP 3 Games 3 0 Wins 1 0 Draws 2 3 Losses 0 1 Scored 4 5 Conceded 3 0 Points 5 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 2.33 Udary v stvor 7 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 2 Uglovye 4.33 3 Offsaydy 1 7 Foly 13.33 45 % vladeniya myachom 51 2 Warnings 4 0.33 Sendoffs 0 Goly Lukas Kolitto 1:0 37' Tyago Palasios Mikel Amondarain 1 58' Nakazaniya Aleksis Kastro 41' Aldair Fuentes 45' Fakundo Farias 85' Gabriel Neves 89'