Match center
Start
09.04.2026 00:30 UTC
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09.04.2026 00:30 UTC
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Cusco - Flamengo
0
:
2
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Cusco - Flamengo April 9, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Flamengo.
Line favourite market consensus: Flamengo. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.65 / X 3.35 / 2 1.82
- 1X2 market: Cusco 20.3% / X 28.1% / Flamengo 51.7%
- Glicko: Cusco - / X 100.0% / Flamengo -
- Total 2.5: over probability 43.2%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.3%
1
20.2%
X
28.1%
2
51.7%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 6.4%
Over 2.5
42.3%
Under 2.5
57.7%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
3/4
Confidence
71.7%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:2
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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Match center
Cusco - Flamengo
Cusco: Win 4.75 Cusco: Draw 3.30 Flamengo Win: 1.85 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.25 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Cusco bolshe 0.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Cusco menshe 0.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Flamengo bolshe 1.5: 2.…
Form
0/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
0:2
Events
14
Statistics
24
Lineups
39
min
Event
Player
Team
37'
37' Yellow Card
Cusco
59'
59' Normal Goal | Bruno Henrique
Fabricio Formiliano
Flamengo
60'
60' Substitution 1 | Nicolás Silva | assist/sub out: Joel Herrera
F. O. Ness
Cusco
60'
60' Substitution 2 | Lucas Colitto | assist/sub out: José Miguel Manzaneda
Cusco
61'
61' Substitution 3 | Gabriel Carabajal | assist/sub out: Juan Tévez
I. Ivušić
Cusco
65'
65' Goal Disallowed - offside | Marlon Ruidías
Cusco
71'
71' Substitution 1 | Jorge Carrascal | assist/sub out: Luiz Araújo
D. Kovalevich
Flamengo
81'
81' Substitution 4 | Jose Bolivar | assist/sub out: José Zevallos
Cusco
Metric
Cusco
Flamengo
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
0.32
1.04
final
Zablokirovannye udary
5
5
final
Shots off target
1
4
final
Shots on target
2
10
final
Udary vsego
8
19
final
Fouls soversheno
12
7
final
Zheltye kartochki
2
0
final
Offsides
5
2
final
Cusco
#1 A. Rossi, #4 Léo Pereira, #6 Ayrton Lucas, #13 Danilo, #15 J. Carrascal, #18 N. de la Cruz, #19 G. Plata, #20 Lucas Paqueta, #22 Emerson Royal, #52 Evertton Araujo
Flamengo
#6 Á. Ampuero, #8 A. Fuentes, #9 Facundo Callejo, #15 J. Bolívar, #16 O. Valenzuela, #24 M. Ruidías, #26 N. Silva, #27 G. Carabajal, #28 P. Díaz, #88 D. Soto
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
José Alí Gutiérrez
Seyvy
0
Á. Ampuero
Flamengo
football.player.assists
0
Á. Ampuero
Flamengo
Dribling popytki
6
Á. Ampuero
Flamengo
Dribling uspeshno
2
Á. Ampuero
Flamengo
Edinoborstva vsego
1
Á. Ampuero
Flamengo
Edinoborstva vyigrano
7
Á. Ampuero
Flamengo
Fouls soversheno
2
Á. Ampuero
Flamengo
Fouls na igroke
1
Á. Ampuero
Flamengo
Seyvy
0
Á. Ampuero
Flamengo
football.player.minutes_played
90
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Cusco
18.5%
-
Draw
28.6%
100.0%
draw risk
Flamengo
52.9%
-
market favourite
Total 2.5
Over 43.2%
-
Under 56.9%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.71
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.71
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.82
market consensus · line only
X
3.34
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
4.64
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.17
market consensus · line only
12
1.28
market consensus · line only
1X
1.98
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.20
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.04
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
1.79
market consensus · line only
2 +1
2.51
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.22
market consensus · no value · model 43.2%
Under 2.5
1.63
market consensus · no value · model 56.9%
Both teams to score
No
1.71
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.02
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 4.50 22.2% | |
| X | 3.30 30.3% |
| 1.85 54.1% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.50 22.2% | 3.95 25.3% | 4.88 20.5% | 4.50 22.2% | 5.10 19.6% | 4.75 21.1% | |
| X | 3.30 30.3% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.44 29.1% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.45 29.0% | 3.20 31.3% |
| 1.84 54.4% | 1.84 54.4% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.80 55.6% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.73 57.8% | 1.71 58.5% | 1.72 58.1% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.67 59.9% |
| yes | 2.00 50.0% | 2.11 47.4% | 2.01 49.8% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.01 49.8% | 2.05 48.8% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.20 83.3% | 1.19 84.0% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.20 83.3% |
| home_away | 1.25 80.0% | 1.32 75.8% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.31 76.3% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.25 80.0% |
| home_draw | 1.91 52.4% | 2.00 50.0% | 1.95 51.3% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.00 50.0% | 1.91 52.4% |
Match center
Cusco
Founded
2008
Flamengo
Founded
1895
Match center
Flamengo
W
D
W
L
W
Flamengo
1:0
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
Flamengo
0:0
Racing Club
Flamengo
1:0
Racing Club
Flamengo
0:1
Estudiantes L.P.
Estudiantes L.P.
Flamengo
2:1
Estudiantes L.P.
Estudiantes L.P.
3
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
0.8
Scored
0.4
Conceded
10
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyCusco - Flamengo
Cusco
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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The Cusco - Flamengo breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form