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CONMEBOL Libertadores World

29.04.2026 02:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction

29.04.2026 02:00 UTC

Finished

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Deportes Tolima - Coquimbo Unido

World Football

Deportes Tolima

3 : 0

Finished

Coquimbo Unido

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Deportes Tolima - Coquimbo Unido April 29, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Deportes Tolima.

Line favourite market consensus: Deportes Tolima. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.63 / X 3.48 / 2 6.11
1X2 market: Deportes Tolima 57.4% / X 27.0% / Coquimbo Unido 15.6%
Glicko: Deportes Tolima - / X 100.0% / Coquimbo Unido -
Total 2.5: over probability 8.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.5%

1 57.6%

X 27.0%

2 15.4%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.2%

Over 2.5 40.1%

Under 2.5 59.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X

Agreement 3/4

Confidence 72.0%

Total Under 2.5

Score 0:0

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 29.04.2026 02:00 UTC

Match center

Deportes Tolima - Coquimbo Unido

Deportes Tolima: Win 2.05 Deportes Tolima: Draw 3.20 Coquimbo Unido Win: 3.60 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.40 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov Deportes Tolima bolshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Deportes Tolima menshe 1.5: 1.50 Indi…

Form 5/2 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:0

Events 16

Statistics 24

Lineups 46

min Event Player Team

18' 18' Yellow Card | C. Zavala C. Zavala Coquimbo Unido

18' 18' Yellow Card | C. Arrieta C. Arrieta Deportes Tolima

56' 56' Substitution 1 | B. Chandía | assist/sub out: G. Vadalá B. Chandia Coquimbo Unido

59' 59' Yellow Card | M. Fernández Manu Fernández Coquimbo Unido

59' 59' Penalty | S. Guzmán S. Guzmán Deportes Tolima

66' 66' Normal Goal | L. Sandoval | assist/sub out: J. Torres L. Sandoval Deportes Tolima

67' 67' Substitution 2 | A. Azócar | assist/sub out: L. Riveros A. E. Azocar Machuca Coquimbo Unido

67' 67' Substitution 3 | A. Azócar | assist/sub out: L. Riveros A. E. Azocar Machuca Coquimbo Unido

Metric Deportes Tolima Coquimbo Unido SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.16 0.46 final

Zablokirovannye udary 5 0 final

Shots off target 4 4 final

Shots on target 5 5 final

Udary vsego 14 9 final

Fouls soversheno 14 9 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 3 final

Offsides 0 2 final

Deportes Tolima #1 Neto Volpi, #9 L. Sandoval, #17 C. Arrieta, #18 K. Flórez, #24 A. Parra, #2 A. Angulo, #80 B. Rovira, #3 J. Angulo, #32 S. Guzmán, #10 J. Torres, #28 E. López

Coquimbo Unido #7 S. Galani, #9 N. Johansen, #11 A. E. Azocar Machuca, #13 Davinson Sánchez, #16 J. Cornejo, #3 Manu Fernández, #8 A. Camargo, #30 B. Chandia, #2 B. Gazzolo, #15 C. Zavala, #17 F. Salinas

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Angulo Deportes Tolima football.player.assists 0

A. Angulo Deportes Tolima Dribling popytki 3

A. Angulo Deportes Tolima Edinoborstva vsego 1

A. Angulo Deportes Tolima Edinoborstva vyigrano 3

A. Angulo Deportes Tolima Seyvy 0

A. Angulo Deportes Tolima football.player.minutes_played 90

A. Angulo Deportes Tolima Klyuchevye pasy 58

A. Angulo Deportes Tolima Reyting (staryy) 7.2

A. Angulo Deportes Tolima Bloki 1

A. Angulo Deportes Tolima Otbory vsego 52

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Deportes Tolima 45.1% - market favourite

Draw 29.3% 100.0% draw risk

Coquimbo Unido 25.6% -

Total 2.5 Over 8.8% - Under 91.2%

Model check - - Difference 0.71

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.71

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 6.13 market consensus · line only

X 3.50 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.63 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 2.23 market consensus · line only

12 1.27 market consensus · line only

1X 1.12 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.31 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.71 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 4.57 market consensus · line only

2 +1 9.85 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.35 market consensus · no value · model 8.8%

Under 2.5 1.57 market consensus · value +43.2% · model 91.2%

Both teams to score

No 1.58 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.25 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.60 62.5%
X	3.70 27.0%
	6.50 15.4%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.58 63.3%	1.64 61.0%	1.95 51.3%	1.60 62.5%	1.62 61.7%	1.57 63.7%
X	3.45 29.0%	3.62 27.6%	3.00 33.3%	3.70 27.0%	3.60 27.8%	3.30 30.3%
	6.60 15.2%	6.48 15.4%	3.90 25.6%	6.50 15.4%	6.60 15.2%	6.00 16.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.57 63.7%	1.55 64.5%	1.67 59.9%	1.57 63.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.61 62.1%
yes	2.25 44.4%	2.31 43.3%	2.10 47.6%	2.25 44.4%	2.32 43.1%	2.25 44.4%	2.30 43.5%	2.31 43.3%	2.16 46.3%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.30 43.5%	2.29 43.7%	1.75 57.1%	2.20 45.5%	2.37 42.2%	2.30 43.5%
home_away	1.25 80.0%	1.30 76.9%	1.33 75.2%	1.28 78.1%	1.27 78.7%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.10 90.9%	1.12 89.3%	1.25 80.0%	1.12 89.3%	1.13 88.5%	1.11 90.1%

Match center

Deportes Tolima

Founded 1954

Coquimbo Unido

Founded 1957

Match center

Deportes Tolima

L D W L L

14.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Deportes Tolima 1:3 Club Nacional

08.04 02:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Deportes Tolima 0:0 Universitario

12.03 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Deportes Tolima 2:0 O'Higgins

05.03 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Deportes Tolima 0:1 O'Higgins

27.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Deportes Tolima 0:1 Deportivo Tachira FC

1 Wins

1 Draws

3 Losses

0.6 Scored

1.0 Conceded

4 Points

Coquimbo Unido

W D

15.04 02:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Coquimbo Unido 2:0 Universitario

08.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Coquimbo Unido 1:1 Club Nacional

1 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

1.5 Scored

0.5 Conceded

4 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyDeportes Tolima - Coquimbo Unido

Deportes Tolima

0 matches total

Coquimbo Unido

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.