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Start
08.04.2026 02:00 UTC
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08.04.2026 02:00 UTC
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Deportes Tolima - Universitario
0
:
0
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Deportes Tolima - Universitario April 8, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Deportes Tolima.
Line favourite market consensus: Deportes Tolima. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.96 / X 3.03 / 2 4.50
- 1X2 market: Deportes Tolima 48.0% / X 30.9% / Universitario 21.0%
- Glicko: Deportes Tolima - / X 100.0% / Universitario -
- Total 2.5: over probability 48.3%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.2%
1
48.0%
X
31.1%
2
20.9%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 6.2%
Over 2.5
37.7%
Under 2.5
62.3%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
3/4
Confidence
73.3%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
1:1
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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Match center
Deportes Tolima - Universitario
Deportes Tolima: Win 2.05 Deportes Tolima: Draw 2.90 Universitario Win: 4.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 1.5: 1.50 Obschiy total golov menshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Deportes Tolima bolshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Deportes Tolima menshe 1.5: 1.50 Indiv…
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
0:0
Events
9
Statistics
22
Lineups
41
min
Event
Player
Team
46'
46' Substitution 1 | Jherson Mosquera | assist/sub out: Jersson González
Deportes Tolima
52'
52' Substitution 1 | José Rivera | assist/sub out: Edison Flores
Universitario
52'
52' Substitution 2 | Martín Pérez Guedes | assist/sub out: Miguel Silveira
T. Chogadze
Universitario
67'
67' Substitution 2 | Luis Sandoval | assist/sub out: Yordan Osorio
Deportes Tolima
70'
70' Substitution 3 | Alex Valera | assist/sub out: Bryan Reyna
Universitario
77'
77' Substitution 4 | Jairo Concha | assist/sub out: Héctor Fértoli
Universitario
77'
77' Substitution 5 | Jesús Castillo | assist/sub out: Horacio Calcaterra
Universitario
78'
78' Substitution 3 | Junior Hernández | assist/sub out: Neifer Sanchez
Deportes Tolima
Metric
Deportes Tolima
Universitario
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
0.42
0.5
final
Zablokirovannye udary
2
3
final
Shots off target
3
5
final
Shots on target
4
3
final
Udary vsego
9
11
final
Fouls soversheno
13
13
final
Offsides
2
0
final
Ball possession, %
66
34
final
Deportes Tolima
#1 Neto Volpi, #3 J. Angulo, #6 C. Trujillo, #9 L. Sandoval, #10 J. Torres, #17 C. Arrieta, #24 A. Parra, #32 S. Guzmán, #80 B. Rovira
Universitario
#2 C. Fara, #3 W. Riveros, #5 M. Di Benedetto, #6 J. Castillo, #11 J. Rivera, #16 M. Perez Guedes, #17 J. Concha, #20 A. Valera, #25 M. Vargas, #27 J. Carabalí, #33 C. Inga
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
A. Parra
Deportes Tolima
football.player.assists
0
A. Parra
Deportes Tolima
Dribling popytki
7
A. Parra
Deportes Tolima
Dribling uspeshno
1
A. Parra
Deportes Tolima
Edinoborstva vyigrano
13
A. Parra
Deportes Tolima
Fouls soversheno
1
A. Parra
Deportes Tolima
Conceded golov
1
A. Parra
Deportes Tolima
Seyvy
0
A. Parra
Deportes Tolima
football.player.minutes_played
90
A. Parra
Deportes Tolima
Klyuchevye pasy
18
A. Parra
Deportes Tolima
Pasy vsego
1
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Deportes Tolima
44.0%
-
market favourite
Draw
33.0%
100.0%
draw risk
Universitario
23.0%
-
Total 2.5
Over 48.3%
-
Under 51.7%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.67
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.67
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
Rating
1,425 / 1,571
Deportes Tolima / Universitario
RD
193 / 262
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
4.55
market consensus · line only
X
3.03
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.95
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.82
market consensus · line only
12
1.34
market consensus · line only
1X
1.19
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.88
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.41
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
4.32
market consensus · line only
2 +1
8.80
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.50
market consensus · weak value +20.7% · model 48.3%
Under 2.5
1.51
market consensus · no value · model 51.7%
Both teams to score
No
1.63
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.15
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 1.90 52.6% | |
| X | 3.00 33.3% |
| 5.25 19.1% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.90 52.6% | 2.13 47.0% | 1.98 50.5% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.87 53.5% | |
| X | 3.15 31.8% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.12 32.1% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.05 32.8% | 3.00 33.3% |
| 4.40 22.7% | 3.40 29.4% | 4.63 21.6% | 5.25 19.1% | 4.80 20.8% | 4.60 21.7% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Superbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.65 60.6% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.63 61.4% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.61 62.1% | 1.71 58.5% |
| yes | 2.10 47.6% | 2.23 44.8% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.05 48.8% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.85 54.1% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.83 54.6% |
| home_away | 1.28 78.1% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.35 74.1% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.29 77.5% |
| home_draw | 1.20 83.3% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.21 82.6% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.20 83.3% |
Match center
Deportes Tolima
Founded
1954
Universitario
Founded
1924
Match center
Deportes Tolima
W
L
L
W
L
Deportes Tolima
2:0
O'Higgins
O'Higgins
Deportes Tolima
0:1
O'Higgins
O'Higgins
Deportes Tolima
0:1
Deportivo Tachira FC
Deportes Tolima
1:0
Deportivo Tachira FC
Deportes Tolima
0:1
FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
2
Wins
0
Draws
3
Losses
0.6
Scored
0.6
Conceded
6
Points
Universitario
D
L
D
W
D
Universitario
0:0
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
Universitario
0:4
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
Universitario
1:1
River Plate
Universitario
1:0
Barcelona SC
Barcelona SC
Universitario
1:1
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
1
Wins
3
Draws
1
Losses
0.6
Scored
1.2
Conceded
6
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyDeportes Tolima - Universitario
Deportes Tolima
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form