CONMEBOL Libertadores
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bolivar.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model consensus
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi La-Guayra - Bolivar, 7 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Cup Libertadores 2026, Group C. 4 round. La-Guayra - Bolivar, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.76 36.2% | 2.85 35.1% | 2.70 37.0% | 2.80 35.7% | 2.85 35.1% | 2.80 35.7% | |
| X | 3.10 32.3% | 3.16 31.7% | 2.90 34.5% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.10 32.3% |
| 2.60 38.5% | 2.66 37.6% | 2.63 38.0% | 2.70 37.0% | 2.65 37.7% | 2.50 40.0% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.80 55.6% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.82 55.0% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.78 56.2% | 1.75 57.1% |
| yes | 1.90 52.6% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.93 51.8% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.93 51.8% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.42 70.4% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.45 69.0% | 1.40 71.4% |
| home_away | 1.30 76.9% | 1.37 73.0% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.35 74.1% | 1.33 75.2% |
| home_draw | 1.45 69.0% | 1.49 67.1% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.53 65.4% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.08 92.6% | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 0.75 | — | 1.05 95.2% |
| Over 1.0 | — | 1.07 93.5% |
| Over 1.25 | — | 1.22 82.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.42 70.4% | 1.37 73.0% |
| Over 1.75 | — | 1.50 66.7% |
| Over 2.0 | — | 1.67 59.9% |
| Over 2.25 | — | 2.04 49.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.25 44.4% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 4.33 23.1% | — |
| Over 4.5 | 8.50 11.8% | — |
| Under 0.5 | 7.50 13.3% | — |
| Under 1.5 | 2.80 35.7% | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.62 61.7% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.20 83.3% | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.06 94.3% | — |
Deportivo La Guaira
Bolivar
Deportivo La Guaira
Independ. Rivadavia
Bolívar
Fluminense
Bolivar
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
Independ. Rivadavia
Cerro Porteno
Palmeiras
Full head-to-head historyDeportivo La Guaira - Bolivar
La-Guayra Bolivar 3 Games 3 0 Wins 1 2 Draws 1 Losses 1 2 Scored 3 5 Conceded 2 Points 4 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 1.67 Udary v stvor 7.33 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 2.33 Uglovye 6 2 Offsaydy 2 11 Foly 11.67 36.67 % vladeniya myachom 62.33 1.33 Warnings 1 0.33 Sendoffs 0.33 Goly Khose Mesa Jorge Gutierrez 1:0 31' Lionel Khustinyano 1 90+4' Nakazaniya Lionel Khustinyano 45+2' Khaver Arreaga 72' Gilermo Ortis 81' Luis Casimiro Pena 90+3' Khose Sagredo 90+3' Antoni Uribe 90+4' Kristofer Varela 90+9'
The Deportivo La Guaira - Bolivar breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
