Match center
Start
07.04.2026 22:00 UTC
Sign in to unlock the full prediction
Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
07.04.2026 22:00 UTC
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Deportivo La Guaira - Fluminense
0
:
0
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Deportivo La Guaira - Fluminense April 7, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Fluminense.
Line favourite market consensus: Fluminense. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 6.04 / X 3.77 / 2 1.58
- 1X2 market: Deportivo La Guaira 15.6% / X 24.9% / Fluminense 59.5%
- Glicko: Deportivo La Guaira - / X 100.0% / Fluminense -
- Total 2.5: over probability 45.8%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.4%
1
15.6%
X
24.9%
2
59.5%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.6%
Over 2.5
43.6%
Under 2.5
56.4%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
3/4
Confidence
70.4%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:2
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
Buy the full AI analysis
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Match center
Deportivo La Guaira - Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira: Win 6.25 Deportivo La Guaira: Draw 3.80 Fluminense Win: 1.60 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.15 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Deportivo La Guaira bolshe 0.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Deportivo La Guaira menshe 0.…
Form
0/2
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
0:0
Events
14
Statistics
24
Lineups
34
min
Event
Player
Team
46'
46' Substitution 1 | José Correa | assist/sub out: Carlos Faya
Deportivo La Guaira
52'
52' Substitution 2 | Franco Cáceres | assist/sub out: Yackson Rivas
Deportivo La Guaira
60'
60' Yellow Card | Diego Osío
Deportivo La Guaira
65'
65' Substitution 1 | Jefferson Savarino | assist/sub out: Yeferson Soteldo
Fluminense
66'
66' Substitution 2 | Agustín Canobbio | assist/sub out: Kevin Serna
Fluminense
66'
66' Substitution 3 | John Kennedy | assist/sub out: Rodrigo Castillo
Fluminense
70'
70' Yellow Card | Carlos Rivero
Deportivo La Guaira
74'
74' Substitution 3 | José Alí Meza | assist/sub out: J. Paredes
Deportivo La Guaira
Metric
Deportivo La Guaira
Fluminense
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
0.14
1.03
final
Zablokirovannye udary
3
8
final
Shots off target
2
3
final
Shots on target
1
7
final
Udary vsego
6
18
final
Fouls soversheno
10
9
final
Zheltye kartochki
4
0
final
Offsides
5
0
final
Deportivo La Guaira
#1 Fábio, #2 Samuel Xavier, #3 Jemmes, #6 Renê, #9 John Kennedy, #11 Jefferson Savarino, #17 A. Canobbio, #22 J. Freytes, #35 Hércules
Fluminense
#1 C. Varela, #3 Diego Osío, #7 J. Meza, #8 J. Perdomo, #13 R. Ibarra, #20 J. Gutierrez, #27 J. Correa, #32 F. Caceres, #36 F. Londono
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
L. PeG±a
football.player.assists
0
L. PeG±a
Dribling popytki
5
L. PeG±a
Dribling uspeshno
1
L. PeG±a
Edinoborstva vsego
3
L. PeG±a
Edinoborstva vyigrano
8
L. PeG±a
Fouls soversheno
3
L. PeG±a
Fouls na igroke
1
L. PeG±a
Seyvy
0
L. PeG±a
football.player.minutes_played
90
L. PeG±a
Klyuchevye pasy
24
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Deportivo La Guaira
15.8%
-
Draw
25.3%
100.0%
draw risk
Fluminense
59.0%
-
market favourite
Total 2.5
Over 45.8%
-
Under 54.2%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.75
Favourite-trap risk
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.75
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.57
market consensus · line only
X
3.78
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
6.07
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.12
market consensus · line only
12
1.24
market consensus · line only
1X
2.31
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.15
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.01
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
1.57
market consensus · line only
2 +1
2.02
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.17
market consensus · no value · model 45.8%
Under 2.5
1.68
market consensus · no value · model 54.2%
Both teams to score
No
1.64
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.15
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 6.50 15.4% | |
| X | 3.90 25.6% |
| 1.55 64.5% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.00 16.7% | 5.00 20.0% | 6.33 15.8% | 6.50 15.4% | 6.50 15.4% | 6.00 16.7% | |
| X | 3.75 26.7% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.89 25.7% | 3.90 25.6% | 3.90 25.6% | 3.80 26.3% |
| 1.58 63.3% | 1.59 62.9% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.55 64.5% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.53 65.4% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Superbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.62 61.7% | 1.64 61.0% | 1.63 61.4% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.68 59.5% |
| yes | 2.15 46.5% | 2.23 44.8% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.16 46.3% | 2.12 47.2% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.12 89.3% | 1.12 89.3% | 1.12 89.3% | 1.15 87.0% | 1.11 90.1% | 1.13 88.5% |
| home_away | 1.20 83.3% | 1.27 78.7% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.26 79.4% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.20 83.3% |
| home_draw | 2.30 43.5% | 2.38 42.0% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.37 42.2% | 2.40 41.7% | 2.30 43.5% |
Match center
Deportivo La Guaira
Founded
2008
Fluminense
Founded
1902
Match center
Fluminense
L
W
Fluminense
0:2
Atletico-MG
Fluminense
1:0
Atletico-MG
1
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
0.5
Scored
1.0
Conceded
3
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyDeportivo La Guaira - Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
Unlock the full match prediction
The Deportivo La Guaira - Fluminense breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form