Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.

CONMEBOL Libertadores World

Group C. 5 round 21.05.2026 22:00 UTC Match prediction

21.05.2026 22:00 UTC Group C. 5 round

Finished

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Deportivo La Guaira - Independ. Rivadavia

World Football

Deportivo La Guaira

2 : 4

Finished

Independ. Rivadavia

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Deportivo La Guaira - Independ. Rivadavia May 21, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Independ. Rivadavia.

Line favourite market consensus: Independ. Rivadavia. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.27 / X 2.99 / 2 2.01
1X2 market: Deportivo La Guaira 22.0% / X 31.4% / Independ. Rivadavia 46.6%
Total 2.5: over probability 67.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.6%

1 22.0%

X 31.4%

2 46.7%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.1%

Over 2.5 32.2%

Under 2.5 67.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: Deportivo La Guaira

Main outcome Deportivo La Guaira

Agreement 1/1

Confidence 40.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center

Start 21.05.2026 22:00 UTC

Match center

Deportivo La Guaira - Independ. Rivadavia

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi La-Guayra - Independente Rivadaviya, 22 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Cup Libertadores 2026, Group C. 5 round. La-Guayra - Independente Rivadaviya, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 4/4 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:4

Events 21

Statistics 22

Lineups 46

min Event Player Team

20' 20' Normal Goal | A. Arce | assist/sub out: S. Villa A. Arce Independ. Rivadavia

29' 29' Normal Goal | D. Osio | assist/sub out: G. Ortiz Diego Osío Deportivo La Guaira

34' 34' Normal Goal | S. Villa | assist/sub out: M. Fernandez S. Villa Independ. Rivadavia

44' 44' Yellow Card | Y. Rivas Y. Rivas Deportivo La Guaira

44' 44' Yellow Card | L. Gomez L. Gomez Independ. Rivadavia

46' 46' Substitution 1 | R. Arace | assist/sub out: José Alí Meza R. Arace Deportivo La Guaira

46' 46' Substitution 2 | M. Gianoli | assist/sub out: J. Castellanos M. Gianoli Deportivo La Guaira

60' 60' Substitution 4 | J. Correa | assist/sub out: R. Ibarra J. Correa Deportivo La Guaira

Metric Deportivo La Guaira Independ. Rivadavia SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.81 2.63 final

Zablokirovannye udary 3 2 final

Shots off target 7 6 final

Shots on target 5 7 final

Udary vsego 15 15 final

Fouls soversheno 9 15 final

Zheltye kartochki 3 2 final

Offsides 0 1 final

Deportivo La Guaira #1 C. Varela, #5 M. Gianoli, #18 Y. Rivas, #20 J. Gutierrez, #36 F. Londono, #3 Diego OsGo, #6 C. Faya, #77 R. Arace, #24 G. Ortiz, #27 J. Correa, #16 L. PeG±a

Independ. Rivadavia #1 N. Bolcato, #3 J. M. Elordi, #9 A. Arce, #22 S. Villa, #25 J. Florentín, #5 T. Bottari, #10 M. Fernandez, #42 S. Studer, #2 L. Costa, #11 G. Rios, #14 L. Gomez

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Arce Independ. Rivadavia football.player.goals 3

A. Arce Independ. Rivadavia football.player.minutes_played 86

E. Bonifacio Independ. Rivadavia football.player.minutes_played 23

F. Sartori Independ. Rivadavia football.player.minutes_played 11

G. Rios Independ. Rivadavia football.player.minutes_played 74

J. Florentín Independ. Rivadavia football.player.minutes_played 80

J. M. Elordi Independ. Rivadavia football.player.minutes_played 97

K. Vázquez Independ. Rivadavia football.player.minutes_played 23

L. Bucca Independ. Rivadavia football.player.minutes_played 17

L. Costa Independ. Rivadavia football.player.minutes_played 97

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.19 Fonbet · line only

X 5.30 Fonbet · line only

1 4.27 market consensus · line only

Double chance

12 1.13 Fonbet · line only

1X 4.20 Fonbet · line only

X2 1.01 Fonbet · line only

Handicap

2 -1 1.01 Fonbet · line only

2 +1 1.50 Fonbet · line only

2 0 1.01 Fonbet · line only

1 +1 2.45 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.22 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 3.85 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.80 Fonbet · line only

Yes 1.95 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	4.50 22.2%	4.37 22.9%	4.00 25.0%	4.00 25.0%	4.65 21.5%	4.33 23.1%
X	2.96 33.8%	3.04 32.9%	2.80 35.7%	3.10 32.3%	3.05 32.8%	2.90 34.5%
	1.96 51.0%	2.07 48.3%	2.00 50.0%	2.05 48.8%	2.07 48.3%	1.95 51.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Superbet
no	1.50 66.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.44 69.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.47 68.0%	1.51 66.2%	1.49 67.1%
yes	2.40 41.7%	2.35 42.6%	2.45 40.8%	2.62 38.2%	2.40 41.7%	2.45 40.8%	2.45 40.8%	2.35 42.6%	2.50 40.0%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.20 83.3%	1.22 82.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.23 81.3%	1.20 83.3%
home_away	1.33 75.2%	1.39 71.9%	1.40 71.4%	1.33 75.2%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%
home_draw	1.80 55.6%	1.77 56.5%	1.73 57.8%	1.80 55.6%	1.82 55.0%	1.83 54.6%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.14 87.7%	1.08 92.6%
Over 0.75	—	1.11 90.1%
Over 1.0	—	1.15 87.0%
Over 1.25	—	1.40 71.4%
Over 1.5	1.65 60.6%	1.65 60.6%
Over 1.75	—	1.77 56.5%
Over 2.0	—	2.10 47.6%
Over 2.25	—	2.57 38.9%
Over 2.5	3.00 33.3%	—
Over 3.5	6.25 16.0%	—
Over 4.5	11.00 9.1%	—
Under 0.5	5.50 18.2%	—
Under 1.5	2.20 45.5%	—
Under 2.5	1.38 72.5%	—
Under 3.5	1.11 90.1%	—
Under 4.5	1.03 97.1%	—

Match center

Deportivo La Guaira

D L D D

06.05 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Deportivo La Guaira 1:1 Bolívar

30.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Deportivo La Guaira 1:4 Independ. Rivadavia

15.04 00:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Deportivo La Guaira 1:1 Bolívar

07.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Deportivo La Guaira 0:0 Fluminense

0 Wins

3 Draws

1 Losses

0.8 Scored

1.5 Conceded

3 Points

Independ. Rivadavia

D W W W

07.05 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Independ. Rivadavia 1:1 Fluminense

30.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Independ. Rivadavia 4:1 Deportivo La Guaira

16.04 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Independ. Rivadavia 2:1 Fluminense

07.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Independ. Rivadavia 1:0 Bolívar

3 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

2.0 Scored

0.8 Conceded

10 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyDeportivo La Guaira - Independ. Rivadavia

Deportivo La Guaira

1 matches total

Independ. Rivadavia

Deportivo La Guaira: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Independ. Rivadavia: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Independ. Rivadavia 1:4 (30.04 22:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 5 goals (1:4, 30.04 22:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 4

4 Goals conceded 1

Match history

30.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Deportivo La Guaira

1:4

Independ. Rivadavia

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Deportivo La Guaira

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Independ. Rivadavia

4 Games 4

0 Wins 3

3 Draws 1

1 Losses 0

3 Scored 8

6 Conceded 3

3 Points 10

0 Attacks 0

0 Dangerous attacks 0

0 Big chances 0

0 Shots on goal 15

2.75 Shots on target 4

.25 Sendoffs 0 Goly Aleks Arche Sebastyan Vilya 0:1 20' Diego Osio Gilermo Ortis 1 29' Sebastyan Vilya Matias Fernandez 1:2 34' Aleks Arche 1:3 60' Aleks Arche Matias Fernandez 1:4 76' Juan Castellanos 2:4 80' Nakazaniya Yackson Rivas 44' Lusiano Gomes 44' Gilermo Ortis 61' Khose Florentin 79' Juan Perdomo 90+7'

La-Guayra Independente Rivadaviya 4 Games 4 0 Wins 3 Draws 1 Losses 0 3 Scored 8 6 Conceded 3 Points 10 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 15 2.75 Udary v stvor 4 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 3.25 Uglovye 4 1.75 Offsaydy 2.25 12.25 Foly 11.5 39.5 % vladeniya myachom 36.75 2 Warnings 2 0.25 Sendoffs 0 Goly Aleks Arche Sebastyan Vilya 0:1 20' Diego Osio Gilermo Ortis 1 29' Sebastyan Vilya Matias Fernandez 1:2 34' Aleks Arche 1:3 60' Aleks Arche Matias Fernandez 1:4 76' Juan Castellanos 2:4 80' Nakazaniya Yackson Rivas 44' Lusiano Gomes 44' Gilermo Ortis 61' Khose Florentin 79' Juan Perdomo 90+7'