Match center
Start
14.04.2026 22:00 UTC
Sign in to unlock the full prediction
Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
14.04.2026 22:00 UTC
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Estudiantes L.P. - Cusco
2
:
1
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Estudiantes L.P. - Cusco April 14, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Estudiantes L.P..
Line favourite market consensus: Estudiantes L.P.. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.17 / X 6.65 / 2 18.19
- 1X2 market: Estudiantes L.P. 80.4% / X 14.3% / Cusco 5.4%
- Glicko: Estudiantes L.P. - / X 100.0% / Cusco -
- Total 2.5: over probability 54.4%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.0%
1
80.6%
X
14.2%
2
5.2%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.5%
Over 2.5
53.5%
Under 2.5
46.5%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
4/7
Confidence
78.9%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
1:0
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
Buy the full AI analysis
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Match center
Estudiantes L.P. - Cusco
Estudiantes L.P.: Win 1.18 Estudiantes L.P.: Draw 7.00 Cusco Win: 15.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.73 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.08 Individualnyy total golov Estudiantes L.P. bolshe 2.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Estudiantes L.P. menshe 2.5: 1.67 Individu…
Form
5/1
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
2:1
Events
18
Statistics
26
Lineups
44
min
Event
Player
Team
28'
28' Normal Goal | Facundo Farías
Estudiantes L.P.
30'
30' Yellow Card | Ezequiel Piovi
Joël Monteiro
Estudiantes L.P.
31'
31' Normal Goal
Cusco
44'
44' Yellow Card | Lucas Colitto
Cusco
48'
48' Normal Goal | Tiago Palacios
Estudiantes L.P.
51'
51' Yellow Card | Lucas Colitto
Cusco
51'
51' Red Card | Lucas Colitto
Cusco
53'
53' Substitution 1 | Gabriel Carabajal | assist/sub out: Nicolás Silva
I. Ivušić
Cusco
Metric
Estudiantes L.P.
Cusco
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
1.48
0.79
final
Zablokirovannye udary
5
0
final
Shots off target
11
3
final
Shots on target
9
2
final
Udary vsego
25
5
final
Fouls soversheno
9
8
final
Red cards
0
1
final
Zheltye kartochki
2
3
final
Estudiantes L.P.
#9 G. Carrillo, #10 T. Palacios, #11 F. Farias, #13 G. Benedetti, #14 L. Gonzalez Pirez, #16 F. Muslera, #18 E. Cetre, #20 E. Meza, #21 L. Piovi, #24 T. Palacios, #32 M. Amondarain
Cusco
#6 Á. Ampuero, #8 A. Fuentes, #9 Facundo Callejo, #15 J. Bolívar, #16 O. Valenzuela, #24 M. Ruidías, #27 G. Carabajal, #28 P. Díaz, #77 Joel Herrera, #88 D. Soto
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
José Alí Gutiérrez
football.player.assists
0
José Alí Gutiérrez
Dribling popytki
1
José Alí Gutiérrez
Edinoborstva vyigrano
3
José Alí Gutiérrez
Seyvy
0
José Alí Gutiérrez
football.player.minutes_played
25
José Alí Gutiérrez
Klyuchevye pasy
9
José Alí Gutiérrez
Reyting (staryy)
6.5
José Alí Gutiérrez
Shots on target
1
José Alí Gutiérrez
Otbory vsego
8
A. Castro
Estudiantes L.P.
football.player.assists
0
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Estudiantes L.P.
82.5%
-
market favourite
Draw
13.0%
100.0%
draw risk
Cusco
4.5%
-
Total 2.5
Over 54.4%
-
Under 45.6%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.87
Favourite-trap risk
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.87
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
X
6.68
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.17
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
4.89
market consensus · line only
12
1.10
market consensus · line only
1X
1.02
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
4.59
market consensus · line only
2 -1
3.73
market consensus · line only
1 -0.5
1.20
market consensus · line only
1 -1
1.26
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.77
market consensus · no value · model 54.4%
Under 2.5
2.04
market consensus · no value · model 45.6%
Both teams to score
No
1.37
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.89
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 1.18 84.8% | |
| X | 7.00 14.3% |
| 15.00 6.7% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.17 85.5% | 1.21 82.6% | 1.15 87.0% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.15 87.0% | |
| X | 6.20 16.1% | 5.40 18.5% | 7.55 13.3% | 7.00 14.3% | 7.00 14.3% | 6.50 15.4% |
| 19.00 5.3% | 11.50 8.7% | 23.00 4.4% | 15.00 6.7% | 20.00 5.0% | 19.00 5.3% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.35 74.1% | 1.41 70.9% | 1.32 75.8% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.37 73.0% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.31 76.3% | 1.43 69.9% |
| yes | 2.95 33.9% | 2.83 35.3% | 3.08 32.5% | 3.00 33.3% | 2.92 34.3% | 2.75 36.4% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.08 32.5% | 2.60 38.5% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 4.75 21.1% | 5.55 18.0% | 4.50 22.2% | 5.00 20.0% | 5.00 20.0% | 5.20 19.2% |
| home_away | 1.10 90.9% | 1.09 91.7% | 1.10 90.9% | 1.11 90.1% | 1.10 90.9% | 1.08 92.6% |
| home_draw | 1.02 98.0% | 1.01 99.0% | 1.03 97.1% | 1.03 97.1% | 1.03 97.1% | 1.00 100.0% |
Match center
Estudiantes L.P.
Founded
1905
Cusco
Founded
2008
Match center
Estudiantes L.P.
D
W
L
D
W
Estudiantes L.P.
1:1
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
Estudiantes L.P.
1:0
Flamengo
Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
1:2
Flamengo
Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
0:0
Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno
Estudiantes L.P.
1:0
Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno
2
Wins
2
Draws
1
Losses
0.8
Scored
0.6
Conceded
8
Points
Cusco
L
Cusco
0:2
Flamengo
Flamengo
0
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
0.0
Scored
2.0
Conceded
0
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyEstudiantes L.P. - Cusco
Estudiantes L.P.
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
Unlock the full match prediction
The Estudiantes L.P. - Cusco breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form