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CONMEBOL Libertadores
CONMEBOL Libertadores World
17.04.2026 00:30 UTC Match prediction
17.04.2026 00:30 UTC
Finished

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Flamengo - Independiente Medellin

World Football
Stadium Marakana
Flamengo
Flamengo
4 : 1
Finished
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Flamengo - Independiente Medellin April 17, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Flamengo.

Line favourite market consensus: Flamengo. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.19 / X 6.66 / 2 14.12
  • 1X2 market: Flamengo 79.0% / X 14.2% / Independiente Medellin 6.8%
  • Glicko: Flamengo - / X 100.0% / Independiente Medellin -
  • Total 2.5: over probability 69.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.1%
1 79.2%
X 14.1%
2 6.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 7.3%
Over 2.5 60.5%
Under 2.5 39.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 3/4
Confidence 66.7%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:2

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 17.04.2026 00:30 UTC
Stadium Marakana (Rio-de-Zhaneyro)

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Match center

Flamengo - Independiente Medellin

Flamengo: Win 1.20 Flamengo: Draw 6.25 Independiente Medellin Win: 15.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.60 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.30 Individualnyy total golov Flamengo bolshe 2.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Flamengo menshe 2.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total go…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 4:1
Events 20
Statistics 24
Lineups 41
min Event Player Team
15' 15' Normal Goal | Lucas Paquetá | assist/sub out: Ayrton Lucas Mohamed Kaba Flamengo
40' 40' Normal Goal | Yony Gonzalez C. Cabellos Independiente Medellin
45' 45' Normal Goal | Bruno Henrique | assist/sub out: Giorgian De Arrascaeta Fabricio Formiliano Flamengo
48' 48' Yellow Card | Baldomero Perlaza Aziz Dougaz Independiente Medellin
49' 49' Normal Goal | Giorgian De Arrascaeta | assist/sub out: Bruno Henrique Jan Urbich Flamengo
63' 63' Substitution 1 | Giorgian De Arrascaeta | assist/sub out: Gonzalo Plata Jan Urbich Flamengo
63' 63' Substitution 2 | Samuel Lino | assist/sub out: Luiz Araújo Flamengo
64' 64' Goal Disallowed - offside | Leo Pereira Juan Portilla Flamengo
Metric Flamengo Independiente Medellin SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.92 0.3 final
Zablokirovannye udary 6 0 final
Shots off target 8 7 final
Shots on target 10 1 final
Udary vsego 24 8 final
Fouls soversheno 6 15 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 3 final
Offsides 3 1 final
Flamengo #1 A. Rossi, #4 Léo Pereira, #6 Ayrton Lucas, #10 G. de Arrascaeta, #13 Danilo, #15 J. Carrascal, #16 Samuel Lino, #20 Lucas Paqueta, #22 Emerson Royal, #52 Evertton Araujo
Independiente Medellin #2 L. Chaverra, #8 A. Serna, #11 Y. GonzGЎlez, #13 F. Chaverra, #14 B. Perlaza, #18 F. Fabra, #19 F. Fydriszewski, #24 J. Ortiz, #25 E. Chaux, #26 E. Mena, #33 D. LondoG±o
Player Team Metric SStats
A. da Silva Ventura Flamengo Seyvy 0
A. Rossi Flamengo football.player.assists 0
A. Rossi Flamengo Seyvy 1
A. Rossi Flamengo football.player.minutes_played 90
A. Rossi Flamengo Klyuchevye pasy 24
A. Rossi Flamengo Reyting (staryy) 6.3
A. Rossi Flamengo Otbory vsego 22
Alex Sandro Flamengo Seyvy 0
Ayrton Lucas Flamengo football.player.assists 1
Ayrton Lucas Flamengo Dribling popytki 8
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Flamengo 78.2% - market favourite
Draw 15.2% 100.0% draw risk
Independiente Medellin 6.6% -
Total 2.5 Over 69.8% - Under 30.2%
Model check - - Difference 0.85
Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.85

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
Rating 1,790 / 1,590 Flamengo / Independiente Medellin
RD 211 / 178 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
X 6.63 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.19 market consensus · line only
2 9.67 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 4.52 market consensus · line only
12 1.10 market consensus · line only
1X 1.03 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.96 market consensus · line only
2 -1 3.38 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.25 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.30 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.54 market consensus · value +7.5% · model 69.8%
Under 2.5 2.36 market consensus · no value · model 30.2%
Both teams to score
No 1.56 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.29 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.20 83.3%
X 6.25 16.0%
13.00 7.7%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.18 84.8% 1.24 80.7% 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5% 1.20 83.3% 1.23 81.3%
X 6.40 15.6% 5.20 19.2% 7.55 13.3% 6.50 15.4% 6.25 16.0% 6.90 14.5%
14.00 7.1% 9.70 10.3% 17.00 5.9% 15.00 6.7% 13.00 7.7% 15.00 6.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.55 64.5% 1.54 64.9% 1.55 64.5% 1.60 62.5% 1.53 65.4% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.53 65.4%
yes 2.30 43.5% 2.43 41.2% 2.31 43.3% 2.20 45.5% 2.38 42.0% 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4% 2.20 45.5% 2.31 43.3%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 4.50 22.2% 5.10 19.6% 4.80 20.8% 4.33 23.1% 4.55 22.0% 4.50 22.2%
home_away 1.10 90.9% 1.09 91.7% 1.10 90.9% 1.12 89.3% 1.11 90.1% 1.10 90.9%
home_draw 1.02 98.0% 1.01 99.0% 1.03 97.1% 1.03 97.1% 1.05 95.2% 1.03 97.1%
Match center
Flamengo
Founded 1895
Independiente Medellin
Founded 1913
Match center
Flamengo
W W D W L
09.04 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Flamengo 2:0 CuscoCusco
29.11 21:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Flamengo 1:0 PalmeirasPalmeiras
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Flamengo 0:0 Racing Club
23.10 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Flamengo 1:0 Racing Club
26.09 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Flamengo 0:1 Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
0.8 Scored
0.2 Conceded
10 Points
Independiente Medellin
D W D D W
09.04 00:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Independiente Medellin 1:1 Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.
13.03 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Independiente Medellin 2:1 Juventud
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Independiente Medellin 1:1 Juventud
25.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Independiente Medellin 0:0 Liverpool Montevideo
18.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Independiente Medellin 2:1 Liverpool Montevideo
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.8 Conceded
9 Points
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.