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CONMEBOL Libertadores
CONMEBOL Libertadores World
16.04.2026 00:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction
16.04.2026 00:30 UTC
Finished

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Fluminense - Independ. Rivadavia

World Football
Stadium Marakana
Fluminense
Fluminense
1 : 2
Finished
Independ. Rivadavia
Independ. Rivadavia

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Fluminense - Independ. Rivadavia April 16, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Fluminense.

Line favourite market consensus: Fluminense. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.64 / X 3.67 / 2 5.50
  • 1X2 market: Fluminense 57.3% / X 25.6% / Independ. Rivadavia 17.2%
  • Glicko: Fluminense - / X 100.0% / Independ. Rivadavia -
  • Total 2.5: over probability 72.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.4%
1 57.3%
X 25.6%
2 17.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.5%
Over 2.5 42.9%
Under 2.5 57.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 4/7
Confidence 69.1%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:2

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 16.04.2026 00:30 UTC
Stadium Marakana (Rio-de-Zhaneyro)

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Match center

Fluminense - Independ. Rivadavia

Fluminense: Win 1.65 Fluminense: Draw 3.70 Independ. Rivadavia Win: 5.75 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.65 Individualnyy total golov Fluminense bolshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov Fluminense menshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy tota…

Form 3/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:2
Events 18
Statistics 24
Lineups 39
min Event Player Team
10' 10' Normal Goal | Guilherme Arana | assist/sub out: Jefferson Savarino C. Ngonge Fluminense
17' 17' Yellow Card | Matías Fernández Independ. Rivadavia
34' 34' Yellow Card | Ezequiel Bonifacio O. Mahoney Independ. Rivadavia
37' 37' Normal Goal | Fabrizio Sartori Independ. Rivadavia
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Hércules | assist/sub out: Facundo Bernal Fluminense
51' 51' Normal Goal | Alex Arce | assist/sub out: Sebastián Villa Independ. Rivadavia
66' 66' Substitution 3 | Samuel Xavier | assist/sub out: Guga JosG© Alfredo Quintero OrdGіG±ez Fluminense
66' 66' Substitution 2 | Samuel Xavier | assist/sub out: Guga JosG© Alfredo Quintero OrdGіG±ez Fluminense
Metric Fluminense Independ. Rivadavia SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.14 1.01 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 0 final
Shots off target 10 3 final
Shots on target 9 4 final
Udary vsego 21 7 final
Fouls soversheno 10 12 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 4 final
Offsides 0 0 final
Fluminense #1 Fábio, #2 Samuel Xavier, #4 Ignacio, #11 Jefferson Savarino, #13 Pello Arana, #17 A. Canobbio, #19 R. Castillo, #22 J. Freytes, #35 Hércules
Independ. Rivadavia #1 N. Bolcato, #2 L. Costa, #5 T. Bottari, #9 A. Arce, #10 M. Fernandez, #14 L. Gomez, #22 S. Villa, #25 J. Florentín, #36 E. Bonifacio, #42 S. Studer, #43 F. Sartori
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Arce Independ. Rivadavia football.player.assists 0
A. Arce Independ. Rivadavia Dribling popytki 6
A. Arce Independ. Rivadavia Dribling uspeshno 1
A. Arce Independ. Rivadavia Edinoborstva vyigrano 16
A. Arce Independ. Rivadavia Fouls na igroke 1
A. Arce Independ. Rivadavia football.player.goals 1
A. Arce Independ. Rivadavia Seyvy 0
A. Arce Independ. Rivadavia football.player.minutes_played 81
A. Arce Independ. Rivadavia Klyuchevye pasy 17
A. Arce Independ. Rivadavia Pasy vsego 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Fluminense 61.5% - market favourite
Draw 25.2% 100.0% draw risk
Independ. Rivadavia 13.3% -
Total 2.5 Over 72.9% - Under 27.1%
Model check - - Difference 0.75
Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.75

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.50 market consensus · line only
X 3.67 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.65 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.20 market consensus · line only
12 1.25 market consensus · line only
1X 1.14 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.21 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.62 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 5.25 market consensus · line only
2 +1 10.00 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.21 market consensus · weak value +61.2% · model 72.9%
Under 2.5 1.66 market consensus · no value · model 27.1%
Both teams to score
No 1.65 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.13 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.70 58.8%
X 3.60 27.8%
5.50 18.2%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.64 61.0% 1.46 68.5% 1.69 59.2% 1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.57 63.7%
X 3.65 27.4% 3.95 25.3% 3.74 26.7% 3.60 27.8% 3.75 26.7% 3.70 27.0%
5.40 18.5% 6.20 16.1% 5.50 18.2% 5.50 18.2% 5.60 17.9% 5.50 18.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.67 59.9% 1.58 63.3% 1.66 60.2% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.64 61.0% 1.58 63.3%
yes 2.10 47.6% 2.34 42.7% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2% 2.15 46.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.20 45.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 2.15 46.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.20 45.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.10 47.6%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 1.15 87.0% 1.16 86.2% 1.12 89.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.13 88.5% 1.15 87.0%
Match center
Fluminense
Founded 1902
Independ. Rivadavia
Founded 1913
Match center
Fluminense
D L W
07.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Fluminense 0:0 Deportivo La GuairaDeportivo La Guaira
25.09 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Fluminense 0:2 Atletico-MG
18.09 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Fluminense 1:0 Atletico-MG
1 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
0.3 Scored
0.7 Conceded
4 Points
Independ. Rivadavia
W
07.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Independ. Rivadavia 1:0 BolívarBolívar
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
3 Points
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.