Match center
Start
07.04.2026 22:00 UTC
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07.04.2026 22:00 UTC
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Independ. Rivadavia - Bolivar
1
:
0
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Independ. Rivadavia - Bolivar April 7, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Independ. Rivadavia.
Line favourite market consensus: Independ. Rivadavia. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.45 / X 4.33 / 2 6.85
- 1X2 market: Independ. Rivadavia 64.5% / X 21.7% / Bolivar 13.8%
- Glicko: Independ. Rivadavia - / X 100.0% / Bolivar -
- Total 2.5: over probability 59.4%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.7%
1
64.7%
X
21.7%
2
13.7%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.5%
Over 2.5
54.2%
Under 2.5
45.8%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
3/4
Confidence
69.0%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:2
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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Match center
Independ. Rivadavia - Bolivar
Independ. Rivadavia: Win 1.44 Independ. Rivadavia: Draw 4.50 Bolívar Win: 7.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.75 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.05 Individualnyy total golov Independ. Rivadavia bolshe 1.5: 1.57 Individualnyy total golov Independ. Rivadavia menshe 1.5: …
Form
0/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:0
Events
13
Statistics
26
Lineups
39
min
Event
Player
Team
1'
1' Own Goal | Carlos Lampe
A. Kemlein
Independ. Rivadavia
22'
22' Yellow Card | Matías Fernández
Independ. Rivadavia
40'
40' Goal Disallowed - offside | Matías Fernández
Independ. Rivadavia
61'
61' Substitution 1 | Brian Oyola | assist/sub out: Patricio Rodríguez
Bolívar
62'
62' Substitution 2 | Christian Alemán | assist/sub out: Carlos Melgar
Bolívar
67'
67' Substitution 1 | Leonard Costa | assist/sub out: Tomas Bottari
Independ. Rivadavia
72'
72' Red Card
Bolívar
74'
74' Substitution 3 | Martín Cauteruccio | assist/sub out: Ervin Vaca
Bolívar
Metric
Independ. Rivadavia
Bolivar
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
1.39
0.39
final
Zablokirovannye udary
1
2
final
Shots off target
7
3
final
Shots on target
4
3
final
Udary vsego
12
8
final
Fouls soversheno
9
7
final
Red cards
0
1
final
Zheltye kartochki
1
0
final
Independ. Rivadavia
#1 N. Bolcato, #2 L. Costa, #9 A. Arce, #10 M. Fernandez, #14 L. Gomez, #22 S. Villa, #25 J. Florentín, #36 E. Bonifacio, #40 I. Villalba, #42 S. Studer, #43 F. Sartori
Bolivar
#1 C. Lampe, #3 X. Arreaga, #4 J. Sagredo, #5 S. Echeverría, #9 M. Cauteruccio, #11 B. Oyola, #14 R. Matheus, #23 L. Justiniano, #77 D. Romero
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
Carlos Sejas
Seyvy
0
Jesús Sagredo
Dribling popytki
6
Jesús Sagredo
Dribling uspeshno
3
Jesús Sagredo
Edinoborstva vsego
1
Jesús Sagredo
Edinoborstva vyigrano
10
Jesús Sagredo
Fouls na igroke
2
Jesús Sagredo
Seyvy
0
Jesús Sagredo
football.player.minutes_played
95
Jesús Sagredo
Klyuchevye pasy
31
Jesús Sagredo
Reyting (staryy)
7
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Independ. Rivadavia
65.8%
-
market favourite
Draw
21.4%
100.0%
draw risk
Bolivar
12.8%
-
Total 2.5
Over 59.4%
-
Under 40.6%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.79
Favourite-trap risk
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.79
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
6.86
market consensus · line only
X
4.34
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.45
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
2.64
market consensus · line only
12
1.19
market consensus · line only
1X
1.10
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
2.66
market consensus · line only
2 -1
2.07
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
6.30
market consensus · line only
1 -0.5
1.46
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.75
market consensus · weak value +4.0% · model 59.4%
Under 2.5
2.07
market consensus · no value · model 40.6%
Both teams to score
No
1.84
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.88
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 1.44 69.4% | |
| X | 4.50 22.2% |
| 7.00 14.3% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.47 68.0% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.47 68.0% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.44 69.4% | |
| X | 4.10 24.4% | 4.25 23.5% | 4.42 22.6% | 4.50 22.2% | 4.50 22.2% | 4.33 23.1% |
| 6.80 14.7% | 5.80 17.2% | 7.31 13.7% | 7.00 14.3% | 7.60 13.2% | 6.50 15.4% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Superbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.90 52.6% | 1.82 55.0% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.88 53.2% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.81 55.3% | 1.88 53.2% |
| yes | 1.80 55.6% | 1.96 51.0% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.85 54.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 2.50 40.0% | 2.72 36.8% | 2.62 38.2% | 2.75 36.4% | 2.70 37.0% | 2.70 37.0% |
| home_away | 1.17 85.5% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.21 82.6% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.13 88.5% |
| home_draw | 1.12 89.3% | 1.09 91.7% | 1.11 90.1% | 1.12 89.3% | 1.10 90.9% | 1.11 90.1% |
Match center
Independ. Rivadavia
Founded
1913
Bolivar
Founded
1925
Match center
Bolivar
W
L
L
L
W
Bolivar
4:0
Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno
Bolivar
0:2
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
Bolivar
1:2
Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal
Bolivar
2:3
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
Bolivar
3:0
Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal
2
Wins
0
Draws
3
Losses
2.0
Scored
1.4
Conceded
6
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyIndepend. Rivadavia - Bolivar
Independ. Rivadavia
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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The Independ. Rivadavia - Bolivar breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form