CONMEBOL Libertadores
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Independ. Rivadavia.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model consensus
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Independente Rivadaviya - La-Guayra, 1 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Cup Libertadores 2026, Group C. 3 round. Independente Rivadaviya - La-Guayra, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 1.36 73.5% | |
| X | 4.75 21.1% |
| 8.50 11.8% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.35 74.1% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.42 70.4% | 1.33 75.2% | |
| X | 4.40 22.7% | 4.76 21.0% | 4.00 25.0% | 4.75 21.1% | 4.60 21.7% | 4.60 21.7% |
| 10.00 10.0% | 9.10 11.0% | 7.00 14.3% | 7.50 13.3% | 9.50 10.5% | 9.50 10.5% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.57 63.7% | 1.58 63.3% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.56 64.1% | 1.58 63.3% |
| yes | 2.25 44.4% | 2.24 44.6% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.24 44.6% | 2.20 45.5% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 3.00 33.3% | 3.08 32.5% | 2.63 38.0% | 2.75 36.4% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.20 31.3% |
| home_away | 1.18 84.8% | 1.19 84.0% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.17 85.5% |
| home_draw | 1.05 95.2% | 1.05 95.2% | 1.08 92.6% | 1.10 90.9% | 1.09 91.7% | 1.06 94.3% |
Independ. Rivadavia
Deportivo La Guaira
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
Bolívar
Deportivo La Guaira
Bolívar
Fluminense
Full head-to-head historyIndepend. Rivadavia - Deportivo La Guaira
Independente Rivadaviya La-Guayra 2 Games 2 Wins 0 Draws 2 0 Losses 0 3 Scored 1 Conceded 1 6 Points 2 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 4 Udary v stvor 1.5 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 3 Uglovye 2.5 2.5 Offsaydy 3 10.5 Foly 10 33 % vladeniya myachom 32 2.5 Warnings 2 0 Sendoffs 0.5 Sleduyuschiy match 22.05.2026 Cup Libertadores — 2026 La-Guayra –:– Independente Rivadaviya Group C. 5 round Goly Aleks Arche Matias Fernandez 1:0 27' Gilermo Ortis Franco Caceres 1 32' Sebastyan Vilya 2:1 45' Aleks Arche Sebastyan Vilya 3:1 45+2' Aleks Arche Khose Florentin 4:1 64' Nakazaniya Ezequiel Bonifacio 47'
The Independ. Rivadavia - Deportivo La Guaira breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
