Match center
Start
07.05.2026 00:30 UTC
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07.05.2026 00:30 UTC
Group C. 4 round
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Independ. Rivadavia - Fluminense
1
:
1
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Independ. Rivadavia - Fluminense May 7, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Independ. Rivadavia.
Line favourite market consensus: Independ. Rivadavia. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.37 / X 3.01 / 2 3.18
- 1X2 market: Independ. Rivadavia 39.5% / X 31.0% / Fluminense 29.5%
- Glicko: Independ. Rivadavia - / X 100.0% / Fluminense -
- Total 2.5: over probability 45.8%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.9%
1
39.5%
X
31.1%
2
29.4%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 6.0%
Over 2.5
41.0%
Under 2.5
59.0%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
Glavnyy konsensus AI: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
5/6
Confidence
66.0%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
1:1
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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Match center
Independ. Rivadavia - Fluminense
Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Independente Rivadaviya - Fluminense, 7 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Cup Libertadores 2026, Group C. 4 round. Independente Rivadaviya - Fluminense, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.
Form
3/5
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
yes
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:1
Events
18
Statistics
22
Lineups
46
min
Event
Player
Team
37'
37' Yellow Card | T. Bottari
T. Bottari
Independ. Rivadavia
38'
38' Yellow Card | Hercules
Hércules
Fluminense
45+1'
45+1' Yellow Card | L. Acosta
Luciano Acosta
Fluminense
63'
63' Yellow Card | J. I. Florentin Bobadilla
J. Florentín
Independ. Rivadavia
63'
63' Yellow Card | Nonato
Nonato
Fluminense
66'
66' Normal Goal | A. Arce
A. Arce
Independ. Rivadavia
69'
69' Yellow Card | Guga
Guga
Fluminense
78'
78' Substitution 1 | Nonato | assist/sub out: Alisson
Nonato
Fluminense
Metric
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
1.34
0.75
final
Zablokirovannye udary
4
2
final
Shots off target
8
7
final
Shots on target
3
2
final
Udary vsego
15
11
final
Fouls soversheno
13
14
final
Zheltye kartochki
2
4
final
Offsides
3
0
final
Independ. Rivadavia
#1 N. Bolcato, #9 A. Arce, #14 L. Gomez, #22 S. Villa, #25 J. Florentín, #5 T. Bottari, #42 S. Studer, #43 F. Sartori, #2 L. Costa, #10 M. Fernandez, #36 E. Bonifacio
Fluminense
#1 Fábio, #11 Jefferson Savarino, #13 Pello Arana, #19 R. Castillo, #35 Hércules, #16 Nonato, #22 J. Freytes, #32 Luciano Acosta, #4 Ignacio, #17 A. Canobbio, #23 Guga
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
A. Arce
Independ. Rivadavia
football.player.assists
0
A. Arce
Independ. Rivadavia
football.player.goals
1
A. Arce
Independ. Rivadavia
football.player.minutes_played
79
A. Osella
Independ. Rivadavia
football.player.assists
0
A. Osella
Independ. Rivadavia
football.player.minutes_played
8
E. Bonifacio
Independ. Rivadavia
football.player.assists
0
E. Bonifacio
Independ. Rivadavia
football.player.minutes_played
82
F. Sartori
Independ. Rivadavia
football.player.assists
0
F. Sartori
Independ. Rivadavia
football.player.minutes_played
86
G. Rios
Independ. Rivadavia
football.player.assists
0
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Independ. Rivadavia
39.9%
-
market favourite
Draw
30.9%
100.0%
draw risk
Fluminense
29.1%
-
Total 2.5
Over 45.8%
-
Under 54.2%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.69
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.69
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.22
market consensus · line only
X
1.04
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.58
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.54
market consensus · line only
12
1.34
market consensus · line only
1X
1.34
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.58
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.23
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
2.90
market consensus · line only
2 +1
6.09
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.30
market consensus · weak value +5.3% · model 45.8%
Under 2.5
1.60
market consensus · no value · model 54.2%
Both teams to score
No
1.78
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.93
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.38 42.0% | 2.43 41.2% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.35 42.6% | 2.45 40.8% | 2.30 43.5% | |
| X | 3.00 33.3% | 3.14 31.9% | 2.90 34.5% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.05 32.8% | 2.90 34.5% |
| 3.15 31.8% | 3.22 31.1% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.15 31.8% | 3.25 30.8% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.80 55.6% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.78 56.2% | 1.79 55.9% |
| yes | 1.90 52.6% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.95 51.3% | 2.00 50.0% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.90 52.6% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.55 64.5% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.53 65.4% |
| home_away | 1.30 76.9% | 1.37 73.0% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.35 74.1% | 1.33 75.2% |
| home_draw | 1.35 74.1% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.36 73.5% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.09 91.7% | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 0.75 | — | 1.04 96.2% |
| Over 1.0 | — | 1.07 93.5% |
| Over 1.25 | — | 1.22 82.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.42 70.4% | 1.36 73.5% |
| Over 1.75 | — | 1.49 67.1% |
| Over 2.0 | — | 1.66 60.2% |
| Over 2.25 | — | 2.03 49.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.25 44.4% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 4.20 23.8% | — |
| Over 4.5 | 8.50 11.8% | — |
| Under 0.5 | 7.00 14.3% | — |
| Under 1.5 | 2.80 35.7% | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.62 61.7% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.22 82.0% | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.06 94.3% | — |
Match center
Independ. Rivadavia
Founded
1913
Fluminense
Founded
1902
Match center
Independ. Rivadavia
W
W
W
Independ. Rivadavia
4:1
Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira
Independ. Rivadavia
2:1
Fluminense
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1:0
Bolívar
Bolívar
3
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
2.3
Scored
0.7
Conceded
9
Points
Fluminense
L
L
D
L
W
Fluminense
0:2
Bolívar
Bolívar
Fluminense
1:2
Independ. Rivadavia
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
0:0
Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira
Fluminense
0:2
Atletico-MG
Fluminense
1:0
Atletico-MG
1
Wins
1
Draws
3
Losses
0.4
Scored
1.2
Conceded
4
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyIndepend. Rivadavia - Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
matches total
Independ. Rivadavia: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Fluminense: 0 (0%)
Biggest win
Independ. Rivadavia 2:1 (16.04 00:30 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
3 goals (2:1, 16.04 00:30 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Independ. Rivadavia
2:1
Fluminense
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1
Independ. Rivadavia
Team 2
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
Team comparison
Fluminense
3
Games
3
3
Wins
0
0
Draws
1
0
Losses
2
7
Scored
1
2
Conceded
4
9
Points
1
0
Attacks
0
0
Dangerous attacks
0
0
Big chances
0
0
Shots on goal
0
4.33
Shots on target
5.67
Independente Rivadaviya Fluminense 3 Games 3 Wins 0 Draws 1 0 Losses 2 7 Scored 1 2 Conceded 4 9 Points 1 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 4.33 Udary v stvor 5.67 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 3.33 Uglovye 3.33 2 Offsaydy 0.33 11 Foly 9.67 40 % vladeniya myachom 61 2 Warnings 1 0 Sendoffs 0.33 Goly Aleks Arche Lusiano Gomes 1:0 66' Dzhon Kennedi 1 90+1' Nakazaniya Tomas Bottari 37' Erkules Pereyra du Nasimentu 38' Lusiano Akosta 45+1' Khose Florentin 53' Nonato 53' Guga 59'
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