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CONMEBOL Libertadores World

16.04.2026 02:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction

16.04.2026 02:00 UTC

Finished

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Independiente del Valle - UCV

World Football

Independiente del Valle

3 : 1

Finished

UCV

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Independiente del Valle - UCV April 16, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Independiente del Valle.

Line favourite market consensus: Independiente del Valle. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.31 / X 5.22 / 2 9.28
1X2 market: Independiente del Valle 71.8% / X 18.1% / UCV 10.2%
Glicko: Independiente del Valle - / X 100.0% / UCV -
Total 2.5: over probability 56.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.3%

1 71.8%

X 18.0%

2 10.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.7%

Over 2.5 57.4%

Under 2.5 42.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X

Agreement 4/8

Confidence 69.9%

Total Under 2.5

Score 2:0

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 16.04.2026 02:00 UTC

Match center

Independiente del Valle - UCV

Independiente del Valle: Win 1.33 Independiente del Valle: Draw 5.25 UCV Win: 10.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.60 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.30 Individualnyy total golov Independiente del Valle bolshe 2.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Independiente del Valle…

Form 5/3 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:1

Events 19

Statistics 26

Lineups 36

min Event Player Team

21' 21' Normal Goal | Jovanny Bolívar UCV

37' 37' Yellow Card | Juan Manuel Cuesta Aryan Karnani UCV

44' 44' Normal Goal | Jordy Alcivar Ulyana Hrabavets Independiente del Valle

45+2' 45+2' Yellow Card | Alfonso Simarra UCV

45+5' 45+5' Missed Penalty | Carlos Gonzalez | assist/sub out: Carlos Gonzalez E. Baum Independiente del Valle

45+5' 45+5' Normal Goal | Carlos Gonzalez E. Baum Independiente del Valle

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Samuel Sosa | assist/sub out: Vicente Rodríguez D. Čavić UCV

63' 63' Normal Goal | Carlos Gonzalez E. Baum Independiente del Valle

Metric Independiente del Valle UCV SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 3.54 1.53 final

Zablokirovannye udary 6 2 final

Shots off target 14 9 final

Shots on target 13 3 final

Udary vsego 33 14 final

Fouls soversheno 5 5 final

Red cards 1 0 final

Zheltye kartochki 0 3 final

Independiente del Valle #1 A. Quintana, #6 J. Alcívar, #11 M. Perelló, #13 Daykol Romero, #14 M. Carabajal, #16 Ronald Briones, #17 A. Rodríguez, #19 L. Loor, #23 J. Viacava

UCV #2 K. Silva, #6 F. Solé, #7 J. Cuesta, #8 J. Zapata, #10 S. Sosa, #11 J. Bolívar, #13 G. Schiavone, #19 A. Simarra, #27 D. Carrillo, #30 A. González

Player Team Metric SStats

Adrián Martínez football.player.assists 0

Adrián Martínez Dribling popytki 6

Adrián Martínez Edinoborstva vsego 1

Adrián Martínez Edinoborstva vyigrano 9

Adrián Martínez Seyvy 0

Adrián Martínez football.player.minutes_played 90

Adrián Martínez Klyuchevye pasy 19

Adrián Martínez Reyting (staryy) 6.6

Adrián Martínez Bloki 1

Adrián Martínez Otbory vsego 13

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Independiente del Valle 79.7% - market favourite

Draw 14.1% 100.0% draw risk

UCV 6.2% -

Total 2.5 Over 56.6% - Under 43.4%

Model check - - Difference 0.86

Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.86

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 9.02 market consensus · line only

X 5.22 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.31 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 3.30 market consensus · line only

12 1.14 market consensus · line only

1X 1.06 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 3.36 market consensus · line only

2 -1 2.57 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.32 market consensus · line only

1 -1 1.46 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.65 market consensus · no value · model 56.6%

Under 2.5 2.22 market consensus · no value · model 43.4%

Both teams to score

No 1.73 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.02 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.33 75.2%
X	5.25 19.1%
	9.00 11.1%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.32 75.8%	1.19 84.0%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.36 73.5%	1.25 80.0%
X	4.90 20.4%	5.90 17.0%	5.38 18.6%	5.25 19.1%	5.30 18.9%	5.50 18.2%
	9.00 11.1%	11.00 9.1%	9.60 10.4%	9.00 11.1%	10.00 10.0%	10.50 9.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.77 56.5%	1.58 63.3%	1.74 57.5%	1.75 57.1%	1.78 56.2%	1.73 57.8%	1.75 57.1%	1.72 58.1%	1.67 59.9%
yes	1.95 51.3%	2.35 42.6%	1.98 50.5%	2.00 50.0%	1.95 51.3%	2.10 47.6%	1.95 51.3%	1.98 50.5%	2.05 48.8%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
draw_away	3.25 30.8%	3.38 29.6%	3.25 30.8%	3.35 29.9%	3.60 27.8%	3.25 30.8%
home_away	1.17 85.5%	1.16 86.2%	1.17 85.5%	1.17 85.5%	1.14 87.7%	1.07 93.5%
home_draw	1.05 95.2%	1.04 96.2%	1.07 93.5%	1.08 92.6%	1.05 95.2%	1.08 92.6%

Match center

Independiente del Valle

Founded 1958

UCV

Founded 1950

Match center

Independiente del Valle

D W L D D

09.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Independiente del Valle 0:0 Rosario Central

28.05 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Independiente del Valle 2:1 Barcelona SC

16.05 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Independiente del Valle 2:6 River Plate

09.05 02:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Independiente del Valle 1:1 Universitario

24.04 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Independiente del Valle 2:2 River Plate

1 Wins

3 Draws

1 Losses

1.4 Scored

2.0 Conceded

6 Points

UCV

W L D

09.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

UCV 3:1 Libertad Asuncion

27.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

UCV 2:3 Corinthians

20.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

UCV 1:1 Corinthians

1 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

2.0 Scored

1.7 Conceded

4 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyIndependiente del Valle - UCV

Independiente del Valle

0 matches total

UCV

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.