Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.

CONMEBOL Libertadores World

09.04.2026 00:00 UTC Match prediction

09.04.2026 00:00 UTC

Finished

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Independiente Medellin - Estudiantes L.P.

World Football

Independiente Medellin

1 : 1

Finished

Estudiantes L.P.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Independiente Medellin - Estudiantes L.P. April 9, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Independiente Medellin.

Line favourite market consensus: Independiente Medellin. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.60 / X 2.96 / 2 2.90
1X2 market: Independiente Medellin 36.1% / X 31.6% / Estudiantes L.P. 32.3%
Glicko: Independiente Medellin - / X 100.0% / Estudiantes L.P. -
Total 2.5: over probability 50.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.7%

1 36.0%

X 31.7%

2 32.3%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.9%

Over 2.5 36.6%

Under 2.5 63.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 62.6%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center

Start 09.04.2026 00:00 UTC

Match center

Independiente Medellin - Estudiantes L.P.

Independiente Medellin: Win 2.75 Independiente Medellin: Draw 3.00 Estudiantes L.P. Win: 2.88 Obschiy total golov bolshe 1.5: 1.50 Obschiy total golov menshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Independiente Medellin bolshe 0.5: 1.40 Individualnyy total golov Independiente …

Form 4/5 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:1

Events 7

Statistics 24

Lineups 44

min Event Player Team

4' 4' Normal Goal | Tiago Palacios Estudiantes L.P.

24' 24' Yellow Card | John Edwin MontaG±o Independiente Medellin

24' 24' Yellow Card | Ezequiel Piovi Joël Monteiro Estudiantes L.P.

36' 36' Yellow Card | Tomás Palacios Estudiantes L.P.

37' 37' Yellow Card | Daniel LondoG±o Independiente Medellin

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Esneyder Mena | assist/sub out: Daniel CataG±o Independiente Medellin

48' 48' Yellow Card Estudiantes L.P.

Metric Independiente Medellin Estudiantes L.P. SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.59 0.37 final

Zablokirovannye udary 1 2 final

Shots off target 6 4 final

Shots on target 5 4 final

Udary vsego 12 10 final

Fouls soversheno 13 16 final

Zheltye kartochki 2 5 final

Offsides 1 1 final

Independiente Medellin #9 G. Carrillo, #10 T. Palacios, #11 F. Farias, #13 G. Benedetti, #14 L. Gonzalez Pirez, #16 F. Muslera, #18 E. Cetre, #20 E. Meza, #21 L. Piovi, #24 T. Palacios, #32 M. Amondarain

Estudiantes L.P. #2 L. Chaverra, #8 A. Serna, #13 F. Chaverra, #14 B. Perlaza, #18 F. Fabra, #19 F. Fydriszewski, #20 J. MontaG±o, #24 J. Ortiz, #25 E. Chaux, #26 E. Mena, #33 D. LondoG±o

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Serna Estudiantes L.P. football.player.assists 0

A. Serna Estudiantes L.P. Dribling popytki 7

A. Serna Estudiantes L.P. Dribling uspeshno 1

A. Serna Estudiantes L.P. Edinoborstva vsego 1

A. Serna Estudiantes L.P. Edinoborstva vyigrano 12

A. Serna Estudiantes L.P. Fouls soversheno 3

A. Serna Estudiantes L.P. Fouls na igroke 1

A. Serna Estudiantes L.P. Seyvy 0

A. Serna Estudiantes L.P. football.player.minutes_played 90

A. Serna Estudiantes L.P. Klyuchevye pasy 52

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Independiente Medellin 35.9% - market favourite

Draw 31.8% 100.0% draw risk

Estudiantes L.P. 32.3% -

Total 2.5 Over 50.7% - Under 49.3%

Model check - - Difference 0.68

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.68

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.90 market consensus · line only

X 2.97 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.60 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.46 market consensus · line only

12 1.36 market consensus · line only

1X 1.38 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.49 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.16 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.88 market consensus · line only

2 +1 5.66 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.58 market consensus · value +30.7% · model 50.7%

Under 2.5 1.49 market consensus · no value · model 49.3%

Both teams to score

No 1.67 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.08 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	2.62 38.2%
X	3.00 33.3%
	2.90 34.5%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	2.56 39.1%	2.44 41.0%	2.70 37.0%	2.62 38.2%	2.65 37.7%	2.55 39.2%
X	3.00 33.3%	3.05 32.8%	2.94 34.0%	3.00 33.3%	3.05 32.8%	3.00 33.3%
	2.88 34.7%	2.75 36.4%	3.02 33.1%	2.90 34.5%	2.92 34.3%	2.88 34.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.65 60.6%	1.68 59.5%	1.68 59.5%	1.67 59.9%	1.72 58.1%	1.65 60.6%	1.65 60.6%	1.66 60.2%	1.67 59.9%
yes	2.10 47.6%	2.16 46.3%	2.06 48.5%	2.10 47.6%	2.05 48.8%	2.10 47.6%	2.10 47.6%	2.06 48.5%	2.05 48.8%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
draw_away	1.48 67.6%	1.48 67.6%	1.40 71.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.44 69.4%
home_away	1.30 76.9%	1.41 70.9%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%
home_draw	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.36 73.5%

Match center

Independiente Medellin

Founded 1913

Estudiantes L.P.

Founded 1905

Match center

Independiente Medellin

W D D W

13.03 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Independiente Medellin 2:1 Juventud

06.03 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Independiente Medellin 1:1 Juventud

25.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Independiente Medellin 0:0 Liverpool Montevideo

18.02 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Independiente Medellin 2:1 Liverpool Montevideo

2 Wins

2 Draws

0 Losses

1.3 Scored

0.8 Conceded

8 Points

Estudiantes L.P.

W L D W W

26.09 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Estudiantes L.P. 1:0 Flamengo

19.09 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Estudiantes L.P. 1:2 Flamengo

20.08 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Estudiantes L.P. 0:0 Cerro Porteno

13.08 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Estudiantes L.P. 1:0 Cerro Porteno

28.05 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores

Estudiantes L.P. 2:0 Carabobo FC

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.0 Scored

0.4 Conceded

10 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyIndependiente Medellin - Estudiantes L.P.

Independiente Medellin

0 matches total

Estudiantes L.P.

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????±? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????»? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????µ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ????? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.