Match center
Start
08.05.2026 02:00 UTC
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08.05.2026 02:00 UTC
Group F. 4 round
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Junior - Cerro Porteno
0
:
1
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Junior — 40%
Model estimate: win Junior 40.3%, draw 28.3%, win Cerro Porteno 31.5%. Model favourite — Junior.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Junior - Cerro Porteno May 8, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Junior.
Strongest: Junior - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.98 / X 3.23 / 2 3.97
- 1X2 market: Junior 47.3% / X 29.1% / Cerro Porteno 23.6%
- Glicko: Junior 40.3% / X 28.3% / Cerro Porteno 31.5%
- Total 2.5: over probability 78.3%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.7%
1
47.4%
X
29.0%
2
23.6%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 6.0%
Over 2.5
40.7%
Under 2.5
59.3%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 1
Main outcome
Agreement
3/4
Confidence
44.7%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:1
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Junior 40%
💹 Market
Junior 4731%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Junior - Cerro Porteno
Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Khunior - Serro Porteno, 8 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Cup Libertadores 2026, Group F. 4 round. Khunior - Serro Porteno, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.
Form
3/5
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
yes
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
0:1
Events
14
Statistics
22
Lineups
46
min
Event
Player
Team
13'
13' Normal Goal
Cerro Porteno
45+3'
45+3' Yellow Card | A. Martin
A. Martin
Cerro Porteno
60'
60' Substitution 1 | Guillermo Paiva | assist/sub out: Carlos Bacca
G. Paiva
Junior
62'
62' Yellow Card | G. Velazquez
G. Velázquez
Cerro Porteno
63'
63' Substitution 1 | C. Bobadilla | assist/sub out: R. Gomez
C. Bobadilla
Cerro Porteno
63'
63' Substitution 2 | A. Sonora | assist/sub out: M. Klimowicz
A. Sonora
Cerro Porteno
63'
63' Yellow Card | Jhonier Guerrero
J. Guerrero
Junior
67'
67' Substitution 2 | Jhonier Guerrero | assist/sub out: Edwin Herrera
J. Guerrero
Junior
Metric
Junior
Cerro Porteno
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
1.08
0.52
final
Zablokirovannye udary
3
7
final
Shots off target
11
2
final
Shots on target
2
3
final
Udary vsego
16
12
final
Fouls soversheno
13
10
final
Zheltye kartochki
2
2
final
Offsides
3
2
final
Junior
#1 M. Silveira, #10 L. Muriel, #14 J. Rios, #26 Y. Suarez, #29 T. Gutierrez, #9 G. Paiva, #22 J. Rivas, #33 L. Monzon, #21 J. Canchimbo, #24 J. Pestana, #34 J. Guerrero
Cerro Porteno
#1 A. Martin, #5 J. Morel, #27 J. Torres, #35 M. Chaparro, #19 P. Vegetti, #22 M. Perez, #26 R. Piris, #7 A. Sonora, #23 G. Velázquez, #32 C. Bobadilla, #2 F. Dominguez
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
A. Martin
Cerro Porteno
football.player.minutes_played
98
A. Sonora
Cerro Porteno
football.player.minutes_played
63
C. Bobadilla
Cerro Porteno
football.player.minutes_played
63
F. Dominguez
Cerro Porteno
football.player.minutes_played
80
F. Peralta
Cerro Porteno
football.player.minutes_played
18
G. Velázquez
Cerro Porteno
football.player.minutes_played
98
J. Iturbe
Cerro Porteno
football.player.minutes_played
17
J. Morel
Cerro Porteno
football.player.minutes_played
98
J. Torres
Cerro Porteno
football.player.minutes_played
81
M. Chaparro
Cerro Porteno
football.player.minutes_played
98
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Junior
46.2%
40.3%
market and model agree
Draw
29.3%
28.3%
draw risk
Cerro Porteno
24.5%
31.5%
xG
-
1.24 : 1.06
Total 2.5
Over 78.3%
-
Under 21.7%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.07
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.07
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
40.3% / 28.3% / 31.5%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,488 / 1,628
Junior / Cerro Porteno
RD
179 / 172
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.20
Fonbet · no value · model 31.5%
X
4.40
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.00
market consensus · no value · model 40.3%
Double chance
X2
1.79
market consensus · value +6.9% · model 59.7%
12
1.31
market consensus · no value · model 71.8%
1X
1.23
market consensus · no value · model 68.6%
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.84
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.38
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
3.93
market consensus · line only
2 +1
7.50
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.32
market consensus · weak value +81.6% · model 78.3%
Under 2.5
1.59
market consensus · no value · model 21.7%
Both teams to score
No
1.72
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.02
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.90 52.6% | 2.03 49.3% | 1.95 51.3% | 2.00 50.0% | 1.98 50.5% | 1.95 51.3% | |
| X | 3.35 29.9% | 3.34 29.9% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.25 30.8% |
| 4.00 25.0% | 4.01 24.9% | 3.90 25.6% | 4.00 25.0% | 4.15 24.1% | 3.90 25.6% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.73 57.8% | 1.72 58.1% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.72 58.1% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.75 57.1% |
| yes | 2.00 50.0% | 2.01 49.8% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.01 49.8% | 1.94 51.6% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.85 54.1% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.73 57.8% |
| home_away | 1.25 80.0% | 1.34 74.6% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.32 75.8% | 1.33 75.2% |
| home_draw | 1.22 82.0% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.26 79.4% | 1.25 80.0% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.07 93.5% | 1.04 96.2% |
| Over 0.75 | — | 1.06 94.3% |
| Over 1.0 | — | 1.08 92.6% |
| Over 1.25 | — | 1.24 80.7% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.42 70.4% | 1.39 71.9% |
| Over 1.75 | — | 1.51 66.2% |
| Over 2.0 | — | 1.69 59.2% |
| Over 2.25 | — | 2.06 48.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.25 44.4% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 4.33 23.1% | — |
| Over 4.5 | 8.50 11.8% | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.00 12.5% | — |
| Under 1.5 | 2.85 35.1% | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.62 61.7% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.20 83.3% | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.06 94.3% | — |
Match center
Junior
Founded
1924
Cerro Porteno
Founded
1912
Match center
Junior
L
L
D
Junior
0:2
Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal
Junior
0:1
Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno
Junior
1:1
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
0
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
0.3
Scored
1.3
Conceded
1
Points
Cerro Porteno
D
W
L
D
L
Cerro Porteno
1:1
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
Cerro Porteno
1:0
Junior
Junior
Cerro Porteno
0:1
Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal
Cerro Porteno
0:0
Estudiantes L.P.
Estudiantes L.P.
Cerro Porteno
0:1
Estudiantes L.P.
Estudiantes L.P.
1
Wins
2
Draws
2
Losses
0.4
Scored
0.6
Conceded
5
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyJunior - Cerro Porteno
Junior
1
matches total
Junior: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Cerro Porteno: 1 (100%)
Biggest win
Cerro Porteno 0:1 (14.04 22:00 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
1 goals (0:1, 14.04 22:00 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Junior
0:1
Cerro Porteno
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1
Junior
Team 2
Cerro Porteno
Junior
Team comparison
Cerro Porteno
3
Games
3
0
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
1
1
Scored
2
4
Conceded
2
1
Points
4
0
Attacks
0
0
Dangerous attacks
0
0
Big chances
0
0
Shots on goal
0
2.67
Shots on target
2
Khunior Serro Porteno 3 Games 3 0 Wins 1 Draws 1 2 Losses 1 Scored 2 4 Conceded 2 1 Points 4 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 2.67 Udary v stvor 2 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 2.67 Uglovye 2.67 2.33 Offsaydy 0.67 12.33 Foly 12.33 45.67 % vladeniya myachom 38.67 1.67 Warnings 1.67 0.33 Sendoffs 0.33 Goly Pablo Vekhetti 0:1 13' Nakazaniya Alexis Arias 45+3' Gustavo Velaskes 62' Jhomier Guerrero 63' Khean Pestanya 90'
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