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Start
09.04.2026 00:30 UTC
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09.04.2026 00:30 UTC
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Junior - Palmeiras
1
:
1
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Junior - Palmeiras April 9, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Palmeiras.
Line favourite market consensus: Palmeiras. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.69 / X 3.47 / 2 1.78
- 1X2 market: Junior 20.2% / X 27.1% / Palmeiras 52.7%
- Glicko: Junior - / X 100.0% / Palmeiras -
- Total 2.5: over probability 52.9%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.3%
1
20.1%
X
27.1%
2
52.8%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.7%
Over 2.5
44.0%
Under 2.5
56.0%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
3/4
Confidence
71.4%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:2
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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Match center
Junior - Palmeiras
Junior: Win 5.00 Junior: Draw 3.60 Palmeiras Win: 1.73 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.15 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Junior bolshe 0.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov Junior menshe 0.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov Palmeiras bolshe 1…
Form
0/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:1
Events
16
Statistics
24
Lineups
40
min
Event
Player
Team
10'
10' Penalty | Teófilo Gutiérrez
Mahta Khanloo
Junior
14'
14' Yellow Card
Junior
42'
42' Yellow Card | Teófilo Gutiérrez
Mahta Khanloo
Junior
44'
44' Yellow Card | Arthur Gabriel
Palmeiras
46'
46' Substitution 1 | Mauricio | assist/sub out: Ramón Sosa
Palmeiras
46'
46' Substitution 2 | Mauricio | assist/sub out: Ramón Sosa
Palmeiras
56'
56' Normal Goal
Palmeiras
57'
57' Substitution 1 | Kevin Pérez | assist/sub out: Guillermo Celis
Junior
Metric
Junior
Palmeiras
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
1.16
1.75
final
Zablokirovannye udary
3
9
final
Shots off target
3
8
final
Shots on target
3
5
final
Udary vsego
9
22
final
Fouls soversheno
17
9
final
Zheltye kartochki
3
1
final
Offsides
1
5
final
Junior
#1 Carlos Miguel, #4 A. Giay, #8 Andreas Pereira, #11 J. Arias, #15 G. Gómez, #17 Marlon Freitas, #18 Maurício, #40 Allan, #42 J. López, #56 Arthur Gabriel
Palmeiras
#1 M. Silveira, #5 D. Rivera, #8 Y. Chara, #18 K. Pérez, #22 J. Rivas, #26 Y. Suarez, #33 L. Monzon, #34 J. Guerrero, #98 J. Pena
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
B. Castrillon
Palmeiras
Seyvy
0
C. Bacca
Palmeiras
Seyvy
0
D. Rivera
Palmeiras
Dribling popytki
6
D. Rivera
Palmeiras
Edinoborstva vsego
1
D. Rivera
Palmeiras
Edinoborstva vyigrano
8
D. Rivera
Palmeiras
Fouls soversheno
1
D. Rivera
Palmeiras
Seyvy
0
D. Rivera
Palmeiras
football.player.minutes_played
96
D. Rivera
Palmeiras
Klyuchevye pasy
24
D. Rivera
Palmeiras
Reyting (staryy)
7.7
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Junior
17.7%
-
Draw
27.8%
100.0%
draw risk
Palmeiras
54.4%
-
market favourite
Total 2.5
Over 52.9%
-
Under 47.1%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.72
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.72
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
Rating
1,560 / 1,821
Junior / Palmeiras
RD
258 / 237
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.78
market consensus · line only
X
3.48
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
4.69
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.17
market consensus · line only
12
1.26
market consensus · line only
1X
2.03
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.23
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.03
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
1.75
market consensus · line only
2 +1
2.43
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.15
market consensus · value +13.8% · model 52.9%
Under 2.5
1.69
market consensus · no value · model 47.1%
Both teams to score
No
1.74
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.99
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 4.75 21.1% | |
| X | 3.60 27.8% |
| 1.75 57.1% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.35 23.0% | 3.85 26.0% | 5.03 19.9% | 4.75 21.1% | 4.90 20.4% | 4.60 21.7% | |
| X | 3.35 29.9% | 3.35 29.9% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.70 27.0% | 3.50 28.6% |
| 1.84 54.4% | 1.84 54.4% | 1.77 56.5% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.82 55.0% | 1.75 57.1% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.75 57.1% | 1.74 57.5% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.72 58.1% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.72 58.1% | 1.80 55.6% |
| yes | 1.95 51.3% | 2.05 48.8% | 1.97 50.8% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.05 48.8% | 1.95 51.3% | 2.00 50.0% | 1.98 50.5% | 1.88 53.2% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.20 83.3% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.21 82.6% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.18 84.8% |
| home_away | 1.25 80.0% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.22 82.0% |
| home_draw | 1.91 52.4% | 2.08 48.1% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.07 48.3% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.00 50.0% |
Match center
Junior
Founded
1924
Palmeiras
Founded
1914
Match center
Palmeiras
L
W
L
W
W
Palmeiras
0:1
Flamengo
Flamengo
Palmeiras
4:0
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
Palmeiras
0:3
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
Palmeiras
3:1
River Plate
Palmeiras
2:1
River Plate
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
1.8
Scored
1.2
Conceded
9
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyJunior - Palmeiras
Junior
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form