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Start
28.04.2026 22:00 UTC
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28.04.2026 22:00 UTC
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
Lanus - LDU de Quito
1
:
0
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Lanus - LDU de Quito April 28, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lanus.
Line favourite market consensus: Lanus. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.50 / X 3.78 / 2 7.54
- 1X2 market: Lanus 62.5% / X 24.9% / LDU de Quito 12.6%
- Glicko: Lanus - / X 100.0% / LDU de Quito -
- Total 2.5: over probability 83.9%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.4%
1
62.7%
X
24.9%
2
12.5%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.8%
Over 2.5
39.0%
Under 2.5
61.0%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
3/4
Confidence
70.5%
Total
Over 2.5
Score
2:2
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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Match center
Lanus - LDU de Quito
Lanus: Win 1.65 Lanus: Draw 3.90 LDU de Quito Win: 5.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.65 Individualnyy total golov Lanus bolshe 1.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Lanus menshe 1.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov LDU de Quito bolshe…
Form
2/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:0
Events
15
Statistics
24
Lineups
46
min
Event
Player
Team
12'
12' Yellow Card | Yerlin Quinonez
Y. Quinonez
LDU de Quito
15'
15' Yellow Card | Tomás Guidara
T. Guidara
Lanus
45+4'
45+4' Yellow Card | Ramiro Carrera
R. Carrera
Lanus
45+5'
45+5' Yellow Card | Gian Franco Allala
G. Allala
LDU de Quito
53'
53' Yellow Card | Carlos Izquierdoz
C. Izquierdoz
Lanus
58'
58' Yellow Card | Jeison Medina
J. Medina
LDU de Quito
62'
62' Substitution 1 | Lucas Besozzi | assist/sub out: Dylan Aquino
L. Besozzi
Lanus
62'
62' Substitution 2 | Ramiro Carrera | assist/sub out: Yoshan Valois
R. Carrera
Lanus
Metric
Lanus
LDU de Quito
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
0.86
0.26
final
Zablokirovannye udary
3
3
final
Shots off target
3
4
final
Shots on target
5
1
final
Udary vsego
11
8
final
Fouls soversheno
11
8
final
Zheltye kartochki
3
3
final
Offsides
1
0
final
Lanus
#6 S. Marcich, #17 A. Medina, #23 R. Carrera, #26 N. Losada, #77 L. Besozzi, #5 F. PeG±a, #10 M. Moreno, #13 J. Canale, #11 E. Salvio, #24 C. Izquierdoz, #33 T. Guidara
LDU de Quito
#1 Gonzalo Valle, #7 R. Redes, #23 Y. Quinonez, #33 Leonel Enrique QuiG±Gіnez Padilla, #8 J. Pretell, #16 Deyverson, #44 Luis Segovia, #9 J. Medina, #15 G. VillamGl, #30 G. Allala, #14 JosG© Alfredo Quintero OrdGіG±ez
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
Edison Gomez
Seyvy
0
Patrick Ortiz
Seyvy
0
Ruddy Mina
football.player.assists
0
Ruddy Mina
Dribling popytki
1
Ruddy Mina
Edinoborstva vyigrano
1
Ruddy Mina
Seyvy
0
Ruddy Mina
Klyuchevye pasy
4
Ruddy Mina
Reyting (staryy)
6.7
Ruddy Mina
Otbory vsego
2
Alexander Antonio Alvarado Carriel
LDU de Quito
Seyvy
0
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Lanus
58.0%
-
market favourite
Draw
25.4%
100.0%
draw risk
LDU de Quito
16.5%
-
Total 2.5
Over 83.9%
-
Under 16.1%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.75
Favourite-trap risk
The match leans toward a high total
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.75
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
7.54
market consensus · line only
X
3.79
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.50
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
2.48
market consensus · line only
12
1.24
market consensus · line only
1X
1.09
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
2.58
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.90
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
6.60
market consensus · line only
1 -0.5
1.48
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.42
market consensus · weak value +103.1% · model 83.9%
Under 2.5
1.55
market consensus · no value · model 16.1%
Both teams to score
No
1.47
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.50
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 1.50 66.7% | |
| X | 3.90 25.6% |
| 7.50 13.3% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.48 67.6% | 1.51 66.2% | 1.65 60.6% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.47 68.0% | |
| X | 3.70 27.0% | 3.88 25.8% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.90 25.6% | 4.00 25.0% | 3.75 26.7% |
| 8.10 12.4% | 8.10 12.4% | 5.00 20.0% | 7.50 13.3% | 8.00 12.5% | 8.00 12.5% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.45 69.0% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.45 69.0% | 1.45 69.0% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.43 69.9% | 1.50 66.7% |
| yes | 2.55 39.2% | 2.58 38.8% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.62 38.2% | 2.60 38.5% | 2.55 39.2% | 2.63 38.0% | 2.58 38.8% | 2.35 42.6% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 2.55 39.2% | 2.59 38.6% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.60 38.5% | 2.63 38.0% |
| home_away | 1.22 82.0% | 1.27 78.7% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.24 80.7% | 1.25 80.0% |
| home_draw | 1.07 93.5% | 1.08 92.6% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.11 90.1% | 1.11 90.1% | 1.08 92.6% |
Match center
Lanus
Founded
1915
LDU de Quito
Founded
1930
Match center
Lanus
W
L
Lanus
1:0
Always Ready
Always Ready
Lanus
0:1
Mirassol
Mirassol
1
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
0.5
Scored
0.5
Conceded
3
Points
LDU de Quito
W
W
L
W
W
LDU de Quito
2:0
Mirassol
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
1:0
Always Ready
Always Ready
LDU de Quito
0:4
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
LDU de Quito
3:0
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
LDU de Quito
1:0
Sao Paulo
4
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
1.4
Scored
0.8
Conceded
12
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyLanus - LDU de Quito
Lanus
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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The Lanus - LDU de Quito breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form