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Start
15.04.2026 02:00 UTC
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15.04.2026 02:00 UTC
Finished
CONMEBOL Libertadores
LDU de Quito - Mirassol
2
:
0
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction LDU de Quito - Mirassol April 15, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like LDU de Quito.
Line favourite market consensus: LDU de Quito. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.75 / X 3.62 / 2 4.63
- 1X2 market: LDU de Quito 53.6% / X 26.0% / Mirassol 20.4%
- Glicko: LDU de Quito - / X 100.0% / Mirassol -
- Total 2.5: over probability 51.1%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.4%
1
53.7%
X
26.0%
2
20.3%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 5.6%
Over 2.5
49.3%
Under 2.5
50.7%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
4/6
Confidence
70.5%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
1:1
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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Match center
LDU de Quito - Mirassol
LDU de Quito: Win 1.67 LDU de Quito: Draw 3.60 Mirassol Win: 5.25 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.90 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.90 Individualnyy total golov LDU de Quito bolshe 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov LDU de Quito menshe 1.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total g…
Form
5/1
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
2:0
Events
17
Statistics
26
Lineups
36
min
Event
Player
Team
6'
6' Normal Goal
LDU de Quito
20'
20' Yellow Card | Luis Segovia
Anita Sakhdieva
LDU de Quito
34'
34' Normal Goal | José Quintero
Tamila Gadamauri
LDU de Quito
46'
46' Substitution 1 | Lucas Mugni | assist/sub out: Everton Galdino
Mirassol
59'
59' Yellow Card | Lucas Oliveira
A. Shami
Mirassol
62'
62' Substitution 2 | Antonio Galeano | assist/sub out: Tiquinho Soares
Mirassol
62'
62' Substitution 3 | Nathan Fogaça | assist/sub out: Alesson
Bono
Mirassol
67'
67' Substitution 4 | Negueba | assist/sub out: Edson Carioca
Mirassol
Metric
LDU de Quito
Mirassol
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
0.67
0.53
final
Zablokirovannye udary
1
2
final
Shots off target
12
1
final
Shots on target
5
2
final
Udary vsego
18
5
final
Fouls soversheno
16
5
final
Red cards
0
1
final
Zheltye kartochki
1
3
final
LDU de Quito
#1 Gonzalo Valle, #3 Richard Alexander Mina Caicedo, #8 J. Pretell, #13 J. Corozo, #14 JosG© Alfredo Quintero OrdGіG±ez, #15 G. VillamGl, #16 Deyverson, #20 F. Cornejo, #23 Y. Quinonez, #33 Leonel Enrique QuiG±Gіnez Padilla, #44 Luis Segovia
Mirassol
#9 Nathan Fogaça, #12 Victor Luis, #20 Daniel Borges, #22 Walter, #26 L. Mugni, #27 A. Galeano, #33 Eduardo, #34 João Victor
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
Carlos Eduardo
Seyvy
0
Neto Moura
Dribling popytki
1
Neto Moura
Edinoborstva vsego
1
Neto Moura
Edinoborstva vyigrano
1
Neto Moura
Seyvy
0
Neto Moura
football.player.minutes_played
76
Neto Moura
Klyuchevye pasy
54
Neto Moura
Reyting (staryy)
6.6
Neto Moura
Shots on target
1
Neto Moura
Otbory vsego
51
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
LDU de Quito
54.5%
-
market favourite
Draw
25.8%
100.0%
draw risk
Mirassol
19.6%
-
Total 2.5
Over 51.1%
-
Under 48.9%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.74
Favourite-trap risk
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.74
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
4.64
market consensus · line only
X
3.62
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.75
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
2.05
market consensus · line only
12
1.25
market consensus · line only
1X
1.18
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
2.10
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.57
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
4.47
market consensus · line only
2 +1
8.95
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.92
market consensus · no value · model 51.1%
Under 2.5
1.87
market consensus · no value · model 48.9%
Both teams to score
No
1.90
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.82
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Market 1
| Outcome | SStats Consensus |
|---|---|
| 1.75 57.1% | |
| X | 3.60 27.8% |
| 4.75 21.1% |
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.73 57.8% | 1.76 56.8% | 1.79 55.9% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.75 57.1% | |
| X | 3.45 29.0% | 3.65 27.4% | 3.70 27.0% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.85 26.0% | 3.50 28.6% |
| 4.90 20.4% | 3.90 25.6% | 4.68 21.4% | 4.75 21.1% | 5.10 19.6% | 4.75 21.1% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.90 52.6% | 1.99 50.3% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.88 53.2% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.94 51.6% |
| yes | 1.80 55.6% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.81 55.3% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.81 55.3% | 1.75 57.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 2.05 48.8% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.00 50.0% | 1.95 51.3% |
| home_away | 1.22 82.0% | 1.29 77.5% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.26 79.4% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.22 82.0% |
| home_draw | 1.17 85.5% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.20 83.3% |
Match center
LDU de Quito
Founded
1930
Mirassol
Founded
1925
Match center
LDU de Quito
W
L
W
W
W
LDU de Quito
1:0
Always Ready
Always Ready
LDU de Quito
0:4
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
LDU de Quito
3:0
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
LDU de Quito
1:0
Sao Paulo
LDU de Quito
2:0
Sao Paulo
4
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
1.4
Scored
0.8
Conceded
12
Points
Mirassol
W
Mirassol
1:0
Lanus
Lanus
1
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
1.0
Scored
0.0
Conceded
3
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyLDU de Quito - Mirassol
LDU de Quito
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form