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CONMEBOL Libertadores
CONMEBOL Libertadores World
28.04.2026 22:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
28.04.2026 22:00 UTC
Finished

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Libertad Asuncion - Independiente del Valle

World Football
Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
2 : 3
Finished
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Independiente del Valle — 42%

1 · Libertad Asuncion30.5%
X · draw27.5%
2 · Independiente del Valle42.0%

Model estimate: win Libertad Asuncion 30.5%, draw 27.5%, win Independiente del Valle 42.0%. Model favourite — Independiente del Valle.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Libertad Asuncion - Independiente del Valle April 28, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Independiente del Valle.

Strongest: Independiente del Valle - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.75 / X 3.01 / 2 2.68
  • 1X2 market: Libertad Asuncion 34.0% / X 31.1% / Independiente del Valle 34.9%
  • Glicko: Libertad Asuncion 30.5% / X 27.5% / Independiente del Valle 42.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 76.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.9%
1 34.0%
X 31.1%
2 34.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.0%
Over 2.5 40.3%
Under 2.5 59.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 3/4
Confidence 29.3%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:2

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 28.04.2026 22:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Independiente del Valle 42%
💹 Market Independiente del Valle 3490%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Libertad Asuncion - Independiente del Valle

Libertad Asuncion: Win 2.55 Libertad Asuncion: Draw 3.20 Independiente del Valle Win: 2.55 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.25 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Libertad Asuncion bolshe 1.5: 2.75 Individualnyy total golov Libertad Asuncion men…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:3
Events 20
Statistics 24
Lineups 82
min Event Player Team
33' 33' Normal Goal | C. González C. González Independiente del Valle
37' 37' Normal Goal | L. Melgarejo | assist/sub out: F. Carrizo L. Melgarejo Libertad Asuncion
46' 46' Substitution 1 | I. Franco | assist/sub out: M. Fernández I. Franco Libertad Asuncion
51' 51' Normal Goal | C. González C. González Independiente del Valle
54' 54' Yellow Card | Á. Campuzano A. Campuzano Libertad Asuncion
58' 58' Yellow Card | F. Carrizo F. Carrizo Libertad Asuncion
64' 64' Substitution 2 | L. Sanabria | assist/sub out: A. Molinas L. Sanabria Libertad Asuncion
64' 64' Substitution 3 | F. Carrizo | assist/sub out: G. Aguilar F. Carrizo Libertad Asuncion
Metric Libertad Asuncion Independiente del Valle SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.15 0.79 final
Zablokirovannye udary 0 3 final
Shots off target 4 5 final
Shots on target 4 6 final
Udary vsego 8 14 final
Fouls soversheno 8 14 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 2 final
Offsides 6 2 final
Libertad Asuncion #1 A. Quintana, #6 J. Alcívar, #11 M. Perelló, #13 Daykol Romero, #14 M. Carabajal, #16 Ronald Briones, #17 A. Rodríguez, #19 L. Loor, #33 Andy René Velasco García, #6 A. Campuzano, #10 L. Melgarejo
Independiente del Valle #3 R. Rojas, #4 N. Gimenez, #5 D. Viera, #6 A. Campuzano, #8 F. Carrizo, #10 L. Melgarejo, #12 R. M. Morinigo Acosta, #14 A. Fretes, #17 M. D. Espinoza Acosta, #18 I. Franco, #21 L. Sanabria
Player Team Metric SStats
Darwin Guagua football.player.assists 0
Darwin Guagua Dribling popytki 1
Darwin Guagua Dribling uspeshno 2
Darwin Guagua Edinoborstva vyigrano 3
Darwin Guagua Fouls na igroke 1
Darwin Guagua Seyvy 0
Darwin Guagua Klyuchevye pasy 5
Darwin Guagua Reyting (staryy) 6.2
Darwin Guagua Otbory vsego 5
Darwin Guagua Yellow cards 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Libertad Asuncion 34.3% 30.5%
Draw 30.4% 27.5% draw risk
Independiente del Valle 35.3% 42.0% market and model agree
xG - 1.07 : 1.31
Total 2.5 Over 76.2% - Under 23.8%
Model check - - Difference 0.07
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.07

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 30.5% / 27.5% / 42.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,426 / 1,605 Libertad Asuncion / Independiente del Valle
RD 204 / 210 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.69 market consensus · no value · model 42.0%
X 3.01 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.75 market consensus · no value · model 30.5%
Double chance
X2 1.41 market consensus · no value · model 69.5%
12 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 72.5%
1X 1.44 market consensus · no value · model 58.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.45 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.14 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.67 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.91 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.34 market consensus · weak value +78.2% · model 76.2%
Under 2.5 1.58 market consensus · no value · model 23.8%
Both teams to score
No 1.81 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.91 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.80 35.7%
X 3.00 33.3%
2.75 36.4%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.72 36.8% 2.82 35.5% 2.70 37.0% 2.80 35.7% 2.80 35.7% 2.75 36.4%
X 3.05 32.8% 3.06 32.7% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3%
2.68 37.3% 2.78 36.0% 2.63 38.0% 2.75 36.4% 2.77 36.1% 2.50 40.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.77 56.5% 1.77 56.5% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.85 54.1%
yes 1.95 51.3% 1.94 51.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.90 52.6% 1.95 51.3% 1.94 51.6% 1.83 54.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.47 68.0% 1.40 71.4%
home_away 1.30 76.9% 1.39 71.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2%
home_draw 1.45 69.0% 1.46 68.5% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.47 68.0% 1.50 66.7%
Match center
Libertad Asuncion
Founded 1905
Independiente del Valle
Founded 1958
Match center
Libertad Asuncion
L L D D D
15.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Libertad Asuncion 0:1 Rosario CentralRosario Central
09.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Libertad Asuncion 1:3 UCVUCV
22.08 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Libertad Asuncion 1:1 River Plate
15.08 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Libertad Asuncion 0:0 River Plate
27.05 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Libertad Asuncion 2:2 Alianza LimaAlianza Lima
0 Wins
3 Draws
2 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.4 Conceded
3 Points
Independiente del Valle
W D W L D
16.04 02:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Independiente del Valle 3:1 UCVUCV
09.04 22:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Independiente del Valle 0:0 Rosario CentralRosario Central
28.05 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Independiente del Valle 2:1 Barcelona SCBarcelona SC
16.05 00:30 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Independiente del Valle 2:6 River Plate
09.05 02:00 UTC CONMEBOL Libertadores
Independiente del Valle 1:1 UniversitarioUniversitario
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.8 Conceded
8 Points
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.